The Week Ahead
Week commencing 27 October
Chris Beauchamp insight
It is an action-packed week to round off October. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates, as is its Canadian counterpart, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) are both forecast to hold steady. Third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) for the US, the eurozone and Germany are published too, along with the monthly durable goods figures.
Earnings season in the US reaches its peak, as four more Magnificent 7 companies report earnings, along with oil giants Exxon and Chevron, while in the UK it is the turn of HSBC, Shell, GSK and Standard Chartered to report quarterly figures, plus trading updates from UK economy bellwethers JDWetherspoon and Next.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
9am – German IFO index (October): index expected to fall to 87 from 87.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US durable goods orders (September): expected to fall 1.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2pm – US consumer confidence (October): index expected to fall to 93 from 94.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
12.30am – Australia inflation for third quarter (Q3): prices expected to rise 2.9% year-on-year (YoY). Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be cut by 25bps to 2.25%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
2.30pm – EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 24 October): stockpiles fell by 960,000 barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
6pm – Fed rate decision: a 25bps cut is expected, as the Fed’s easing efforts continue. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3am – Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision: rates expected to be held at 0.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses, Nikkei 225
9am – German GDP (Q3, flash): growth expected to recover to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from -0.3%, but slow to 0.1% YoY from 0.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone GDP (Q3, flash): QoQ growth to hold at 0.1% while YoY to slow to 1.1% from 1.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US GDP (Q3, advance reading): QoQ to hold at 3.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1pm – German inflation (October, preliminary): prices expected to grow 2.3% YoY and 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), from 2.4% and 0.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.15%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30am – China purchasing managers index (PMI) (October): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 50.2, back in expansion territory, while non-manufacturing rises to 50.4. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (October, flash): prices expected to rise 2.1% YoY from 2.2%, and 0.2% from 0.1% MoM. Core inflation forecast to slow to 2.3% from 2.4% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (September): core prices expected to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.45pm – US Chicago PMI (October): expected to rise to 42 from 40.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
9am – German IFO index (October): index expected to fall to 87 from 87.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US durable goods orders (September): expected to fall 1.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
2pm – US consumer confidence (October): index expected to fall to 93 from 94.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
12.30am – Australia inflation (Q3): prices expected to rise 2.9% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be cut by 25bps to 2.25%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
2.30pm – EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 24 October): stockpiles fell by 960,000 barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
6pm – Fed rate decision: a 25bps cut is expected, as the Fed’s easing efforts continue. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
3am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates expected to be held at 0.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses, Nikkei 225
9am – German GDP (Q3, flash): growth expected to recover to 0.1% QoQ from -0.3%, but slow to 0.1% YoY from 0.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone GDP (Q3, flash): QoQ growth to hold at 0.1% while YoY to slow to 1.1% from 1.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US GDP (Q3, advance reading): QoQ to hold at 3.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1pm – German inflation (October, preliminary): prices expected to grow 2.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 2.4% and 0.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.15%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
Friday
1.30am – China PMI (October): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 50.2, back in expansion territory, while non-manufacturing rises to 50.4. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (October, flash): prices expected to rise 2.1% YoY from 2.2%, and 0.2% from 0.1% MoM. Core inflation forecast to slow to 2.3% from 2.4% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.30pm – US PCE price index (September): core prices expected to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.45pm – US Chicago PMI (October): expected to rise to 42 from 40.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (30th October):
FTSE 100: JD Sports, Whitbread
FTSE 250: Balfour Beatty, Hilton Food, Dunelm, Kier, Foresight Solar, Renishaw
Index adjustments
|
Monday 27 October |
Tuesday 28 October |
Wednesday 29 October |
Thursday 30 October |
Friday 31 October |
Monday 3 November |
| FTSE 100 | 0.29 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.4 | |||||
| Wall Street | ||||||
| US 500 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.37 | 0.07 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 2.47 | 0.30 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | 0.30 | |||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| China H-Shares | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | |||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 5.9 | 0.8 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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