Nasdaq 100 surges as USD/JPY, Brent crude drop amid US/Iran ceasefire deal
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it rallies strongly while USD/JPY, Brent crude prices fall significantly amid two-week US/Iran ceasefire deal.
Macro update
Oil drops sharply on ceasefire news: Brent fell below $100 to around $91, while WTI slipped to the mid-$90s after Trump agreed a two-week ceasefire with Iran linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait reopening eases supply fears: Iran indicated it would permit limited, safe transit through Hormuz - responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows - conditional on a pause in attacks.
Risk assets rally on relief: Equities surged globally, with S&P 500 futures up around 2.5%, European futures jumping more than 5%, and Asian markets gaining between 4% and 6%.
Safe havens unwind but gold rises: The dollar weakened and bond yields declined as risk sentiment improved, though gold still advanced towards a three-week high near $4,800 amid ongoing uncertainty.
Geopolitical premium remains embedded: Analysts cautioned that oil markets may continue to reflect elevated risk given the fragile nature of the ceasefire and potential for renewed disruption.
Focus shifts to durability of peace: Investors remain cautious over whether the two-week pause and Iran’s framework can lead to a lasting agreement, with central banks still watching inflation risks from recent energy shocks.
Nasdaq 100 rallies 3.3%
The Nasdaq 100 is in the process of seeing one of its strongest daily rallies since May 2025 and is expected to trade in one-month highs when it opens in the US.
In the short-term the early March highs at 25,152-to-25,189 are likely to cap the advance on Wednesday, though. If not, the 25 February high at 25,344 would be next in line.
The breached January-to-April downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,494-to-24,473 would be expected to act as support if a retracement were to be seen this week.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting the early March highs at 25,152-to-25,189 while above the 200-day SMA at 24,473
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 23,780
NASDAQ 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY slips through uptrend line
USD/JPY is seen coming off its ¥160.46 March peak - a level last traded in July 2024 - and in doing so slid through the February-to-April uptrend line at ¥159.18, so far to ¥158.05.
A slip through ¥158.05 would probably push the ¥157.97-to-¥157.72 area to the fore. While the next lower ¥157.51 mid-March low holds, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to stay intact, though.
Minor resistance above the ¥158.28 early April low may be spotted in the ¥159.00 region.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 7 April ¥160.03 high
Medium-term outlook: bullish (with a short-term bearish bias) while above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude drops 9%
The price of Brent crude oil dipped to a near one-month low, so far to $90.61 per barrel, leaving a huge gap with Tuesday's $101.93 low, part of which may be closed in the coming days. Resistance above the 25 March low at $93.57 may be found around the 1 April $97.08 low.
A fall through Wednesday's $90.61 low may lead to the $85-to-$84 region being revisited.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 16 March $103.14 high
Medium-term outlook: toppish while below the 31 March $108.88 high
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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