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Week commencing 18 June

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst

Key economic events this week include the European Central Bank (ECB) forum in Portugal, with speeches from several of the premier league of central bankers, as well as a Bank of England (BoE) meeting, and then an Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting on Friday, at which output levels will be discussed.

Corporate events of note are relatively few, but full-year numbers from Ashtead, Berkeley Group and Dixons Carphone dominate in the UK, while Oracle and FedEx post fourth quarter (Q4) numbers on Tuesday.

Economic reports

Week commencing 18 June

Monday

12.50am – Japan trade balance (May): surplus forecast to narrow to ¥406 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses

Tuesday

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (May): starts forecast to rise 1.8% from a -3.7% fall, and permits to fall 0.6% from -0.9%. Market to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

12.50am – BoJ minutes: these will shed more light on current thinking on monetary policy. Market to watch: JPY crosses

2.30pm – ECB Central Bank Forum, Portugal: the ECB will host central bankers from around the globe, with speeches from RBA governor Lowe, ECB president Draghi, BoJ governor Kuroda and Fed chair Powell. Markets to watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, US Dollar Index

3pm – US existing home sales (May): forecast to rise 1.5% MoM from a 2.5% drop. Market to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 June): expected to rise by 690,000 barrels from a 4.14 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

2.30am – RBA bulletin: an update on the economic and financial health of Australia. Market to watch: AUD crosses

12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change in rates expected, but watch for any changes in the voting pattern from the last vote which was 7/9 in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US Philadelphia Index (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 16 June): Philly Fed index expected to fall to 28 from 34.4, initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

9.30pm – Fed publishes bank stress test results: the US central bank will issue the results of these tests, so bank and other financial stocks will be in focus. Market to watch: US bank stocks

Friday

All day – OPEC meetings: the oil cartel will discuss production levels at its regular meeting. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

12.30am – Japan CPI (May): expected to rise 0.8% from 0.6% YoY, and 0.2% from -0.4% MoM. Market to watch: JPY crosses

1.30am – Japan mfg PMI (June, flash): forecast to fall to 52.4 from 52.8. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses

8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Weekly view

Monday

12.50am – Japan trade balance (May): surplus forecast to narrow to ¥406 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses

Tuesday

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (May): starts forecast to rise 1.8% from a -3.7% fall, and permits to fall 0.6% from -0.9%. Market to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

12.50am – BoJ minutes: these will shed more light on current thinking on monetary policy. Market to watch: JPY crosses

2.30pm – ECB Central Bank Forum, Portugal: the ECB will host central bankers from around the globe, with speeches from RBA governor Lowe, ECB president Draghi, BoJ governor Kuroda and Fed chair Powell. Markets to watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, US Dollar Index

3pm – US existing home sales (May): forecast to rise 1.5% MoM from a 2.5% drop. Market to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 June): expected to rise by 690,000 barrels from a 4.14 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

2.30am – RBA bulletin: an update on the economic and financial health of Australia. Market to watch: AUD crosses

12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change in rates expected, but watch for any changes in the voting pattern from the last vote which was 7/9 in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US Philadelphia Index (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 16 June): Philly Fed index expected to fall to 28 from 34.4, initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

9.30pm – Fed publishes bank stress test results: the US central bank will issue the results of these tests, so bank and other financial stocks will be in focus. Market to watch: US bank stocks

Friday

All day – OPEC meetings: the oil cartel will discuss production levels at its regular meeting. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

12.30am – Japan CPI (May): expected to rise 0.8% from 0.6% YoY, and 0.2% from -0.4% MoM. Market to watch: JPY crosses

1.30am – Japan mfg PMI (June, flash): forecast to fall to 52.4 from 52.8. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses

8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Company announcements

  Monday 18 Tuesday 19 Wednesday 20 Thursday 21 Friday 22

Full-year earnings

 

Ashtead,
Telecom Plus,

Flybe

Severfield,

Berkeley

Dixons Carphone

 

Half/Quarterly earnings

 

Oracle,

FedEx

Micron Technology

Carnival

Blackberry

Trading update

 

 

 

Saga

 

Upcoming dividends (21 June)

FTSE 100: Compass, Land Securities, Experian, United Utilities

FTSE 250: Big Yellow, Tate & Lyle, Games Workshop

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index dividend adjustments

  Monday 18 June Tuesday 19 June Wednesday 20 June Thursday 21 June Friday 22 June Monday 25 June
FTSE 100

 

 

2.7

     
Australia 200

 

  0.1      
Wall Street

 

         
US 500 0.12 0.00 0.27 0.08   0.01
Nasdaq 0.79          
France 40     4.0      
Netherlands 25            
EU Stocks 50            
China H-Shares   8.5   0.4 2.1 2.7
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50   8.7        
South Africa 40   38        
Italy 40            
Japan 225          

 

 

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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