The Week Ahead
Week commencing 15 September
Chris Beauchamp insight
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate decision on Wednesday looms over everything else this week. A 25 basis point cut is all but a certainty, but the key will be how the committee sees the outlook for the rest of the year. UK data also predominates, with the usual mix of inflation, employment and retail sales figures. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meet too, but no changes are expected.
Meanwhile, some stirrings of corporate reporting are expected after the summer lull, with UK retail giant Next posting interims, and in the US FedEx reports figures.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
3am – China retail sales, industrial production (August): retail sales expected to rise 5%, from 3.7%. Industrial production to rise 5.1% from 5.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (September): forecast to fall to 10 from 11.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
7am – UK employment data: July unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.7%, average hourly earnings (inc bonus) to rise 4.5%, a slowdown from 4.6% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (September): economic sentiment index expected to drop sharply to 22 from 34.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (August): forecast to rise 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) from 0.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada consumer price index (CPI) (August): prices forecast to rise 1.8% year-on-year (YoY) from 1.7%, and fall 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
7am – UK inflation (August): prices expected to rise 3.8% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1%. Core CPI forecast to be 3.7% YoY from 3.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 September): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed rate decision: the US central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 4%-4.25% (from the current 4.25%-4.5%). This was essentially announced back at Jackson Hole in August, but the real interest will come in the ‘dot plot’ expectations of where rates might go, and any hints that more cuts are coming later in the year. Markets to watch: global indices, major FX crosses, gold, oil
12pm – Bank of England (BoE) rate decision: having cut rates in August by 25bps, a hold at 4% is expected this time. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 September): XXX Markets to watch: USD crosses
12.30am – Japan inflation (August): prices forecast to rise 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, and core CPI to be 3% from 3.1% last month. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
4am – Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision: no change in rates from 0.5% expected, but the accompanying statement may influence markets. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (August): forecast to rise 1.5% YoY from 1.1% last month, and 0.5% MoM from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Monday
3am – China retail sales, industrial production (August): retail sales expected to rise 5%, from 3.7%. Industrial production to rise 5.1% from 5.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (September): forecast to fall to 10 from 11.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
7am – UK employment data: July unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.7%, average hourly earnings (inc bonus) to rise 4.5%, a slowdown from 4.6% last month. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (September): economic sentiment index expected to drop sharply to 22 from 34.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (August): forecast to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada CPI (August): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY from 1.7%, and fall 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation (August): prices expected to rise 3.8% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1%. Core CPI forecast to be 3.7% YoY from 3.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 September): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed rate decision: the US central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 4%-4.25% (from the current 4.25%-4.5%). This was essentially announced back at Jackson Hole in August, but the real interest will come in the ‘dot plot’ expectations of where rates might go, and any hints that more cuts are coming later in the year. Markets to watch: global indices, major FX crosses, gold, oil
Thursday
12pm – Bank of England rate decision: having cut rates in August by 25bps, a hold at 4% is expected this time. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 September): XXX Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan inflation (August): prices forecast to rise 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, and core CPI to be 3% from 3.1% last month. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: no change in rates from 0.5% expected, but the accompanying statement may influence markets. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (August): forecast to rise 1.5% YoY from 1.1% last month, and 0.5% MoM from 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (18 September):
FTSE 250: Crest Nicholson, Foresight, Bridgepoint, Rank, International Workforce Group, PPHE Hotels, Gamma Communications, Energean
Index adjustments
|
Monday 15 September |
Tuesday 16 September |
Wednesday 17 September |
Thursday 18 September |
Friday 19 September |
Monday 22 September |
| FTSE 100 | 1.02 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | |
| Wall Street | 2.6 | |||||
| US 500 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.44 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.61 | 0.34 | 2.46 | |||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| China H-Shares | 0.8 | 1.1 | ||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 1.5 | 2.4 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | 74.0 | 95 | ||||
| France 40 | 0.2 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 0.8 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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