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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The Week Ahead

Week commencing 15 September

Chris Beauchamp insight

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate decision on Wednesday looms over everything else this week. A 25 basis point cut is all but a certainty, but the key will be how the committee sees the outlook for the rest of the year. UK data also predominates, with the usual mix of inflation, employment and retail sales figures. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meet too, but no changes are expected. 

Meanwhile, some stirrings of corporate reporting are expected after the summer lull, with UK retail giant Next posting interims, and in the US FedEx reports figures.

Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

3am – China retail sales, industrial production (August): retail sales expected to rise 5%, from 3.7%. Industrial production to rise 5.1% from 5.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 

1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (September): forecast to fall to 10 from 11.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses

7am – UK employment data: July unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.7%, average hourly earnings (inc bonus) to rise 4.5%, a slowdown from 4.6% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (September): economic sentiment index expected to drop sharply to 22 from 34.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (August): forecast to rise 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) from 0.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada consumer price index (CPI) (August): prices forecast to rise 1.8% year-on-year (YoY) from 1.7%, and fall 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

7am – UK inflation (August): prices expected to rise 3.8% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1%. Core CPI forecast to be 3.7% YoY from 3.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 September): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – Fed rate decision: the US central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 4%-4.25% (from the current 4.25%-4.5%). This was essentially announced back at Jackson Hole in August, but the real interest will come in the ‘dot plot’ expectations of where rates might go, and any hints that more cuts are coming later in the year. Markets to watch: global indices, major FX crosses, gold, oil

12pm – Bank of England (BoE) rate decision: having cut rates in August by 25bps, a hold at 4% is expected this time. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 September): XXX Markets to watch: USD crosses

12.30am – Japan inflation (August): prices forecast to rise 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, and core CPI to be 3% from 3.1% last month. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

4am – Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision: no change in rates from 0.5% expected, but the accompanying statement may influence markets. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (August): forecast to rise 1.5% YoY from 1.1% last month, and 0.5% MoM from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

Monday

3am – China retail sales, industrial production (August): retail sales expected to rise 5%, from 3.7%. Industrial production to rise 5.1% from 5.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 

1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (September): forecast to fall to 10 from 11.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Tuesday

7am – UK employment data: July unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.7%, average hourly earnings (inc bonus) to rise 4.5%, a slowdown from 4.6% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (September): economic sentiment index expected to drop sharply to 22 from 34.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (August): forecast to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (August): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY from 1.7%, and fall 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

 

Wednesday

7am – UK inflation (August): prices expected to rise 3.8% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1%. Core CPI forecast to be 3.7% YoY from 3.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 September): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – Fed rate decision: the US central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 4%-4.25% (from the current 4.25%-4.5%). This was essentially announced back at Jackson Hole in August, but the real interest will come in the ‘dot plot’ expectations of where rates might go, and any hints that more cuts are coming later in the year. Markets to watch: global indices, major FX crosses, gold, oil

 

Thursday

12pm – Bank of England rate decision: having cut rates in August by 25bps, a hold at 4% is expected this time. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 September): XXX Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Friday

12.30am – Japan inflation (August): prices forecast to rise 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, and core CPI to be 3% from 3.1% last month. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: no change in rates from 0.5% expected, but the accompanying statement may influence markets. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (August): forecast to rise 1.5% YoY from 1.1% last month, and 0.5% MoM from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

Company announcements

 

 

Monday
15 September

Tuesday
16 September

Wednesday
17 September

Thursday
18 September

Friday
19 September

Full-year earnings

  Kier

Barratt Redrow,

Galliford Try

 

 

Half/ Quarterly earnings

 

Mitie,

Trustpilot

 

Next,

FedEx 

 
Trading update AO World

 

Moonpig

 

 

 

Dividends

FTSE ex-dividend dates (18 September):

FTSE 100: CentricaUnite

FTSE 250: Crest NicholsonForesightBridgepointRankInternational Workforce GroupPPHE HotelsGamma CommunicationsEnergean

Index adjustments

 

Monday
15 September
Tuesday
16 September
Wednesday
17 September
Thursday
18 September
Friday
19 September
Monday
22 September
FTSE 100     1.02      
Australia 200 0.9 0.4 1.4 0.1 0.7  
Wall Street   2.6        
US 500 0.37 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.44  
Nasdaq 100 0.61 0.34     2.46  
Netherlands 25            
US Russell 2000 0.16 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.06
China H-Shares 0.8       1.1  
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50 1.5       2.4  
South Africa 40   74.0       95
France 40         0.2  
Stoxx 600         0.8  

* Please note these can change without notice

1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day

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