The Week Ahead
Week commencing 01 June
Axel Rudolph’s insight
This week US PMIs and employment reports, eurozone inflation data and crude oil inventories will be watched closely as they may give an indication of whether the ‘rates higher for longer’ scenario remains on the cards. The tail end of earnings season sees Hewlett Packard, Broadcom, Lululemon reporting in the US and Mitie, Paragon Banking, B&M European Value Retail in the UK.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
2.45am – China RatingDog PMI (May): expected to fall to 51.9 from 52.2. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (May): expected at 53.0 versus previous reading of 52.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (May, flash): prices expected to rise by 3.4% versus 3% YoY and 0.2% versus 1% MoM in April, core inflation forecast at 2.3% versus 2.2% YoY a month earlier. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – JOLTs Job Openings (Apr): forecast at 6.8m versus 6.866m in the previous month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
9.30pm – US API crude oil inventories (w/e 29 May): stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
2.30am – Australia GDP (Q1): growth forecast to slow to 0.5% from 0.8% QoQ, and 2.5% from 2.6% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (May): 75K jobs forecast to have been created, down from 109K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ADP ISM Services PMI (May) and Factory Orders (Apr): expected to fall to 53.0 from 53.6 in the previous month and factory orders to rise by 2.7% from 1.5% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 29 May): stocks declined by 3.327m in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
9.30am – UK construction PMI (May): expected to rise to 40.3 from 39.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 30 May): forecast at 216K versus 215K in the week before. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (May): payrolls expected to fall to 102K from 115K, unemployment rate forecast to rise to 4.4% from 4.3%. Average hourly earnings to hold at 0.2% MoM and to fall to 3.5% from 3.6% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment report (May): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.9%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (May): forecast to fall to 51 from 57.7. Markets to watch: CAD crosse
Monday
2.45am – China RatingDog PMI (May): expected to fall to 51.9 from 52.2. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (May): expected at 53.0 versus previous reading of 52.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
10am – eurozone inflation (May, flash): prices expected to rise by 3.4% versus 3% YoY and 0.2% versus 1% MoM in April, core inflation forecast at 2.3% versus 2.2% YoY a month earlier. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – JOLTs Job Openings (Apr): forecast at 6.8m versus 6.866m in the previous month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
9.30pm – US API crude oil inventories (w/e 29 May): stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Wednesday
2.30am – Australia GDP (Q1): growth forecast to slow to 0.5% from 0.8% QoQ, and 2.5% from 2.6% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (May): 75K jobs forecast to have been created, down from 109K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ADP ISM Services PMI (May) and Factory Orders (Apr): expected to fall to 53.0 from 53.6 in the previous month and factory orders to rise by 2.7% from 1.5% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 29 May): stocks declined by 3.327m in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
9.30am – UK construction PMI (May): expected to rise to 40.3 from 39.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 30 May): forecast at 216K versus 215K in the week before. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (May): payrolls expected to fall to 102K from 115K, unemployment rate forecast to rise to 4.4% from 4.3%. Average hourly earnings to hold at 0.2% MoM and to fall to 3.5% from 3.6% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment report (May): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.9%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (May): forecast to fall to 51 from 57.7. Markets to watch: CAD crosse
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (4 June):
FTSE 100: Sainsbury, Vodafone,Marks & Spencer, Londonmetric, Sage
FTSE 250: WPP, Computacenter, Marshalls, Law Debenture, Energean, AJ Bell, Great Portland Estates, Pets at Home, Foresight Environmental Infrastructure, Johnson Matthey
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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