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Week commencing 27 February

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

A busy week of data ahead, both economic and corporate, should make life interesting, particularly as markets enter the week on the back foot. Economic highlights include PMIs from the UK, culminating on Friday with key services figures. In addition, we have US durable goods and the ISM, non-manufacturing and manufacturing, readings. The big event, however, will be the speech by President Trump to Congress, which is a must-watch.

On the corporate front, we have full-year figures from housebuilders Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, broadcaster ITV and advertising giant WPP, among many others. US earnings season is winding down, but UK earnings will keep investors occupied. 

Economic reports

Week commencing 27 February

Monday

10am – eurozone business confidence (February): forecast to rise to 0.84 from 0.77. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (January): overall orders expected to rise 1.9% MoM from a 0.4% drop, while excluding transportation the figure is expected to be 0.5%, in line with the previous month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (January): expected to rise 0.2% YoY from 0.3% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

Time TBC – Trump speech to Congress: the new president will address both houses, with markets hoping that he will give some details of his stimulus and tax programmes. This promises to be the big event of the week. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 

1.30pm – US GDP (Q4, second estimate): growth expected to be revised up to 2.1% QoQ from previous 1.4% reading. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (February): index expected to rise to 52.3 from 50.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US Conf Board consumer confidence (February): forecast to decline to 110.9 from 111.8 Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Wednesday

12.30am – Australia GDP (Q4): growth forecast to be 0.5% QoQ and 1.5% YoY, from -0.5% and 1.8% respectively. Market to watch: AUD crosses

1.00pm – China manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs (February): manufacturing PMI forecast to fall to 51.2 from 51.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI holds at 54.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

1.45pm – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (February): private sector survey expected to rise to 52.1 from 51. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

8.55am – Germany unemployment (February): rate expected to remain at 5.9%, while the number of unemployed falls by 11,000 after a 26,000 drop last month. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (February): activity expected to weaken slightly, with the index declining to 55.6 from 55.9. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

1.00pm – German CPI (February, preliminary): expected to rise to 2.1% YoY from 1.9%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change to rates expected, from the current 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (February): activity expected to slow, with the index falling to 55.7 from 56. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 24 February): stockpiles expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels after a 564,000 barrel increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

12.30am – Australia trade balance (January): previous reading was a surplus of A$3.5 billion. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK construction PMI (February): forecast to fall to 52 from previous reading of 52.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone inflation (February), unemployment (January): inflation expected to be 2.1% YoY from 1.8%, while core inflation rises to 1% from 0.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.6%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q4): forecast to fall to 0.5% from 0.9% QoQ and to 1.7% from 3.5% YoY. Market to watch: CAD crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 25 February): expected to drop to 243K from 244K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.30pm – Japan inflation, unemployment (January): inflation expected to remain at 0.3% YoY and rise to -0.1% MoM from -0.2%. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Friday

1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (February): service activity expected to accelerate, with the index rising to 53.4 from 53.1. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

5am – Japan consumer confidence (February): index expected to fall to 43 from 43.2. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

9.30am – UK services PMI (February): the biggest of the UK PMI readings, forecast to rise to 55.1 from 54.5. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (February): expected to fall to 56.4 from 56.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Weekly view

Monday

10am – eurozone business confidence (February): forecast to rise to 0.84 from 0.77. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (January): overall orders expected to rise 1.9% MoM from a 0.4% drop, while excluding transportation the figure is expected to be 0.5%, in line with the previous month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (January): expected to rise 0.2% YoY from 0.3% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

Time TBC – Trump speech to Congress: the new president will address both houses, with markets hoping that he will give some details of his stimulus and tax programmes. This promises to be the big event of the week. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 

1.30pm – US GDP (Q4, second estimate): growth expected to be revised up to 2.1% QoQ from previous 1.4% reading. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (February): index expected to rise to 52.3 from 50.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US Conf Board consumer confidence (February): forecast to decline to 110.9 from 111.8 Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Wednesday

12.30am – Australia GDP (Q4): growth forecast to be 0.5% QoQ and 1.5% YoY, from -0.5% and 1.8% respectively. Market to watch: AUD crosses

1.00pm – China manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs (February): manufacturing PMI forecast to fall to 51.2 from 51.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI holds at 54.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

1.45pm – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (February): private sector survey expected to rise to 52.1 from 51. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

8.55am – Germany unemployment (February): rate expected to remain at 5.9%, while the number of unemployed falls by 11,000 after a 26,000 drop last month. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (February): activity expected to weaken slightly, with the index declining to 55.6 from 55.9. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

1.00pm – German CPI (February, preliminary): expected to rise to 2.1% YoY from 1.9%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change to rates expected, from the current 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (February): activity expected to slow, with the index falling to 55.7 from 56. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 24 February): stockpiles expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels after a 564,000 barrel increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

12.30am – Australia trade balance (January): previous reading was a surplus of A$3.5 billion. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK construction PMI (February): forecast to fall to 52 from previous reading of 52.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone inflation (February), unemployment (January): inflation expected to be 2.1% YoY from 1.8%, while core inflation rises to 1% from 0.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.6%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q4): forecast to fall to 0.5% from 0.9% QoQ and to 1.7% from 3.5% YoY. Market to watch: CAD crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 25 February): expected to drop to 243K from 244K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

11.30pm – Japan inflation, unemployment (January): inflation expected to remain at 0.3% YoY and rise to -0.1% MoM from -0.2%. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

Friday

1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (February): service activity expected to accelerate, with the index rising to 53.4 from 53.1. Markets to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

5am – Japan consumer confidence (February): index expected to fall to 43 from 43.2. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

9.30am – UK services PMI (February): the biggest of the UK PMI readings, forecast to rise to 55.1 from 54.5. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (February): expected to fall to 56.4 from 56.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Company announcements

FTSE ex-dividend dates (2 March):

FTSE 100: Barclays

FTSE 250: SSP Group, Centamin, Beazley, Hays, HICL Inf Company

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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