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Week commencing 21 May
Chris Beauchamp, market analyst
Purchasing managers index (PMIs) from around the globe, but especially from the eurozone and the US, dominate the week, while UK watchers get consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales data.
It is a mixed week for earnings, but big UK numbers include Marks & Spencer full-year earnings, and updates from DIY firm Kingfisher and homebuilder Bovis Homes.
Economic reports
Week commencing 21 May
Monday
12.50am – Japan trade balance (April): surplus expected to narrow to Y498 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (April): forecast to rise to 0.256 from 0.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
None
Wednesday
8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (May, flash): these flash PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors will be crucial for the euro and eurozone indices. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
9.30am – UK CPI (April): CPI to rise 2.6% YoY from 2.5% and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.3%. Market to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (May, flash): services expected to be 54.3 from 56.5, and mfg 54.8 from 54.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (May, flash): expected to fall to -1.4 from 0.4. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
3pm – US new home sales (April): previous month saw a rise of 4%. Market to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 18 May): stockpiles forecast to rise by 110,000 barrels, from a 1.4 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed minutes: these will provide insight into the FOMC’s latest thinking. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (June): expected to fall to 10.7 from 10.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (April): forecast to rise 1% MoM from a -1.2% drop, and 1.7% YoY from a 1.17% rise. Market to watch: GBP crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (April): expected to fall 1% YoY. Market to watch: USD crosses
Friday
9am – German Ifo index (May): business climate index to fall to 101.9 from 102.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK GDP (Q1, 2nd estimate): expected to be 0.1% from 0.4% QoQ, and 1.2% from 1.4% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (April): expected to rise 1.6% MoM from 2.6%, and 0.5% MoM from 0% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (May, final): expected to hold at 98.8. Market to watch: USD crosses
Weekly view
Monday
12.50am – Japan trade balance (April): surplus expected to narrow to Y498 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (April): forecast to rise to 0.256 from 0.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
None
Wednesday
8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (May, flash): these flash PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors will be crucial for the euro and eurozone indices. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
9.30am – UK CPI (April): CPI to rise 2.6% YoY from 2.5% and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.3%. Market to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (May, flash): services expected to be 54.3 from 56.5, and mfg 54.8 from 54.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (May, flash): expected to fall to -1.4 from 0.4. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
3pm – US new home sales (April): previous month saw a rise of 4%. Market to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 18 May): stockpiles forecast to rise by 110,000 barrels, from a 1.4 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed minutes: these will provide insight into the FOMC’s latest thinking. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (June): expected to fall to 10.7 from 10.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (April): forecast to rise 1% MoM from a -1.2% drop, and 1.7% YoY from a 1.17% rise. Market to watch: GBP crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (April): expected to fall 1% YoY. Market to watch: USD crosses
Friday
9am – German Ifo index (May): business climate index to fall to 101.9 from 102.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK GDP (Q1, 2nd estimate): expected to be 0.1% from 0.4% QoQ, and 1.2% from 1.4% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (April): expected to rise 1.6% MoM from 2.6%, and 0.5% MoM from 0% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (May, final): expected to hold at 98.8. Market to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
| Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | Wednesday 23 | Thursday 24 | Friday 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Full-year earnings |
|
Severn Trent, |
SSE, |
||
Half/Quarterly earnings |
|
|
|||
Trading update |
|
|
Upcoming dividends (24 May)
FTSE 100: Bunzl, WM Morrison, Carnival, Whitbread, Imperial Brands, DCC
FTSE 250: Spectris, Howden Joinery, FDM Group, Hill & Smith, Bellway, Diploma, Marston's, Brewin Dolphin, HICL Infrastructure
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index dividend adjustments
| Monday 21 May | Tuesday 22 May | Wednesday 23 May | Thursday 24 May | Friday 25 May | Monday 28 May | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 |
|
|
3.2 |
|
|
|
| Australia 200 | 0.6 |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||
| Wall Street |
|
6.2 | 7.0 | |||
| US 500 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.21 | |
| Nasdaq | 0.30 | 0.81 | ||||
| France 40 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Netherlands 25 | 0.25 | 0.55 | ||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 0.8 | ||
| China H-Shares | 4.5 | 44.2 | 12.0 | |||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.13 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 28.8 | 31.2 | 40.4 | |||
| South Africa 40 | 20 | |||||
| Italy 40 | ||||||
| Japan 225 |
|
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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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