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Week commencing 21 January

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

The UK is firmly in the spotlight, as markets wait to see what the government’s way forward is from last week’s defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement. Other key data to watch will be UK employment figures, flash purchasing managers indices (PMIs) from the eurozone and the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision.

The Christmas trading statement season continues in the UK, while in the US key earnings reports include Intel, IBM and Starbucks.

Economic reports

Week commencing 21 January

Monday

Martin Luther King Day in US

UK Prime Minister Theresa May must outline new Brexit plan today

2am – China GDP (Q4): growth forecast to be 6.4% YoY and 1.5% QoQ, from 6.5% and 1.6% respectively. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (February): forecast to fall to 10.3 from 10.4. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday

9.30am – UK employment data: December claimant count to rise by 10,000, from 21,900 a month earlier, while the November unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, and average earnings for November to rise by 3% (inc bonus) from 3.3% a month earlier. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (January): economic sentiment index to fall to -21 from -17.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (December): expected to fall 0.8% MoM from a 1.9% gain in November. Market to watch: USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan trade balance (December): forecast to see the deficit narrow to Y600 billion from Y737 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses

Wednesday

3am – Bank of Japan rate decision: no change in policy expected. Market to watch: JPY crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash reading): expected to rise to -4.3 from -6.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Thursday

8.30am – German mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 51.9 from 51.5, while services to rise to 53.4 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but given the weakness in eurozone data of late, investors should watch out for the views of the bank on growth and inflation. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 53.4 from 53.8, and services to fall to 54.2 from 54.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 18 January): stockpiles rose by 7.5 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Friday

9am – German Ifo business climate index (January): expected to rise to 101.5, from 101. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Weekly view

Monday

Martin Luther King Day in US

UK Prime Minister Theresa May must outline new Brexit plan today

2am – China GDP (Q4): growth forecast to be 6.4% YoY and 1.5% QoQ, from 6.5% and 1.6% respectively. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (February): forecast to fall to 10.3 from 10.4. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday

9.30am – UK employment data: December claimant count to rise by 10,000, from 21,900 a month earlier, while the November unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, and average earnings for November to rise by 3% (inc bonus) from 3.3% a month earlier. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (January): economic sentiment index to fall to -21 from -17.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (December): expected to fall 0.8% MoM from a 1.9% gain in November. Market to watch: USD crosses

11.50pm – Japan trade balance (December): forecast to see the deficit narrow to Y600 billion from Y737 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses

Wednesday

3am – Bank of Japan rate decision: no change in policy expected. Market to watch: JPY crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash reading): expected to rise to -4.3 from -6.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Thursday

8.30am – German mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 51.9 from 51.5, while services to rise to 53.4 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but given the weakness in eurozone data of late, investors should watch out for the views of the bank on growth and inflation. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 53.4 from 53.8, and services to fall to 54.2 from 54.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 18 January): stockpiles rose by 7.5 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Friday

9am – German Ifo business climate index (January): expected to rise to 101.5, from 101. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Company announcements

Upcoming dividends (24 January)

FTSE 100: None

FTSE 250: Pennon, Stagecoach, Games Workshop

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index dividend adjustments

Monday 21 January Tuesday 22 January Wednesday 23 January Thursday 24 January Friday 25 January Monday 28 January
FTSE 100

Australia 200

Wall Street

US 500 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.04
Nasdaq
France 40
Netherlands 25
EU Stocks 50
China H-Shares
Singapore Blue Chip 0.09 0.30
Hong Kong HS50
South Africa 40 17.6
Italy 40
Japan 225

1.7

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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