UK housebuilders in focus: Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey Q4 trading updates
Persimmon reports 7 January and Taylor Wimpey on 15 January, with investors watching whether improving Q3 sales momentum has continued through year-end.
Critical updates for sector sentiment
The upcoming trading updates from Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are expected to provide a timely snapshot of market conditions and offer insight into how the United Kingdom (UK) housebuilding sector is navigating persistent macro headwinds, affordability challenges and shifts in reservation patterns.
Persimmon's fourth quarter (Q4) trading update - scheduled for Tuesday 13th of January - will be watched closely.
Taylor Wimpey's corresponding Q4 update – scheduled for Thursday 15th of January – will be similarly scrutinised.
Both are expected to illustrate improving sales rates and forward sales growth.
Persimmon’s Q3 showed encouraging momentum
Persimmon’s third quarter (Q3) fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) sales and revenue release painted a picture of steady progress as the housebuilder continued to navigate a subdued UK housing market.
In its Q3 FY26 trading update, Persimmon reported a clear improvement in sales rates, with net private sales per outlet per week rising year-on-year (YoY) and forward sales increasing materially.
The tone of the update was one of improving momentum, robust and stable average selling prices, supported by disciplined incentives and a focus on value-led products.
For the upcoming Q4 trading update investors will focus on whether Persimmon can demonstrate a sustained improvement in reservation rates and forward sales, alongside stable pricing and margins, as a test of whether affordability pressures in the UK housing market are beginning to ease.
Persimmon analyst ratings
Fundamental analysts rate Persimmon as a ‘buy’ and have a long-term mean price target at 1537.06 pence, around 11% above the current share price (as of 08/01/2026).
Persimmon LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Persimmon has a TipRanks score of ’10 Outperform’ and a ‘strong buy’ rating.
Persimmon TipRanks Smart Score chart
Technical analysis of the Persimmon share price
The Persimmon share price – up around 28% over the past year – remains within its September to January uptrend channel and is getting ever closer to its June 2025 peak at 1418p.
Persimmon weekly candlestick chart
A rise and weekly chart close above the June 1418p high would likely put the January 2023 to June 2025 peaks at 1500p - 1531p on the map.
Persimmon daily candlestick chart
Medium-term upside pressure should be maintained while the mid-December 2025 low at 1,287p underpins on a weekly chart closing basis.
Taylor Wimpey’s Q3 update looked similarly encouraging
Taylor Wimpey’s Q3 FY26 trading update echoed the theme of improving momentum, with net private sales rising to 0.76 homes per outlet per week and forward sales increasing 15% YoY, supported by robust pricing despite ongoing affordability pressures.
The UK housebuilder also reported a cancellation rate of 16 percent and reiterated the company’s guidance for completions and operating profit for the 2025 financial year. Analysts have used this as the latest meaningful trading data point ahead of subsequent updates.
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, analysts rate Taylor Wimpey as a ‘buy’ and have a long-term mean price target at 129 pence, around 20% above the current share price (as of 08/01/2026).
Taylor Wimpey LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Taylor Wimpey has a TipRanks score of ’8 Outperform’ and a ‘buy’ rating.
Taylor Wimpey TipRanks Smart Score chart
Taylor Wimpey share price technical analysis
The Taylor Wimpey share price – down approximately 3% over the past year – has seen a 45% drop from its September 2024 peak at 169.15p to its September 2025 low at 92.32p. Since then it has risen by around 16% but still needs to exceed its October 2025 high at 111.05p for a medium-term bottom to be formed.
Taylor Wimpey weekly candlestick chart
If indeed a longer-term bullish reversal were to be seen, the area between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and February to June 2025 highs at 122.27p - 125.75p may be reached.
Good support is seen in the 100p region with it acting as bullish launching pad in December 2022, June to July 2023, April, July and December 2025. Failure there may lead to the November 2025 low at 96.54p being revisited, and perhaps also the 92.32p September 2025 trough.
Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey’s Q4 outlook
Taken together, the Q4 trading messages from Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are expected to illustrate similar themes across the two large UK housebuilders: improving sales rates and forward sales growth and a strategic focus on product mix and regional diversification.
Both companies are expected to highlight the role of sales incentives and affordability-support measures, including part-exchange, in underpinning private demand amid ongoing affordability pressures, while forward sales remain a key focus, with order books improving but still below the levels seen at the peak of the previous housing cycle.
Against the prospect of one or two 25 basis point Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in 2026, Persimmon’s strong exposure to first-time buyers and affordable housing, together with Taylor Wimpey’s disciplined pricing and incentives-led approach, leaves both groups relatively well positioned to capture the more resilient pockets of demand as affordability conditions gradually improve.
The government’s approach to housing policy - including proposals to address planning delays and stimulate supply in strategic regions - remains an overarching factor for the sector’s outlook.
Measures aimed at boosting infrastructure-linked housing development and easing planning bottlenecks could, if implemented, underpin future confidence among both developers and buyers.
But in the short term, affordability constraints tied to BoE base-rate expectations and high street mortgage pricing is expected to continue to drive reservation growth.
Looking ahead, the sector’s ability to navigate ongoing affordability pressures, align build programmes with confirmed demand, and take advantage of any policy-led improvements in planning and infrastructure will be critical.
Taken together, the Q4 trading messages from Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are expected to illustrate similar themes across the two large UK housebuilders: improving sales rates and forward sales growth and a strategic focus on product mix and regional diversification.
Investment considerations
- Research market positioning and strategies.
- Consider affordability trends.
- Open an account on the IG website.
- Access housing stocks through the platform.
- Implement risk management.
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