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All trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.

Week commencing 1 May

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

Rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and Australia’s RBA will dominate the economic calendar, while we also have US non-farm payrolls and their traditional prelude, the ADP numbers, to provide further information on the state of the US economy. UK PMIs also appear this week, along with those from the US and China.

Meanwhile earnings season grinds on, with a plethora of reports and updates from US and UK firms, across a multitude of sectors.

Economic reports

Week commencing 1 May

Monday

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): expected to fall to 56.5 from 57.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

12.50am – BoJ meeting minutes: these may provide further clues about policy direction. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (April): private sector survey expected to fall to 51 from 51.2. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be left unchanged at 1.5%. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK mfg PMI (April): activity forecast to slow to 54, from 54.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone unemployment (March): expected to fall to 9.4% from 9.5%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

Wednesday

8.55am – German unemployment (April): expected to hold at 5.8%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK construction PMI (April): forecast to fall to 52 from 52.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone GDP (Q1, flash): QoQ rate expected to be 0.5% and YoY 1.7%, from 0.4% and 1.7% respectively. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.15pm – US ADP employment report (April): forecast to drop to 190K from 263K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD Crosses

3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (April): expected to rise to 56 from 55.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 28 April): stockpiles expected to rise by 120,000 barrels, after a 3.6 million barrel fall a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – Fed meeting: no change in policy expected, with the Fed still expected to raise rates twice more this year, in June and then at some point in the final four months of the year. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Thursday

2.30am – Australia trade balance (March): surplus expected to drop to A$2.9 billion from A$3.6 billion. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK services PMI (April): expected to fall to 54.7 from 55. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

1.30pm – US trade balance (March), initial jobless claims (w/e 29 April): trade deficit forecast to widen to $44.4 billion from $43.6 billion. Jobless claims expected to fall to 251K from 257K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (April): job creation expected to rise to 180K from 98K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.6% from 4.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada employment data (April): 14K jobs forecast to have been created, while the unemployment rate remains at 6.7%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (April): forecast to drop to 56.8 from 61.1. Market to watch: CAD crosses

Weekly view

Monday

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): expected to fall to 56.5 from 57.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

12.50am – BoJ meeting minutes: these may provide further clues about policy direction. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (April): private sector survey expected to fall to 51 from 51.2. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be left unchanged at 1.5%. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK mfg PMI (April): activity forecast to slow to 54, from 54.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone unemployment (March): expected to fall to 9.4% from 9.5%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

Wednesday

8.55am – German unemployment (April): expected to hold at 5.8%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK construction PMI (April): forecast to fall to 52 from 52.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone GDP (Q1, flash): QoQ rate expected to be 0.5% and YoY 1.7%, from 0.4% and 1.7% respectively. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.15pm – US ADP employment report (April): forecast to drop to 190K from 263K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD Crosses

3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (April): expected to rise to 56 from 55.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 28 April): stockpiles expected to rise by 120,000 barrels, after a 3.6 million barrel fall a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – Fed meeting: no change in policy expected, with the Fed still expected to raise rates twice more this year, in June and then at some point in the final four months of the year. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Thursday

2.30am – Australia trade balance (March): surplus expected to drop to A$2.9 billion from A$3.6 billion. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK services PMI (April): expected to fall to 54.7 from 55. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

1.30pm – US trade balance (March), initial jobless claims (w/e 29 April): trade deficit forecast to widen to $44.4 billion from $43.6 billion. Jobless claims expected to fall to 251K from 257K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (April): job creation expected to rise to 180K from 98K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.6% from 4.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada employment data (April): 14K jobs forecast to have been created, while the unemployment rate remains at 6.7%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (April): forecast to drop to 56.8 from 61.1. Market to watch: CAD crosses

Company announcements

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