Levels to watch: FTSE, DAX and Dow

Market sell off stutters as we reach a crucial inflection point for another possible move lower. With the FTSE 100 currently at support, we could see the UK market lead Europe and the US.

Source: Bloomberg

FTSE bounce fails to hold as we return to key support

The bounce we saw mid-week in the FTSE has failed to hold with a strong Friday sell off providing the platform for today’s significant gap lower on the open. This has brought us back to the 38.2% retracement support level (6723), which is in close proximity to today’s low so far.

The question is whether we will break below this level for another round of selling to ensue. Given the relative brevity of the move higher last week, I am inclined to believe we will see a break below 6723, yet until that happens I am more neutral as a second bounce higher also seems likely. Clearly these markets are significantly impacted by the Greek crisis and as it stands, there is not going to be any positive resolution for some time. This could drag the indices lower yet.

FTSE 100 chart

DAX returns to inside trendline support

The bounce higher from the 38.2% retracement (10,856) last week saw us move back up to the 23.6% resistance point and start to sell off. We are now seeing a bounce higher from the inside trendline and that would point to an initial move up to 11,166 for the DAX. Essentially a move below this trendline (currently 10,990) would point towards the 10,856 level coming into play.

With the stochastics at oversold and likely to turn higher soon, there is a clear possibility of a bounce and should we see it occur without moving below 10,856, then it would mean the creation of a higher low. However, for now we await the response to this trendline which will be key to determining whether we are set to create a new higher high (above 11,485) or lower low (below 10,856) to give medium-term direction.

DAX chart

Dow sells from triangle apex and holds up in no man’s land

Much like the DAX, the Dow Jones is held up some distance above the major support level that provided the bounce higher last week. Essentially we need to either see a break below 17,686 to bring a bearish continuation picture into play, or else a move higher from support above 17,686, which would point towards the creation of a higher low and thus a more bullish outlook. With the FTSE representing the one major market which is currently at the inflection point, it is likely that the Dow is holding up owing to the relationship with that market.

Thus a break below 6723 in the FTSE could bring about a greater likeliness that the Dow will fall below 17,686. But for now, we are in a wait and see mode to determine whether we are going to see a break below 17,686 (which would point towards 17,549) or a bounce higher from here (pointing towards 18,111).

Dow Jones chart

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