The Week Ahead
Week commencing 16 February
Chris Beauchamp's insight
The week starts quietly with a United States (US) market holiday, but there is plenty of data across the other four days. It is a week of United Kingdom (UK) data, with the usual trio of employment data, inflation and retail sales, and the week culminates in US gross domestic product (GDP) for the final quarter of 2025. US earnings season is beginning to wind down, but in the UK mining stocks like Rio Tinto report, plus defence group BAE Systems.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
Presidents’ Day – US markets closed
None
7am – UK employment data (December): unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.1%, average earnings forecast to rise by 4.4%, down from 4.7%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (February): index expected to fall to 57 from 59.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (February): index expected to fall to 3 from 7.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada inflation (January): previous reading 2.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
7am – UK inflation (January): prices expected to rise 3% year-on-year (YoY), down from 3.4%, core consumer price index (CPI) to rise 3%, down from 3.2%. Headline inflation to drop by 0.1% month-on-month (MoM). Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (December): orders rose 5.3% last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
7pm – Fed minutes. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 February). Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (February, flash): index expected to fall to -12.8 from -12.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (January): sales fell 9.3% MoM in December. Markets to watch: USD crosses
5pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 13 February). Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
11.30pm – Japan inflation (January): headline CPI expected to slow to 1.9% from 2.1%, and core to weaken to 2.3% from 2.4%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
12.30am – Japan purchasing managers index (PMI) (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 52 from 51.5, and services to fall to 53.3 from 53.7. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (January): sales expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) from 0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – Germany PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49.8 from 49.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9am – UK PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 50.9 from 51.8, services to fall to 51.6 from 54. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q4, flash), personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (December): GDP growth expected to slow to 3% from 4.4%. PCE price index was 0.2% MoM in November. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US new home sales (November & December): Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
Presidents’ Day – US markets closed
None
Tuesday
7am – UK employment data (December): unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.1%, average earnings forecast to rise by 4.4%, down from 4.7%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (February): index expected to fall to 57 from 59.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (February): index expected to fall to 3 from 7.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada inflation (January): previous reading 2.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation (January): prices expected to rise 3% YoY, down from 3.4%, core CPI to rise 3%, down from 3.2%. Headline inflation to drop by 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (December): orders rose 5.3% last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
7pm – Fed minutes. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Thursday
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 February). Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (February, flash): index expected to fall to -12.8 from -12.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (January): sales fell 9.3% MoM in December. Markets to watch: USD crosses
5pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 13 February). Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
11.30pm – Japan inflation (January): headline CPI expected to slow to 1.9% from 2.1%, and core to weaken to 2.3% from 2.4%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 52 from 51.5, and services to fall to 53.3 from 53.7. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (January): sales expected to rise by 0.3% MoM from 0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – Germany PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49.8 from 49.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9am – UK PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 50.9 from 51.8, services to fall to 51.6 from 54. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q4, flash), PCE price index (December): GDP growth expected to slow to 3% from 4.4%. PCE price index was 0.2% MoM in November. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US new home sales (November & December): Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
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Full-year earnings |
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| Half/ Quarterly earnings |
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| Trading update |
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Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (19th February 2026):
FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, easyJet, Games Workshop, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Shell, BP, Barclays, AstraZeneca
FTSE 250: Moonpig, Plus500, BioPharma Credit
Index adjustments
|
Monday 16 February |
Tuesday 17 February |
Wednesday 18 February |
Thursday 19 February |
Friday 20 February |
Monday 23 February |
| FTSE 100 | 28.27 | 0.3 | ||||
| Australia 200 | 1.9 | 13.1 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | |
| Wall Street | 5.6 | 8.0 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.43 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.21 | 3.79 | 0.13 | 0.90 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | 1.44 | |||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.02 | |
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 | 0.6 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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