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It’s a long way back to the top for commodities, or even to the high levels seen at the beginning of this year. Commodity index trackers are a handy proxy here, with one ETF now at levels not seen since the second half of 2010. Not since mid-2012 have we seen such a steep decline in commodity prices, and with the US dollar still the place to be it looks like the losses are set to continue.
Gold could find resistance at $1180
We are seeing yet another oversold bounce in gold this morning, a course of events that is to be expected given the magnitude of the move downwards over the course of the last week.
First resistance is likely around $1180, and then on to $1200. Meanwhile, a drop lower would hit the lower end of support around $1150 and below this on to $1080.
Silver could return to $15.20
Silver has recovered the $16.00 level this morning as it goes through its oversold bounce. However, even a sustained rally from this point takes us back to $16.90 and then July downtrend, still unbroken despite a number of efforts over the past 12 weeks.
Further losses will take us in the direction of $15.20, the 2010 lows, with a stronger dollar being the primary driver here.
Brent targets $83
Dips towards $82 have been bought this morning so $83 is the first target as the commodity works off its oversold condition on the intraday relative strength index. The $83.60 level is the next area of potential resistance, while a fall below $82 puts us on course to $80.60.
WTI likely heading for 2011 lows
It is but a short hop to the 2011 lows here for WTI, around $75, and it seems almost certain that we will see this in coming weeks, even allowing for a bounce in the short term towards $79.50 and then to $80.10.