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Week commencing 25 September
Chris Beauchamp's insight
After the excitement of last week, attention this week turns to US durable goods orders and the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. French, German and eurozone inflation will be key for near-term direction of the euro. Key corporate reports include ASOS, H&M, Nike and Carnival.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
9am – German IFO index (September): index expected to fall to 84.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (August): expected to rise to 0.15. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US new home sales (August), consumer confidence (September): sales to fall 1.7% MoM and confidence forecast to weaken, falling to 106.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to -24.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (August): orders to fall 2.9% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 22 Sept): stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): prices to rise 5.9% YoY and 0.6% MoM, from 6.1% and 0.3% in August. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 23 September), GDP (Q2, final): claims forecast to rise to 205K from 201K, and GDP to be revised to 2.2% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (August): sales expected to rise 0.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45am – China Caixin services & manufacturing PMI (September): manufacturing PMI expected to drop back into contraction territory, falling to 49, while services rises to 52.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
7.45 am – French CPI (September, preliminary): prices forecast to rise 4.8% YoY and fall 0.7% MoM, compared o 4.9% and a 1% rise in August. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
8.55am – German unemployment data (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.7%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (September, flash): prices expected to rise 5.5% YoY and 0.5% MoM, compared to 5.2% and 0.5% in August. Core CPI forecast to rise 4.5% YoY, a slowdown from August’s 5.3%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US PCE price index (August): the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE index forecast to rise 3.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM, compared to 3.3% and 0.2% in July. Core PCE expected to be 0.2%, in line with July. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): index forecast to rise to 49. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
9am – German IFO index (September): index expected to fall to 84.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (August): expected to rise to 0.15. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
3pm – US new home sales (August), consumer confidence (September): sales to fall 1.7% MoM and confidence forecast to weaken, falling to 106.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to -24.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (August): orders to fall 2.9% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 22 Sept): stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): prices to rise 5.9% YoY and 0.6% MoM, from 6.1% and 0.3% in August. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 23 September), GDP (Q2, final): claims forecast to rise to 205K from 201K, and GDP to be revised to 2.2% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (August): sales expected to rise 0.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
2.45am – China Caixin services & manufacturing PMI (September): manufacturing PMI expected to drop back into contraction territory, falling to 49, while services rises to 52.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
7.45 am – French CPI (September, preliminary): prices forecast to rise 4.8% YoY and fall 0.7% MoM, compared o 4.9% and a 1% rise in August. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
8.55am – German unemployment data (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.7%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (September, flash): prices expected to rise 5.5% YoY and 0.5% MoM, compared to 5.2% and 0.5% in August. Core CPI forecast to rise 4.5% YoY, a slowdown from August’s 5.3%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US PCE price index (August): the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE index forecast to rise 3.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM, compared to 3.3% and 0.2% in July. Core PCE expected to be 0.2%, in line with July. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): index forecast to rise to 49. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
|
Monday 25 September |
Tuesday 26 September |
Wednesday 27 September |
Thursday 28 September |
Friday 29 September |
Full-year earnings |
Ferguson, PZ Cussons, Close Brothers |
||||
Half/ Quarterly earnings |
AG Barr, Costco |
Saga, Old Mutual, Pendragon, H&M, Micron Tech |
Avacta, Nike |
Carnival | |
Trading update* |
| United Utilities, ASOS |
|
Dividends
FTSE 100: British American Tobacco, Rightmove, Smurfit Kappa, Barratt Developments, Phoenix Group, M&G
FTSE 250: Kainos, TP ICAP, Foresight Group, Petershill Partners, Computacenter, Games Workshop, Hipgnosis Songs Fund
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index adjustments
|
Monday 25 September |
Tuesday 26 September |
Wednesday 27 September |
Thursday 28 September |
Friday 29 September |
Monday 2 October |
| FTSE 100 | 7.65 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.6 | 0.1 | ||||
| Wall Street | 2.6 | |||||
| US 500 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.56 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Nasdaq | 1.12 | 3.55 | ||||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| EU Stocks 50 | ||||||
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | 143.6 | |||||
| Italy 40 | ||||||
| Japan 225 | 222.3 |
* Please note these can change without notice
* Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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