Solana capped by resistance as on-chain strength fails to lift price
Solana remains capped below $147 as technical resistance offsets strong on-chain activity, ETF interest and rising institutional involvement.
Solana capped by resistance
Over the past few weeks, Solana's native token SOL has continued to reflect the broader crypto market’s uneven dynamics, exhibiting subdued price behaviour even as key network and institutional metrics evolve.
At the end of December 2025, Solana’s price traded near $120, a level that has acted as support following earlier weakness, before rallying towards the $145 - $147 region which once again acted as resistance.
Part of the recent narrative has centred on Solana’s on-chain activity and network usage, which presents a mixed picture. A report published on December 31, 2025 highlighted that Solana-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs) processed an astonishing $1.6 trillion in trading volume in 2025, surpassing many major centralised venues and suggesting strong transactional throughput even as price stagnated.
Analysts pointed out that elevated network value to transactions (NVT) ratios - now near a seven-month high - may indicate that valuation growth is outpacing actual transaction demand, which historically can signal near-term price risk.
Despite renewed albeit modest inflows into Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after a period of extremely weak weekly collections, the outlook remained cautious, with technical patterns signalling the potential for further pressure towards lower support levels if SOL is being vehemently rejected by the $145 - $147 resistance zone.
Adding to the complexity of Solana’s recent performance are broader fundamental shifts in the blockchain’s economic profile. Reports from mid-December 2025 noted that Solana was on track to surpass Ethereum in annual revenue for the first time, driven by high-volume decentralised applications (dApps) and increased institutional demand for stablecoin settlements, particularly involving USDC integrations such as Visa's. This “regime shift” in blockchain economics suggested that Solana’s underlying usage may be strengthening even while its price lags broader crypto markets.
Institutional interest in SOL has taken another dimension with broader financial institutions moving into crypto products. On 6 January 2026, Morgan Stanley filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, including a Solana Trust, marking a milestone as the first major bank-led retail-client ETF product for SOL alongside Bitcoin. This filing reflects enduring confidence among some institutional investors in digital assets, even amid broader market volatility.
Taken together, the past few weeks illustrate Solana as a market in cautious transition. Price action has remained under pressure, with technical resistance up to $147 limiting near-term upside. Yet robust on-chain metrics, staggering DEX volume, evolving revenue dynamics relative to Ethereum and emerging institutional product filings suggest that Solana’s ecosystem retains structural relevance beyond short-term price swings.
Whether Solana will break out of its recent sideways trading range or continue to consolidate will depend on macro sentiment, liquidity conditions and how effectively the broader crypto market embraces SOL-linked products and blockchain usage.
In an environment where institutional curiosity remains alive even as traders contend with technical pressures, Solana’s trajectory into early 2026 appears defined by a delicate balance between resilience and vulnerability.
Solana bearish scenario:
SOL remains in a clearly defined bearish channel while trading below its early December peak at $146.93 on a daily chart closing basis. While this remains the case, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $131.81 may be revisited. If fallen through, the $128 region may come back to the fore.
A fall through the December low at $116.94 would probably put the psychological $100 region on the cards.
Solana bullish scenario:
A rise and daily chart close above the early December peak at $146.93 needs to be seen for a bullish bottoming pattern to be formed. Only then may the August low at $155.82 come into view.
If bettered the 200-day SMA at $172.86 would probably be back in play.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the early December $146.93 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 4 December high at $146.93.
Solana daily candlesick chart
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