The Week Ahead
Week commencing 18 August
Axel Rudolph insight
A week of mostly second-tier data, which includes a plethora of manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI), European and UK consumer price index (CPI), retail sales and consumer confidence. The week culminates in the Jackson Hole Symposium at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be expected to guide investors on the central bank’s policy path. UK earnings season will wind down with Aegon, BHP and Hays reporting.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
None
9.30pm – US API crude oilstocks change (w/e 15 August): previous reading at 1.5M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7am – UK inflation rate (July): CPI expected to rise to 4% from 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) and to slow to 0.2% versus 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) in June. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am – German producer price index (PPI) inflation rate (July): PPI forecast to slide by -1.4% from -1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 15 August): stockpiles rose by 3.037 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1am – Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
8.30am – German HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 49.8 versus previous 49.1 and services to slide to 50.3 versus previous 50.6. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9am – Euro Area HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing forecast to rise to 50 versus 49.8 previously and services to rise to 51.5 versus July’s 51. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9.30am – UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.6 versus previous 48 and services to slide to 51.7 versus July’s 51.8. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 16 August): claims rose by 224K in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to slow to 49.7 versus previous 49.8 and services to slide to 53 versus July’s 55.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (July): forecast to fall to 3.9m from 3.93m, to fall by 0.2% versus previous -2.7% MoM drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – Euro Area consumer confidence (August, Preliminary): forecast to improve to -14.4 versus -14.7 previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.01am – UK GfK consumer confidence (August): forecast to remain unchanged at -19. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am – UK retail sales (July): expected to rise by 0.3% versus 0.9% MoM and by 1.8% versus 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Monday
None
Tuesday
9.30pm – US API crude oil stocks change (w/e 15 August): previous reading at 1.5M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation rate (July): CPI expected to rise to 4% from 3.6% YoY and to slow to 0.2% versus 0.3% MoM in June. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am – German PPI inflation rate (July): PPI forecast to slide by -1.4% from -1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 15 August): stockpiles rose by 3.037 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC Minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
1am – Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
8.30am – German HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 49.8 versus previous 49.1 and services to slide to 50.3 versus previous 50.6. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9am – Euro Area HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing forecast to rise to 50 versus 49.8 previously and services to rise to 51.5 versus July’s 51. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9.30am – UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.6 versus previous 48 and services to slide to 51.7 versus July’s 51.8. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 16 August): claims rose by 224K in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to slow to 49.7 versus previous 49.8 and services to slide to 53 versus July’s 55.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (July): forecast to fall to 3.9m from 3.93m, to fall by 0.2% versus previous -2.7% MoM drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – Euro Area consumer confidence (August, Preliminary): forecast to improve to -14.4 versus -14.7 previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Friday
12.01am – UK GfK consumer confidence (August): forecast to remain unchanged at -19. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am – UK retail sales (July): expected to rise by 0.3% versus 0.9% MoM and by 1.8% versus 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (14 August):
FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, Babcock International, Convatec, Schroders, Mondi, Anglo American, Legal & General, InterContinental Hotels, Entain
FTSE 250: XPS Pensions, Shaftesbury Capital, Ibstock, Plus500
Index adjustments
|
Monday 18 August |
Tuesday 19 August |
Wednesday 20 August |
Thursday 21 August |
Friday 22 August |
Monday 25 August |
| FTSE 100 | 4.61 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 2.4 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Wall Street | 10.5 | 5.1 | 14.6 | 4.5 | 8.0 | |
| US 500 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 0.82 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.35 | 4.04 | 2.02 | 0.11 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | 0.21 | |||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.08 | 0.06 | ||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 2.4 | 1.7 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | 94.2 | |||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 | 0.3 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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