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The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 24 September
Chris Beauchamp, market analyst
September’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision is upon us and while the rate increase is all but assured, the key points for markets will be in what policymakers expect for the future (the fabled ‘dot plot’) and their assessment of the US economy. Crucially, as trade wars rumble on, the Fed may look to comment on how this is affecting the US. Also worth watching out for are the monthly durable goods orders.
Corporate news is thin on the ground as we remain in the fallow period for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic, but first-half numbers from Next and Boohoo, and an update from H&M will mean retailers are very much in focus.
Economic reports
Week commencing 24 September
Monday
9am – German IFO index (September): business climate index to rise to 104 from 103.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (August): index expected to rise to 0.2 from 0.13. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
12.50am – BoJ meeting minutes: these will reveal the discussion behind the latest decision. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
3pm – US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to 10.6 from 10.5. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone business confidence (September): forecast to drop to 1.15 from 1.22. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final reading), durable goods order (August), Personal consumption expenditure prices (Q2, final): GDP to rise 4.2% QoQ, durable goods orders to rise 1.7% from -1.7% MoM, and increase 0.5% from 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. PCE prices to rise 2.6% QoQ from 2.5%, and core PCE prices to increase by 2% from 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (August): forecast to fall 1.9% YoY from a 2.3% drop in July. Market to watch: USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan unemployment (August): jobless rate to fall to 2.4% from 2.5%. Market to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (September): forecast to hold at 50.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
8.55am – German unemployment (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK GDP (Q2, final): forecast to be 1.3% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – eurozone CPI (September): forecast to be 2.1% YoY from 2%, and core CPI to be 1.2% from 1%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US personal income & spending (August): income to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.3% and 0.4% from 0.4% for spending. Market to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): index to rise to 63.8 from 63.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (September, final): index to hold at 96.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Weekly view
Monday
9am – German IFO index (September): business climate index to rise to 104 from 103.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (August): index expected to rise to 0.2 from 0.13. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
12.50am – BoJ meeting minutes: these will reveal the discussion behind the latest decision. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
3pm – US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to 10.6 from 10.5. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone business confidence (September): forecast to drop to 1.15 from 1.22. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final reading), durable goods order (August), Personal consumption expenditure prices (Q2, final): GDP to rise 4.2% QoQ, durable goods orders to rise 1.7% from -1.7% MoM, and increase 0.5% from 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. PCE prices to rise 2.6% QoQ from 2.5%, and core PCE prices to increase by 2% from 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (August): forecast to fall 1.9% YoY from a 2.3% drop in July. Market to watch: USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan unemployment (August): jobless rate to fall to 2.4% from 2.5%. Market to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (September): forecast to hold at 50.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
8.55am – German unemployment (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK GDP (Q2, final): forecast to be 1.3% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – eurozone CPI (September): forecast to be 2.1% YoY from 2%, and core CPI to be 1.2% from 1%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US personal income & spending (August): income to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.3% and 0.4% from 0.4% for spending. Market to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): index to rise to 63.8 from 63.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (September, final): index to hold at 96.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Company announcements
Upcoming dividends (27 September)
FTSE 100: Smurfit Kappa, Hargreaves Lansdown, WM Morrison
FTSE 250: Essentra, John Laing, Bovis Homes, Games Workshop
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index dividend adjustments
| Monday 24 September | Tuesday 25 September | Wednesday 26 September | Thursday 27 September | Friday 28 September | Monday 1 October | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 |
|
|
0.80 |
|||
| Australia 200 |
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Wall Street |
|
|||||
| US 500 | 0.21 | 0.54 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.10 | |
| Nasdaq | 0.48 | 0.76 | ||||
| France 40 | 7.0 | |||||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 2.5 | |||||
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.18 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| Italy 40 | ||||||
| Japan 225 | 159.10 |
|
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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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