The Week Ahead

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Week commencing 12 August

For information for week commencing 19 August, sign up above to receive a link straight to your inbox.

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

UK and US CPI and retail sales, plus German GDP, are the key economic events of the week. Earnings season is winding down, but numbers from Cisco and NVIDIA will make tech stocks an interesting sector to watch. Aside from the weekly data, the ongoing drumbeat of trade wars and the shift to dovish policy from central banks will be the main drivers of activity.

Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

None

7am – German inflation rate (July, final): forecast to rise to 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK employment data: July claimant count to fall to 22,800 from 38,000, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%. Meanwhile, average earnings to rise 3.5% in June, down from 3.6% for May. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW (August): forecast to rise to -22.3 from -24.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US CPI (July): prices to rise 1.7% YoY in July from 1.6%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to rise 2.1% YoY, in line with last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30am – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (August): index to rise to 98.7 from 96.5. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): growth to be 0.4% QoQ and 0.7% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK CPI (July): forecast to rise to 2.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): growth expected to be 0.2% QoQ and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 9 August): stockpiles expected to fall by 2.8 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

2.30am – Australia unemployment (July): rate to hold a 5.2%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK retail sales (July): sales to rise 3.2% in July from 3.85 in June. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (July), initial jobless claims (w/e 10 August), Philadelphia Fed index (August): sales to rise 0.3% MoM in July from 0.4% in June, while claims fall to 205K from 209K. Philly Fed index to fall to 5 from 21.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (July): starts to rise 1.5% MoM and permits to rise 4.8% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence index (August): confidence to fall to 95.1 from 98.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Monday

None

Tuesday

7am – German inflation rate (July, final): forecast to rise to 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK employment data: July claimant count to fall to 22,800 from 38,000, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%. Meanwhile, average earnings to rise 3.5% in June, down from 3.6% for May. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW (August): forecast to rise to -22.3 from -24.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US CPI (July): prices to rise 1.7% YoY in July from 1.6%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to rise 2.1% YoY, in line with last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

1.30am – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (August): index to rise to 98.7 from 96.5. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): growth to be 0.4% QoQ and 0.7% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK CPI (July): forecast to rise to 2.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): growth expected to be 0.2% QoQ and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 9 August): stockpiles expected to fall by 2.8 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

2.30am – Australia unemployment (July): rate to hold a 5.2%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK retail sales (July): sales to rise 3.2% in July from 3.85 in June. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (July), initial jobless claims (w/e 10 August), Philadelphia Fed index (August): sales to rise 0.3% MoM in July from 0.4% in June, while claims fall to 205K from 209K. Philly Fed index to fall to 5 from 21.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Friday

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (July): starts to rise 1.5% MoM and permits to rise 4.8% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence index (August): confidence to fall to 95.1 from 98.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Company announcements

Monday 12 August

Tuesday 13 August

Wednesday 14 August

Thursday 15 August

Friday 16 August

Full-year earnings

Half/Quarterly earnings

Clarkson

Henkel,
TUI

Balfour Beatty,
Admiral,
Prudential,
Macy's,
Cisco

KAZ Minerals,
Walmart,
JC Penney,
NVIDIA

Trading update

Card Factory

Dividends

Upcoming

FTSE 100: Ashtead, Segro, Anglo American, Shell (A & B), Mondi, RBS, HSBC, Phoenix Group, Legal & General, Standard Life Aberdeen

FTSE 250: Provident Financial, Ibstock, Renewables Infrastructure, Ferrexpo

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

Monday 12 August Tuesday 13 August Wednesday 14 August Thursday 15 August Friday 16 August Monday 19 August
FTSE 100 29.78
Australia 200 19.8 0.1 2.0 0.8
Wall Street 3.1 16.4 8.1 3.1
US 500 0.11 0.84 0.76 0.47 0.17 0.22
Nasdaq 0.10 3.89 0.37 0.39 0.54
France 40 0.2
Netherlands 25 1.22 0.2
EU Stocks 50
China H-Shares
Singapore Blue Chip 2.58
Hong Kong HS50 33.0 3.2
South Africa 40 94.1
Italy 40
Japan 225

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Week commencing 19 August

Joshua Mahony’s insight

With market volatility on the rise, traders are very sensitive to bad news as demand for havens gain traction. This week sees a focus on the eurozone with European Central Bank (ECB) minutes and purchasing managers index (PMI) surveys released throughout the week. That central bank focus remains relevant given Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium kicking off at the tail end of the week. Meanwhile, Canadian consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales figures will ensure volatility for CAD.

On the corporate front, earnings season continues to trail off, yet releases from the likes of Persimmon, BHP Group, Salesforce.com, Gap, and HP ensure that we still see volatility from the equity front.

Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

10am – eurozone inflation (July, final): prices to rise 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (July, final): prices to rise 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

2.30am – RBA meeting minutes: these cover the discussion at the last policy meeting. Markets to watch: AUD crosses2.30am – RBA meeting minutes: these cover the discussion at the last policy meeting. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (July): prices expected to rise 2% YoY and fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (July): sales to fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 16 August): previous weekly stocks figure came in at 1.58 million. Markets to watch: Brent and WTI crude

7pm – FOMC minutes: these will help explain the decision to cut rates at the last meeting. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

8.30am – German mfg PMI (August, flash): expected to rise to 45.2 from 43.2, remaining solidly in contraction territory. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9am – eurozone mfg & services PMI (August, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 47.6 from 46.5 and services to rise to 53.3 from 53.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 17 August): expected to fall from 220k from 205k. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg PMI (August, flash): expected to rise to 51 from 50.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (August, flash): index to fall to -7 from -6.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

12.30am – Japan CPI (July): prices to rise 0.8% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

3pm – US new home sales (July): forecast to rise 6% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Monday

10am – eurozone inflation (July, final): prices to rise 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (July, final): prices to rise 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday

2.30am – RBA meeting minutes: these cover the discussion at the last policy meeting. Markets to watch: AUD crosses2.30am – RBA meeting minutes: these cover the discussion at the last policy meeting. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

Wednesday

1.30pm – Canada CPI (July): prices expected to rise 2% YoY and fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (July): sales to fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 16 August): previous weekly stocks figure came in at 1.58 million. Markets to watch: Brent and WTI crude

7pm – FOMC minutes: these will help explain the decision to cut rates at the last meeting. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Thursday

8.30am – German mfg PMI (August, flash): expected to rise to 45.2 from 43.2, remaining solidly in contraction territory. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9am – eurozone mfg & services PMI (August, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 47.6 from 46.5 and services to rise to 53.3 from 53.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 17 August): expected to fall from 220k from 205k. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg PMI (August, flash): expected to rise to 51 from 50.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (August, flash): index to fall to -7 from -6.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

Friday

12.30am – Japan CPI (July): prices to rise 0.8% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

3pm – US new home sales (July): forecast to rise 6% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Company announcements

Monday 19 August

Tuesday 20 August

Wednesday 21 August

Thursday 22 August

Friday 23 August

Full-year earnings

BHP Group

Rank Group

Half/Quarterly earnings

Persimmon,
John Wood Group,
Toll Brothers,
Home Depot

Polymetal,
Barnes & Noble,
Target

Premier Oil,
OneSavings Bank,
John Laing,
Antofagasta

Computacenter,
Foot Locker

Trading update

Salesforce.com,
Gap,
HP

Dividends

Upcoming

FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, Carnival, Croda, Reckitt Benckiser, Schroders, London Stock Exchange, Prudential

FTSE 250: Stagecoach, FDM Group, Sabre Insurance, Vivo, Hikma, CLS Holdings

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

Monday 19 August Tuesday 20 August Wednesday 21 August Thursday 22 August Friday 23 August Monday 26 August
FTSE 100 5.68
Australia 200 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.6 3.8 1.6
Wall Street 6.4
US 500 0.22 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.35 0.02
Nasdaq 0.53 0.48 0.07 0.04 0.07
France 40
Netherlands 25 0.25 0.11
EU Stocks 50
China H-Shares 1.5
Singapore Blue Chip 0.15 0.23 0.04 0.04
Hong Kong HS50 1.2 7.9 1.3 13.5
South Africa 40
Italy 40
Japan 225

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