The Week Ahead
Week commencing 28 September
Chris Beauchamp's insight
US payrolls dominate the week, as expectations of an October rate hike by the Fed continue to rise. A solid payrolls report would give the chances of the Fed raising rates another boost. China PMIs sit squarely in the middle of the week, plus the US ISM manufacturing PMI, while the Australian central bank meets, though no change is expected. It is a week for retailers and hospitality on the corporate side, including JD Wetherspoon, Greggs and Nike.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
None
5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
3pm – US consumer confidence (September): index expected to fall to 89 from 89.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.30am – Australia Inflation (August): consumer price inflation expected to be 0.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY, from 1% and 3.5% respectively. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
2.30am – China NBS PMI (September): the official China PMI is expected to see manufacturing activity improve, with the index rising to 50 from 49.8, and non-manufacturing to rise to 49.6 from 49. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
2.45am – China RatingDog PMI (September): manufacturing PMI expected to hold at 51.5 and services to rise to 51.7 from 51.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
8.55am – German employment data (September): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German inflation (September, preliminary): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY from 2.9%, and 0.4% from 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (September): 49,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from 38,000 in August. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final), PCE price index (August): GDP expected to be unrevised at 1.5% QoQ. Core PCE prices expected to be 0.3% MoM from 0.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): expected to fall to 46.9 from 47.1. Markets to watch: USD crossed
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 25 September): stockpiles rose by 2.9 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
12.50am – Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q3): forecast to rise to 23 from 22. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 26 September): claims expected to fall to 195K from 197K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (September): index expected to fall to 54 from 54.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (September, flash): prices expected to rise 3.4% from 3.2% YoY, and 0.3% MoM from 0.4%. Core inflation expected to be 2.5% YoY from 2.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (September): payrolls expected to rise by 90,000, down from 162,000 a month earlier. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY from 0.3% and 3.1% respectively. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Monday
None
Tuesday
5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
3pm – US consumer confidence (September): index expected to fall to 89 from 89.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
2.30am – Australia Inflation (August): consumer price inflation expected to be 0.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY, from 1% and 3.5% respectively. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
2.30am – China NBS PMI (September): the official China PMI is expected to see manufacturing activity improve, with the index rising to 50 from 49.8, and non-manufacturing to rise to 49.6 from 49. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
2.45am – China RatingDog PMI (September): manufacturing PMI expected to hold at 51.5 and services to rise to 51.7 from 51.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
8.55am – German employment data (September): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German inflation (September, preliminary): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY from 2.9%, and 0.4% from 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (September): 49,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from 38,000 in August. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final), PCE price index (August): GDP expected to be unrevised at 1.5% QoQ. Core PCE prices expected to be 0.3% MoM from 0.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): expected to fall to 46.9 from 47.1. Markets to watch: USD crossed
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 25 September): stockpiles rose by 2.9 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
12.50am – Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q3): forecast to rise to 23 from 22. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 26 September): claims expected to fall to 195K from 197K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (September): index expected to fall to 54 from 54.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
10am – eurozone inflation (September, flash): prices expected to rise 3.4% from 3.2% YoY, and 0.3% MoM from 0.4%. Core inflation expected to be 2.5% YoY from 2.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (September): payrolls expected to rise by 90,000, down from 162,000 a month earlier. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY from 0.3% and 3.1% respectively. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (1 October):
FTSE 100: British American Tobacco, Weir, Smith & Nephew
FTSE 250: Kainos, Morgan Sindall, Bodycote, Breedon, Travis Perins, TP Icap. RIT Capital, Murray Int’l, Hunting, Wickes, Pantheon
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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