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Week commencing 23 July

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

Earnings season steps up to full gear in the US, UK and Europe, so the focus will be on the sheer volume of numbers coming through, across all sectors and markets.

It is also a busy week for economic data, including flash purchasing manager indexes (PMIs), US gross domestic product (GDP), durable goods and a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

Economic reports

Week commencing 23 July

Monday

1.30pm – US Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (June): forecast to rise to 0.4 from -0.15. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July, flash): forecast to fall to -2.3 from -0.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (June): expected to rise 1.5% MoM from -0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

1.30am – Japan mfg PMI (July, flash): index forecast to rise to 53.1 from 53. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (July, flash): eurozone services PMI to fall to 53.7 from 55.2, and mfg PMI to rise to 55 from 54.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (July, flash): mfg expected to rise to 55.5 from 55.4, and services to fall to 56.3 from 56.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Wednesday

9am – German IFO index (July): business climate index to rise to 102.2 from 101.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (June): forecast to fall 2.8% MoM from a 6.7% rise. Market to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 20 July): stockpiles forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels, from a 5.8 million increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): expected to fall to 10.6 from 10.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses

12.45pm – ECB rate decision (press conference @ 1.30pm): no change in policy expected, but watch for comments about potential changes in the future. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): forecast to rise 2.5% MoM from -0.6%, and excluding transportation orders to rise 0.3% MoM from -0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, first reading): growth forecast to be 2.1% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence index (July, final): forecast to fall to 97.1 from 98.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Weekly view

Monday

1.30pm – US Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (June): forecast to rise to 0.4 from -0.15. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July, flash): forecast to fall to -2.3 from -0.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (June): expected to rise 1.5% MoM from -0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

1.30am – Japan mfg PMI (July, flash): index forecast to rise to 53.1 from 53. Markets to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (July, flash): eurozone services PMI to fall to 53.7 from 55.2, and mfg PMI to rise to 55 from 54.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (July, flash): mfg expected to rise to 55.5 from 55.4, and services to fall to 56.3 from 56.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Wednesday

9am – German IFO index (July): business climate index to rise to 102.2 from 101.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (June): forecast to fall 2.8% MoM from a 6.7% rise. Market to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 20 July): stockpiles forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels, from a 5.8 million increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): expected to fall to 10.6 from 10.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses

12.45pm – ECB rate decision (press conference @ 1.30pm): no change in policy expected, but watch for comments about potential changes in the future. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): forecast to rise 2.5% MoM from -0.6%, and excluding transportation orders to rise 0.3% MoM from -0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, first reading): growth forecast to be 2.1% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan confidence index (July, final): forecast to fall to 97.1 from 98.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Company announcements

Upcoming dividends (26 July)

FTSE 100: Royal Mail, SSE

FTSE 250: Investec, Halfords, GCP Infrastructure Investments

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index dividend adjustments

  Monday 23 July Tuesday 24 July Wednesday 25 July Thursday 26 July Friday 27 July Monday 30 July
FTSE 100

 

 

3.2

     
Australia 200

0.1

         
Wall Street

 

         
US 500 0.14 0.03   0.01 0.23 0.10
Nasdaq 0.10       0.54 0.25
France 40            
Netherlands 25       0.15    
EU Stocks 50         1.5  
China H-Shares 4.5          
Singapore Blue Chip   0.35 1.39   0.08 0.36
Hong Kong HS50       3.3    
South Africa 40   18        
Italy 40            
Japan 225       1.4  

 

 

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