The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 22 September
Chris Beauchamp insight
After last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut the focus this week shifts to other indicators of economic data, namely the purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs). Tuesday is global PMI day, though the main ones to watch for most traders will be Germany, the United Kingdom (UK) and United States (US). Durable goods orders provide another view on the health of the US economy. The week is rounded off by the personal consumption index and its associated price index. While this is the Fed’s preferred measure of price inflation, the market continues to put more focus on the consumer price index (CPI) reading earlier in the month.
Corporate news is still relatively light, but after last week’s warning from Next UK investors will be watching Kingfisher and JD Sports for other signs of consumer weakness.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed activity index (August): index expected to rise to -0.17 from -0.19. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September): forecast to rise to -14.8 from -15.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
8.30am – German PMI (September, flash): index forecast to move back to expansion territory, at 50, from 40.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (September, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49 from 47, services to fall to 51.7 from 54.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (September, flash): manufacturing index to fall to 52 from 53. Services PMI to fall to 53 from 54.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
9am – German IFO business (September): index expected to drop to 88.4 from 89. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US new home sales (August): sales expected to fall 3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 19 September): stockpiles fell by 9.3 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (August), initial jobless claims (w/e 20 September): goods orders expected to fall 1.5%, from a 2.8% drop in July. Claims expected to rise to 238K from 231K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (August): forecast to rise 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (August): prices according to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation are expected to rise 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed activity index (August): index expected to rise to -0.17 from -0.19. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September): forecast to rise to -14.8 from -15.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday
8.30am – German PMI (September, flash): index forecast to move back to expansion territory, at 50, from 40.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (September, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49 from 47, services to fall to 51.7 from 54.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (September, flash): manufacturing index to fall to 52 from 53. Services PMI to fall to 53 from 54.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Wednesday
9am – German IFO business (September): index expected to drop to 88.4 from 89. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US new home sales (August): sales expected to fall 3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 19 September): stockpiles fell by 9.3 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (August), initial jobless claims (w/e 20 September): goods orders expected to fall 1.5%, from a 2.8% drop in July. Claims expected to rise to 238K from 231K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (August): forecast to rise 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
1.30pm – US PCE price index (August): prices according to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation are expected to rise 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Full-year earnings |
Smiths |
|
|
||
Half/ Quarterly earnings |
Raspberry Pi, Kingfisher, Micron Technology |
JD Sports, Target Healthcare |
Halma | Pennon | |
| Trading update |
|
|
|
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (25 September):
FTSE 100: Rightmove, Endeavour Mining, Phoenix
FTSE 250: Drax, Lion Finance, Alfa Financial, Computacenter, Harworth, Pollen Street, JTC
Index adjustments
|
Monday 22 September |
Tuesday 23 September |
Wednesday 24 September |
Thursday 25 September |
Friday 26 September |
Monday 29 September |
| FTSE 100 | 1.59 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| Wall Street | ||||||
| US 500 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.57 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.86 | |||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 1.07 |
| China H-Shares | 0.9 | |||||
| Japan 225 | 298.8 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 2.4 | 1.6 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | 95 | |||||
| France 40 | 12.3 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 3.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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