Take Brexit Britain and Trump’s America. Add climate change, instability in the Middle East, cryptocurrencies, and self-driving cars… and you have the world in 2018: hopeful, yet seemingly unpredictable.

We have assembled 11 unlikely events that - if they somehow happened - have the potential to profoundly affect the world as we know it.

To assess the political, economic, financial, and social impacts, IG brought together global economic/political experts to give their perspectives and predictions.

Explore some of the great unknowns facing us all today

football players

What If

The Qatar world cup is moved to another country

Pic: DSP

Corruption claims and concerns about workers’ rights have blighted Qatar since it won the chance to host the 2022 football world cup. FIFA has so far stood by its decision to award the tournament to the commodity-rich nation, despite the fact scorching temperatures in the desert country could make playing football a challenge. Will it bow to mounting public pressure to relocate the tournament?

Category: Politics Region: Middle East

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Our panel of experts (interviewed March-May 2018):

Robert Kelly

Robert Kelly

Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University

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Robert Kelly is a Professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University in South Korea. His work focuses on international security and political economy. His areas of interest are East Asian security, US foreign policy, the Middle East, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Kelly has appeared as an analyst on television news services, including the BBC and CNN.

Joshua Mahony

Joshua Mahony

Market Analyst, IG

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Joshua Mahony is a Market Analyst at IG. He joined IG in 2015 following a three-year stint as a forex market analyst. He has featured regularly within both written press and TV over the years. Coming from an economics background, Mahony has worked within Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital investment banks. He holds both CFTe and MSTA technical analysis qualifications.

John Phelan

John Phelan

Economist, Center of the American Experiment

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John Phelan is an economist with the Center of the American Experiment – a Minnesota-based think tank – and is a fellow of the Cobden Centre in the UK. Formerly an economist at Capital Economics, he has a BSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London, and an MSc from the London School of Economics. His writing has also appeared in the Wall Street Journal and City AM.

[ What if this happened? ]

Robert Kelly
Robert Kelly
Gulf monarchies would make cosmetic changes to their treatment of foreign labour and the rest of the world will yawn after a few days.
Joshua Mahony
Joshua Mahony
There would be heightened tension between the Qatari leadership and those perceived to have been influential in taking the decision.
John Phelan
John Phelan
People in Europe would develop some new respect for FIFA. Elsewhere, I think people would see it as just another example of Westerners making the rules. But I doubt there would be much more than that in terms of ramifications. I think the main effect would be to add one more (small) element to the narrative of grievance, not all of it without foundation, that the Middle East has towards the West.

[ Likelihood ]

We asked our experts to rate how likely it is that the Qatar world cup will be moved to another country.

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[ Impact ]

Panel members also rated the impact they would expect this event to have.

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The Political Impact

Robert Kelly

Robert Kelly

Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University

Even if the Qatar world cup is moved to another country, the Gulf states aren’t going to change a lucrative system because of some passing negative Western attention on CNN. The Gulf is corrupt and has a long, inglorious record of exploiting foreign labour. That much of this labour is also Muslim limits its visibility and the moral outrage that comes from abuse, but it is well known. North Koreans, Filipinos, and Africans have been found in these places too. So there would be some brief negative western press attention, but nothing near what would be required to push the country to change. International sports and cultural events are prestige-seeking ventures in these countries. They exist to create the veneer of modernisation and attract positive attention, but they are not actually relevant for the economy. If the government has to dispense with them, it is not costly enough to bring real local political change.
Joshua Mahony

Joshua Mahony

Market Analyst, IG

Relationships between the Qatari royals/leadership and the likes of the UK government would likely be strained, given that much of the initial FIFA corruption inquiry was triggered, in part, by a British newspaper investigation.
John Phelan

John Phelan

Economist, Center of the American Experiment

The effect would be small, I think. While this might add to resentment towards the West in the Middle East, it would be pretty small in terms of other past and present provocations.

The Economic Impact

Robert Kelly

Robert Kelly

Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University

Gulf cultural events like racing or golf are prestige-seeking affairs with little real impact on the region’s economies.
Joshua Mahony

Joshua Mahony

Market Analyst, IG

There would be a boost to the new host nation, with tourism, retail sales, hospitality and alcohol sales rising significantly. High street firms would gain the most, given the increased footfall, while hotels, bars and restaurants would also enjoy better business.
John Phelan

John Phelan

Economist, Center of the American Experiment

I think there would be little economic impact. The world cup is not an economic driver for Qatar, it could lose it and not be greatly put out, financially. There would be some effect for wherever the tournament moves to, but as it would likely be a rich country like England, Germany, or Italy, it would be pretty small in terms of the overall economy.
Russia, which is hosting the 2018 world cup, has seen spiralling costs. Its own government documents show the country has spent $11.8 billion on the football tournament, which takes place in June and July. While many countries which host the world cup consider the spending an investment into decades worth of infrastructure, it is very common for stadiums to not be used after the competition. One stadium in Brazil, Arena Pernambuco in Recife, can now be hired out for birthday parties.

The Financial Impact

Robert Kelly

Robert Kelly

Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University

There would perhaps be a bit of capital flight out of the Gulf for a few months, but nothing serious.
John Phelan

John Phelan

Economist, Center of the American Experiment

I wouldn’t imagine there would be much of an effect at all. Qatar is using the tournament to showcase its wealth, not to drive growth or redevelopment, as the UK did with the 2012 Olympics in east London.
Data shows that world cups have a couple of small but interesting effects on stock markets. In fact, during the 2010 world cup in South Africa, the number of trades made when the national team was playing fell by 45%, according to an European Central Bank study of 15 international stock exchanges. Every time a goal was scored, there was a further 5% drop in trading. The world cup-winning country is also likely to see its stock market rise, with a Goldman Sachs study finding that previous winners got a bump of 3.5% over the following month.

The Social Impact

Robert Kelly

Robert Kelly

Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University

It would be a blow for foreign labour all over the world and might encourage better treatment of populations such as itinerant labour from North Korea or the Philippines. NGOs would use this a major case in their activism.
Joshua Mahony

Joshua Mahony

Market Analyst, IG

There would be a greater feeling of persecution from the traditional European/US powers against Middle Eastern nations.
John Phelan

John Phelan

I think you would have anger across the Middle East. It would be seen as westerners imposing their standards on them, again. It wouldn’t have the impact that the Iraq War or Muhammad cartoons had, but there would be some effect and it would reinforce a narrative.

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