SpaceX IPO: what the filing reveals and what retail investors should consider

The filing arrives at last – what did we learn?

​For years, SpaceX operated as a black box. Elon Musk was famously resistant to taking the company public, and without SEC filings there was no obligation to reveal how the business actually performed. The S-1 prospectus published on 20 May 2026 ended that, giving investors their first proper look at the numbers.

​Revenue came in at $18.7 billion in 2025, up 33% year-on-year. That confirmed what most observers suspected: the business is growing fast and Starlink, the satellite internet division, is generating real money. Starlink produced $4.4 billion in operating income last year. On its own, it would be a highly attractive business.

​The problem is that SpaceX is not just Starlink. The AI division, built around Musk's xAI and its Grok chatbot, spent close to $13 billion on hardware last year and produced an operating loss of $6.4 billion. That dragged the group to an overall net loss despite Starlink's contribution. The prospectus does not dress this up: "We have a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future."

​So the filing confirmed the bull case on Starlink and the bear case on AI simultaneously. Which one matters more over the next decade is the central question investors need to answer for themselves before committing capital. You can read more about upcoming IPOs and how to evaluate them on our platform.

Starlink is the business. Everything else is a bet.

​It is worth being precise about where SpaceX actually makes its money, because the prospectus bundles several very different businesses together under one valuation. Starlink is a functioning, cash-generative telecom business with millions of paying subscribers globally and a near-insurmountable lead in low-Earth orbit satellite internet.

​The launch division, which ferries roughly 80% of all mass lifted into orbit each year, is also a genuine competitive moat. No other company comes close to SpaceX's cost per kilogram to orbit, and that advantage funds everything else. These two businesses alone would justify a substantial valuation.

​Beyond them, the picture becomes more speculative. The AI division is loss-making and trails OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by most measures. Musk identifies AI as a $26.5 trillion addressable market, but SpaceX's Grok chatbot has seen limited uptake. The most significant AI revenue line in the filing is the $15 billion per year Anthropic will pay to lease capacity in SpaceX's data centres — in other words, SpaceX is currently earning more from hosting a competitor than from its own AI products.

​Plans for orbital data centres, asteroid mining, and Mars colonisation are outlined in the prospectus as future revenue opportunities. They may be genuine long-term plays, or they may be prospectus dressing. Investors buying shares at a $1.75 trillion valuation are paying for all of it upfront, including the parts that do not yet generate a penny.

The governance structure retail investors cannot afford to ignore

​This is not a standard IPO, and the voting structure is the clearest illustration of that. Musk has been granted 1.3 billion super-voting class B shares, each carrying 10 votes per share. He personally controls 93.6% of that class. He can only be removed as chief executive by a majority of class B shareholders — which, in practice, means himself.

​His 5.1 billion vested shares represent around 41% of the company. At the target $1.75 trillion valuation, that stake alone could be worth $700 billion, potentially making him the world's first trillionaire. Several large institutional investors, including pension funds, have already raised objections to this structure. They have little recourse.

​For retail investors, the implication is straightforward. Buying SpaceX shares means backing Musk's judgement over the long term with no meaningful ability to influence strategy, board composition, or capital allocation. The prospectus devotes 37 pages to risk disclosures, and Musk's unchecked control features prominently throughout.

​It also disclosed that SpaceX purchased $131 million of Cybertrucks from Tesla at retail price last year. That is the kind of related-party transaction that gives institutional investors pause, and retail investors should take note too. None of this makes the investment wrong. But understanding what an IPO actually entitles you to — and what it does not — is essential before you commit capital.

What Tesla tells us about backing Musk at IPO

​Tesla is the comparison that will come up constantly around this listing, and it is worth examining properly rather than just citing the headline returns. It is another Musk vehicle. It listed when many thought the valuation was disconnected from reality. And it has since delivered some of the most extraordinary long-term returns in stock market history.

​A £1,000 investment in Tesla at its IPO price would be worth around £1,110 after year one, £10,510 after five years, and approximately £291,000 today. That is a 29,000% return. It is a number that tends to end valuation arguments fairly quickly.

​But Tesla fell roughly 13% in the immediate aftermath of its IPO. Year one returned just 11%. The compounding that produced those long-term gains was invisible at the outset, and required investors to hold through years of volatility, near-bankruptcy scares, production crises, and constant debate about whether the business model was credible. Many who bought the hype at listing and sold during the dips ended up with far less than those numbers suggest.

​SpaceX is a fundamentally different business to Tesla, and past performance from one Musk company tells you nothing definitive about the next. What the Tesla parallel does usefully illustrate is the pattern: Musk-led companies tend to be misunderstood at listing, volatile in the early years, and potentially transformative over the long term. Whether SpaceX follows that arc, diverges from it, or disappoints entirely is something nobody can say with confidence. Investors who understand how IPOs work will know that the opening price is rarely the most important one.

​The valuation is the obvious starting point. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would list as one of the most valuable companies in the world, ahead of businesses with decades of proven profitability. That premium prices in years of future success across multiple divisions, several of which are currently loss-making. If Starlink's growth rate decelerates or the AI division continues to burn cash without producing competitive products, the gap between valuation and fundamentals becomes very difficult to bridge.

​The concentration of Musk's attention is also a legitimate concern. He simultaneously runs Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and X, and holds a prominent government advisory role in the US. The prospectus flags his potential conflicts of interest explicitly across multiple pages. History suggests Musk performs best when focused. Whether he is currently focused is a reasonable question for investors to ask.

​Operationally, the risks are substantial and genuinely unusual. The filing covers everything from launch failures and satellite debris to regulatory probes, litigation involving explicit content, and the physical hazards of deep-space operations including "radiation from solar and cosmic sources." These are not boilerplate risks — they are specific to what SpaceX actually does.

​There is also the post-IPO volatility question. High-profile listings routinely see significant price swings in the weeks following the float as institutional lock-ups, retail enthusiasm, and short sellers all interact. Investors prepared to look through short-term noise and hold for the long term are in a different position to those buying at opening and expecting immediate gains. The two approaches carry very different risk profiles.

Getting exposure before and after listing

​Pre-IPO access for most retail investors is limited. Secondary market platforms such as Forge Global and EquityZen offer some access to private shares, but typically require high minimum investments and involve liquidity constraints that make them impractical for the majority of retail investors.

​A handful of ETFs already hold SpaceX as a pre-IPO private market position. These include the ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR), Baron First Principles ETF (RONB), and Roundhill Space and Technology ETF (NASA). Holdings in these funds can change, so current allocations are worth checking before committing. Space sector funds such as Procure Space ETF (UFO) and ARK Space and Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) offer broader exposure to companies likely to benefit from the renewed investor interest a SpaceX listing generates.

​Once SpaceX lists on a major US exchange under the ticker SPCX, shares will be available through standard brokerage accounts. Retail investors in the US will be allocated shares at IPO via Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Robinhood, among others. UK investors can access US-listed shares through IG's share dealing platform.

​Given the expected volatility around the listing, some investors may prefer to wait for the initial noise to settle before establishing a position. That approach sacrifices any opening day gains but avoids the risk of buying into peak enthusiasm at an already-elevated price. Neither approach is obviously correct — it depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.

How to invest in SpaceX shares

​Once SpaceX lists, here are the steps to take a position through IG.

1. ​Do your research. The S-1 prospectus is publicly available. The risk factors section in particular is worth reading carefully.
2. ​Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account if you do not already have one.
3. ​Search for SpaceX using the ticker SPCX once the shares begin trading.
4. ​Choose the number of shares or the amount you want to invest.
5. ​Place your trade.