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The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 10 December
Chris Beauchamp, market analyst
Key events for the week include UK gross domestic product (GDP), an European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and flash purchasing managers index's (PMIs) from the eurozone, but the main event will be the UK Parliament vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, still expected for Tuesday.
Company news is relatively light, but retailers such as Dixons Carphone and Ocado, plus housebuilder Bellway and tobacco firm British American Tobacco will be key names to watch.
Economic reports
Week commencing 10 December
Monday
9.30am – UK GDP (October): growth expected to be 0.4% for the 3-month period ending in October, from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Tuesday
Time TBC – UK House of Parliament vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement: currently this is not expected to pass the House, in which case the PM may be forced to go back to Europe for more negotiations. A failure may result in a no-confidence motion in the government. While it is widely expected that the deal will fail to get through, increased volatility is likely. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (November): index to rise to 10 from 4. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
9.30am – UK employment data: September expected to have seen employment drop by 64,000, while the claimant count rises by 7400 in November. Unemployment rate for October expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings to rise 3% for October. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW (December): economic sentiment to rise to -12 from -24. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US PPI (November): factory-gate inflation to rise 0.1% MoM, from 0.6% last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence index (December): forecast to fall to 104 from 104.3. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
Wednesday
1.30pm – US CPI (November): CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 December): stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
12.30am – RBA bulletin: the RBA will update on its view of the Australian economy. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but with increased market volatility and a continuing stand-off with the Italian government dominating the news, the press conference may provide some insight about whether the bank is still confident about moving on rates later next year. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
11.50pm – Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q4): index to rise to 22 from 19. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
12.30am – Australia employment data (November): unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1% from 5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
2am – China retail sales (November): expected to rise by 9% from 8.6% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (December, flash): German mfg PMI to rise to 52.3 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (November): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM from 0.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Weekly view
Monday
9.30am – UK GDP (October): growth expected to be 0.4% for the 3-month period ending in October, from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Tuesday
Time TBC – UK House of Parliament vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement: currently this is not expected to pass the House, in which case the PM may be forced to go back to Europe for more negotiations. A failure may result in a no-confidence motion in the government. While it is widely expected that the deal will fail to get through, increased volatility is likely. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (November): index to rise to 10 from 4. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
9.30am – UK employment data: September expected to have seen employment drop by 64,000, while the claimant count rises by 7400 in November. Unemployment rate for October expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings to rise 3% for October. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW (December): economic sentiment to rise to -12 from -24. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US PPI (November): factory-gate inflation to rise 0.1% MoM, from 0.6% last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence index (December): forecast to fall to 104 from 104.3. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
Wednesday
1.30pm – US CPI (November): CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 December): stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
12.30am – RBA bulletin: the RBA will update on its view of the Australian economy. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but with increased market volatility and a continuing stand-off with the Italian government dominating the news, the press conference may provide some insight about whether the bank is still confident about moving on rates later next year. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
11.50pm – Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q4): index to rise to 22 from 19. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
12.30am – Australia employment data (November): unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1% from 5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
2am – China retail sales (November): expected to rise by 9% from 8.6% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (December, flash): German mfg PMI to rise to 52.3 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (November): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM from 0.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Company announcements
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Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 |
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Full-year earnings |
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Half/Quarterly earnings |
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Trading update |
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Upcoming dividends (13 December)
FTSE 100: Associated British Foods, 3i
FTSE 250: Halfords, Grainger, BCA Marketplace
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index dividend adjustments
| Monday 10 December | Tuesday 11 December | Wednesday 12 December | Thursday 13 December | Friday 14 December | Monday 17 December | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 |
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1.00 |
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| Australia 200 | 0.2 |
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| Wall Street |
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3.7 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Nasdaq | 1.63 | 1.15 | ||||
| France 40 | 0.2 | 7.3 | ||||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 3.7 | |||||
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.82 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | 12.1 | |||||
| Italy 40 | 2.2 | |||||
| Japan 225 |
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