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Week commencing 23 January

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

Service PMIs, CPI and GDP numbers dominate the economic calendar next week, but the real focus remains on US earnings season, which grinds on over the coming sessions. With US exporters coming into view, investors should watch out for commentary on how the stronger dollar is having an impact.

In the UK we have some big full-year numbers coming through, with consumer goods firm Unilever front and centre. Miners and retailers continue to issue trading updates as well, with the latter of interest after the UK’s headline retail sales figures disappointed last week.

However, the big event will be what Donald Trump does now he is in power – we can expect a swathe of executive orders from the new commander-in-chief that could upend both the US political order and the established global economic system.  

Economic reports

Week commencing 23 January

Monday

10am – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash): expected to fall to -5.8 from -5.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (January, flash): these will be closely-watched for signs of improvement. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US manufacturing PMI (January, flash): expected to fall to 54 from 54.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (December): MoM figure expected to fall by 0.5%, while the annual rate is forecast to fall to 5.56 million from 5.61 million. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan trade balance (December): previous reading saw exports fall 0.4% YoY. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Wednesday

12.30am – Australia inflation (Q4): forecast to rise to 1.5% from 1.3% YoY and 0.5% from 0.7% MoM. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9am – German IFO (January): business climate index forecast to drop to 110.5 from 111, while current conditions forecast to fall to 116.2 from 116.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 20 January): stockpiles expected to fall by 1.67 million barrels, after a 2.3 million barrel increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

7am – German consumer confidence (February): expected to rise to 10 from 9.9. Market to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK GDP (Q4, preliminary): first estimate is expected to show growth of 0.4% QoQ from 0.6% in Q3, and 2% from 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 21 January): claims expected to rise to 247K from 234K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US services PMI (January, flash): expected to see a fall to 53.5 from 53.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US new home sales (December): forecast to fall 0.3% MoM, while the annual rate falls to 590K from 592K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan CPI (December), Tokyo CPI (January): the Tokyo figure is regarded as a leading indicator and may carry more weight, with the previous figures having been 0% YoY overall and a 0.6% fall in YoY core CPI. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Friday

12.05am – UK Gfk consumer confidence (January): forecast to fall to -9 from -7. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (December), GDP growth (Q4): orders expected to rise 2.5% MoM overall, and 0.4% excluding transportation. GDP forecast to be 2.1% from 3.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – Michigan confidence index (December, final): forecast to fall to 98.1 from 98.2. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Weekly view

Monday

10am – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash): expected to fall to -5.8 from -5.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (January, flash): these will be closely-watched for signs of improvement. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US manufacturing PMI (January, flash): expected to fall to 54 from 54.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (December): MoM figure expected to fall by 0.5%, while the annual rate is forecast to fall to 5.56 million from 5.61 million. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan trade balance (December): previous reading saw exports fall 0.4% YoY. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Wednesday

12.30am – Australia inflation (Q4): forecast to rise to 1.5% from 1.3% YoY and 0.5% from 0.7% MoM. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9am – German IFO (January): business climate index forecast to drop to 110.5 from 111, while current conditions forecast to fall to 116.2 from 116.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 20 January): stockpiles expected to fall by 1.67 million barrels, after a 2.3 million barrel increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

7am – German consumer confidence (February): expected to rise to 10 from 9.9. Market to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK GDP (Q4, preliminary): first estimate is expected to show growth of 0.4% QoQ from 0.6% in Q3, and 2% from 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 21 January): claims expected to rise to 247K from 234K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US services PMI (January, flash): expected to see a fall to 53.5 from 53.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US new home sales (December): forecast to fall 0.3% MoM, while the annual rate falls to 590K from 592K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan CPI (December), Tokyo CPI (January): the Tokyo figure is regarded as a leading indicator and may carry more weight, with the previous figures having been 0% YoY overall and a 0.6% fall in YoY core CPI. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Friday

12.05am – UK Gfk consumer confidence (January): forecast to fall to -9 from -7. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (December), GDP growth (Q4): orders expected to rise 2.5% MoM overall, and 0.4% excluding transportation. GDP forecast to be 2.1% from 3.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – Michigan confidence index (December, final): forecast to fall to 98.1 from 98.2. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Company announcements

FTSE ex-dividend dates: 26 January

FTSE 250: Halfords Group

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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