Coinbase Q1 2025 earnings preview: what to expect from the crypto exchange's results​

Coinbase Q1 2025 earnings expectations

Coinbase Global is scheduled to report its first-quarter (Q1) 2025 earnings on Thursday, 8 May 2025, before the market opens.

Analysts anticipate earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12 for the quarter, reflecting a small year-over-year (YoY) decrease from $2.15 in Q1 2024, suggesting slowing momentum for the leading cryptocurrency exchange.

The company's performance remains closely linked to the broader cryptocurrency market, which has experienced notable volatility in recent months. Bitcoin's price fluctuations and overall trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies will have directly influenced Coinbase's transaction revenue, traditionally its primary income source.

Market participants will be particularly interested in management's commentary on customer acquisition trends and user engagement metrics. These indicators provide insight into whether the recent crypto market expansion is translating into sustainable growth for Coinbase's platform.

For investors monitoring the crypto space, Coinbase's results often serve as a barometer for the sector's health. Those using trading platforms to access crypto-related assets will be watching these earnings closely for signals about the market's direction.

Key revenue metrics to watch

In Q1 2024, Coinbase reported revenue of $1.64 billion. For Q1 2025, analysts expect 30% revenue growth to $2.14 billion, driven by increased trading volumes and higher cryptocurrency prices. The company's ability to capitalise on market activity while diversifying its revenue streams will be a key focus.

Transaction revenue remains a significant component of Coinbase's income. In Q4 2024, transaction revenue was $1.077 billion, the same as in Q1 2024. Analysts expect it to rise to $1.357 billion in Q1 2025, up 26% from the previous quarter. Monitoring any rebound in this segment will be crucial for assessing the company's core business performance. This revenue line is particularly sensitive to both cryptocurrency price movements and volatility.

Subscription and services revenue, which includes staking and custodial fees, contributed roughly $511 million in Q4 2024, just as in Q1 2024. Analysts look for 37% growth in this area to $704 million in Q1 2025 as Coinbase continues to diversify its revenue streams. This segment has become increasingly important as the company seeks to reduce its dependence on transaction fees.

For traders considering positions in Coinbase or related assets, understanding these revenue dynamics is essential. Spread betting offers a way to speculate on Coinbase's share price movements around earnings without owning the underlying stock.

Operating metrics and efficiency

Beyond headline revenue figures, Coinbase's operating efficiency will be closely scrutinised. The company has implemented cost-cutting measures over the past few years, including significant workforce reductions, aimed at improving profitability in what remains a cyclical business.

Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue provide insight into the company's ability to scale efficiently. In previous quarters, Coinbase has demonstrated improved operating leverage during periods of higher trading activity, but maintaining discipline during market downturns has been challenging.

Monthly transacting users (MTUs) represent another vital metric for evaluating Coinbase's market position. This figure not only reflects current activity but serves as a leading indicator for future revenue potential. Any significant change in MTU trends could signal shifting market dynamics.

For investors using contract for difference (CFD) trading to take positions on Coinbase, these operational metrics can provide valuable context for evaluating the company's underlying business strength beyond quarterly financial results.

Market environment and competitive landscape

Coinbase's performance is closely tied to the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's price stability and trading volumes will influence transaction revenues. Additionally, regulatory developments in the United States (US) and abroad could impact Coinbase's operations and investor sentiment.

Competition in the cryptocurrency exchange space continues to intensify, with established financial institutions increasingly entering the market alongside crypto-native platforms. Coinbase's ability to maintain or grow its market share amid this competition will be closely watched.

The company's international expansion efforts represent a potential growth vector that may offset challenges in its home market. Any updates on progress in key regions like Europe and Asia will be significant for evaluating Coinbase's long-term growth prospects.

For those interested in the broader crypto ecosystem, foreign exchange (forex) trading platforms often include cryptocurrency pairs, allowing traders to gain exposure to this market without directly using crypto exchanges like Coinbase.

Regulatory developments and challenges

The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is looking more favourable, with potential implications for Coinbase's business model.

The Trump administration dismantling several regulatory barriers that previously constrained cryptocurrency operations, such as the disbandment of the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and the withdrawal of guidance that required banks to seek approval before engaging in crypto-related activities, have fostered a more accommodating environment for crypto firms, potentially benefiting Coinbase's business operations.

Furthermore, the administration has reclassified certain digital assets, such as meme coins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), as 'collectibles' rather than securities. This shift reduces the regulatory burden on these assets, potentially expanding Coinbase's offerings and attracting a broader user base.

Coinbase has responded to the favourable regulatory climate by expanding its operations, including hiring over 130 employees in Charlotte to tap into the city's fintech talent pool. Such strategic moves position the company to capitalise on the growing acceptance and integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.

International regulatory divergence adds another layer of complexity, however, with some jurisdictions adopting more supportive approaches while others implement stricter controls. This patchwork environment creates both challenges and opportunities for Coinbase's global strategy.

These regulatory considerations add an important dimension to the risk assessment for Coinbase as an investment. Those using share dealing services to build positions in the company should factor these uncertainties into their decision-making process.

Analyst sentiment and price targets

Analysts as a whole maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on Coinbase but have divergent views on the company's prospects and the inherent volatility in the company’s business model.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Data & Analytics, 6 analysts have a ‘strong buy’ recommendation, 9 a ‘buy’ and 15 a ‘hold’ recommendation (as of 28 April 2025).

LSEG Data & analytics chart

Coinbase has a TipRanks Smart Score of ’8 Outperform’ and is rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts with 13 ’buy’ and 9 ‘hold’ recommendations (as of 28 April 2025).

Coinbase TipRanks chart

The bull case for Coinbase centres on its established market position, brand recognition, and potential for revenue diversification beyond trading fees. Bulls also point to the company's strong balance sheet and its position as a regulated player in a space where regulatory compliance is increasingly important.

Bears, meanwhile, highlight the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency markets, intense competition from both traditional financial institutions and crypto-native platforms, and ongoing international regulatory uncertainties. They question whether Coinbase can maintain its premium pricing in an increasingly commoditised market.

Investors will be watching the Q1 results closely to assess whether Coinbase can meet or exceed expectations amid a dynamic crypto landscape.

Technical analysis and share price performance

Coinbase shares have demonstrated significant volatility since the company's direct listing in April 2021, reflecting both the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency markets and changing investor sentiment toward growth stocks. The stock's technical picture heading into earnings provides additional context for short-term traders.

The Coinbase share price dropped by up to 56% from its $349.75 December 2024 three-year high to its $142.58 over one-year 7 April low before recovering. It nonetheless trades 15% down year-to-date and remains in a medium-term downtrend.

Coinbase daily candlestick chart

The early March high, 200-day simple moving average (SMA), December and January lows at $233.40-to-$246.37 would need to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis for any medium-term bullish reversal to gain traction.

A still possible fall through Coinbase’s April $142.58 low would likely engage the February low at $114.51.

Option-implied volatility suggests the market is pricing in a substantial move following the earnings announcement, consistent with Coinbase's history of significant post-earnings price swings. This elevated volatility creates both risks and opportunities for traders with different time horizons.

For technical traders looking to position ahead of earnings, online trading platforms offer tools to analyse historical price patterns and volatility around previous earnings announcements, potentially informing more effective trading strategies.

​How to trade Coinbase earnings 

1. ​Do your research on Coinbase's business model, recent performance, and the broader cryptocurrency market before making any trading decisions.
2. ​Choose whether you want to trade or invest based on your timeframe and risk tolerance. Remember that crypto-related stocks often display heightened volatility.
3. ​Open an account with us if you haven't already done so.
4. ​Search for Coinbase (ticker: COIN) in our platform or app..
5. Place your trade, ensuring you have appropriate risk management strategies in place, such as stop losses, to protect against unexpected market movements. 

Earnings announcements typically create heightened volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks. Using a demo account to practice your strategy before committing real capital can be a prudent approach, especially for volatile stocks like Coinbase.

For those interested in longer-term exposure, our share dealing services provide a way to build positions as part of a diversified portfolio. Remember that while cryptocurrency-related stocks offer significant growth potential, they also come with elevated volatility and regulatory risks.

Coinbase's Q1 2025 earnings will provide valuable insights not only into the company's performance but also into broader trends in the cryptocurrency market. Whether you're a dedicated crypto enthusiast or simply interested in high-growth technology stocks, these results merit close attention in what continues to be a dynamic and evolving sector.