The Week Ahead
Week commencing 20 July
Chris Beauchamp's insight
It is a busy week for global markets, which are already under pressure due to the resurgence of the US-Iran war and a rout in chip stocks. Earnings season is in full flow, and Tesla and Alphabet are the first of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report earnings, along with a host of others. In the UK there are plenty of trading statements, including JDWetherspoon, Fresnillo and easyJet.
Economic data includes UK inflation, unemployment and retail sales data, plus and ECB rate decision while Friday sees the latest batch of PMIs from around the globe.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
1.30pm – Canada inflation (June): prices expected to have risen 3% YoY and fallen 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
7am – UK unemployment data: May unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.9%. Average earnings including bonus forecast to have risen 4% in the 3 months to May, down from 4.4% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (July): economic sentiment index expected to fall to 7 from 10.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
7am – UK inflation (June): consumer price inflation expected to be 2.4% YoY and -0.1% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.2% respectively, while YoY core CPI rises to 2.7% from 2.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 17 July): stockpiles fell by 1.7 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 18 July), Chicago Fed index (June): claims expected to rise to 210K from 208K, and Chicago Fed index expected to rise to 0.14 from -0.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July): expected to fall to -18.6 from -17.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30am – Japan inflation (June): prices forecast to rise 1.7% YoY from 1.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.30am – Japan PMI (July, flash): manufacturing index expected to fall to 54.3 from 54.8, and services to rise to 53 from 52.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – German consumer confidence (August): forecast to fall to -30 from -29.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
7am – UK retail sales (June): sales forecast to rise 0.3% MoM from 1.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – Germany PMI (July, flash): manufacturing activity forecast to fall into contraction, falling to 49.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (July, flash): manufacturing activity expected to weaken to 52 from 52.2, while services improves to 49.3 from 48.8. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (July, flash): manufacturing expected to fall to 53 from 53.9, and services to fall to 51 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
1.30pm – Canada inflation (June): prices expected to have risen 3% YoY and fallen 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Tuesday
7am – UK unemployment data: May unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.9%. Average earnings including bonus forecast to have risen 4% in the 3 months to May, down from 4.4% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (July): economic sentiment index expected to fall to 7 from 10.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation (June): consumer price inflation expected to be 2.4% YoY and -0.1% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.2% respectively, while YoY core CPI rises to 2.7% from 2.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 17 July): stockpiles fell by 1.7 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 18 July), Chicago Fed index (June): claims expected to rise to 210K from 208K, and Chicago Fed index expected to rise to 0.14 from -0.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July): expected to fall to -18.6 from -17.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan inflation (June): prices forecast to rise 1.7% YoY from 1.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.30am – Japan PMI (July, flash): manufacturing index expected to fall to 54.3 from 54.8, and services to rise to 53 from 52.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – German consumer confidence (August): forecast to fall to -30 from -29.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
7am – UK retail sales (June): sales forecast to rise 0.3% MoM from 1.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – Germany PMI (July, flash): manufacturing activity forecast to fall into contraction, falling to 49.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (July, flash): manufacturing activity expected to weaken to 52 from 52.2, while services improves to 49.3 from 48.8. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (July, flash): manufacturing expected to fall to 53 from 53.9, and services to fall to 51 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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