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The Week Ahead

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Week commencing 26 July

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

US earnings season is in full flow, but we have plenty of UK news as well on the corporate front. Companies from a range of sectors provide updates, but key ones this week include FANG stocks like Apple and UK banks. Economic data is busy too, with durable goods orders in the US and the first Q2 GDP readings for the US and Germany. Plus the world’s most important central bank, the US Federal Reserve, meets to decide on policy. While no change is expected some discussion about the course of the asset purchase programme may take place.

Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

9am – German IFO index (July): expected to rise to 102.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (June): sales to fall 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): orders to rise 2.1% MoM, and 0.8% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US consumer confidence (July): index to fall to 125.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.30am – Australia CPI (Q2): prices to rise 1% QoQ and 4% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): expected to fall to -2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30ppm – Canada CPI (June): prices to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 23 July): stockpiles rose by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – FOMC rate decision: no change in policy expected, but some discussion on a change to QE may take place. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

8.55am – German unemployment rate (July): expected to hold at 5.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to rise 3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses.

1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, first reading), initial jobless claims (w/e 24 July): growth expected to be 8% QoQ from 6.4%, claims to fall to 390K from 419K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (June): expected to fall 1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

12.30am – Japan unemployment rate (June): forecast to fall to 2.9%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): growth to be 1.5% from -1.8% QoQ and 9.2% from -3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

10am – eurozone inflation (July), GDP (Q2, flash): prices to rise 2.6% YoY and GDP to grow 1.5% QoQ and 12.6% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June), PCE prices: spending to rise 0.5% and income to rise 0.2% MoM, while PCE prices rise 0.6% MoM and 4.2% YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (July): index to edge down to 66. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence (July, final): expected to fall to 81.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Monday

9am – German IFO index (July): expected to rise to 102.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (June): sales to fall 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Tuesday

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): orders to rise 2.1% MoM, and 0.8% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US consumer confidence (July): index to fall to 125.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

2.30am – Australia CPI (Q2): prices to rise 1% QoQ and 4% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): expected to fall to -2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30ppm – Canada CPI (June): prices to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 23 July): stockpiles rose by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – FOMC rate decision: no change in policy expected, but some discussion on a change to QE may take place. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Thursday

8.55am – German unemployment rate (July): expected to hold at 5.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to rise 3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, first reading), initial jobless claims (w/e 24 July): growth expected to be 8% QoQ from 6.4%, claims to fall to 390K from 419K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (June): expected to fall 1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Friday

12.30am – Japan unemployment rate (June): forecast to fall to 2.9%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): growth to be 1.5% from -1.8% QoQ and 9.2% from -3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

10am – eurozone inflation (July), GDP (Q2, flash): prices to rise 2.6% YoY and GDP to grow 1.5% QoQ and 12.6% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June), PCE prices: spending to rise 0.5% and income to rise 0.2% MoM, while PCE prices rise 0.6% MoM and 4.2% YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (July): index to edge down to 66. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence (July, final): expected to fall to 81.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Dividends

FTSE 100: Royal Mail, SSE

FTSE 250: Qinetiq, Monks Inv Trust, Bankers Inv Trust, BB Healthcare Trust, Hipgnosis Songs Fund

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

Monday
26 July
Tuesday
27 July
Wednesday
28 July
Thursday
29 July
Friday
30 July
Monday
2 August
FTSE 100

2.51
Australia 200
Wall Street
US 500 0.02 0.04 0.52 0.34 0.02 0.00
Nasdaq 0.37 0.25
Netherlands 25 0.14
EU Stocks 50
China H-Shares
Singapore Blue Chip 0.10
Hong Kong HS50
South Africa 40
Italy 40
Japan 225 1.5

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