The Week Ahead
Week commencing 15 June
Chris Beauchamp's insight
Central bank decisions dominate the week, as the Fed, BoJ, RBA and BoE meet. Only the BoJ is expected to raise rates, but Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting will be interesting even without any change in US rates. UK data is also plentiful, including inflation and employment data. Earnings are mostly absent, but UK supermarket titan Tesco releases a trading statement, along with Premier Inn owner Whitbread.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (June): forecast to fall to 9 from 19.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3am – China industrial production (May): forecast to rise to 4.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses4
4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates expected to rise by 25bps to 1%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
5.30am – Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
10am – German ZEW index (June): forecast to fall to -16 from -10.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30pm – US API crude oil inventories (w/e 12 June): stockpiles fell by 9.1 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7am – UK inflation (May): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY, from 2.8% in April, and 0.5% MoM from 0.7%. Core CPI expected to be 2.6% YoY from 2.5%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (May): expected to rise 0.6% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 June): stockpiles fell by 7.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – US Federal Reserve rate decision: rates to be held at 3.75%. Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman is bound to be interesting, as his push to cut rates meets with concerns about rising inflation. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
7am – UK employment data: April unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1%, while average earnings (including bonus) rise by 3.6%, down from 4.1%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12pm – BoE rate decision: rates expected to be held at 3.75%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 June): expected to fall to 226K from 229K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
12.30am – Japan inflation (May): prices expected to rise 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (May): sales expected to fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Monday
1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (June): forecast to fall to 9 from 19.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
3am – China industrial production (May): forecast to rise to 4.7%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses4
4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates expected to rise by 25bps to 1%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
5.30am – Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
10am – German ZEW index (June): forecast to fall to -16 from -10.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30pm – US API crude oil inventories (w/e 12 June): stockpiles fell by 9.1 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation (May): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY, from 2.8% in April, and 0.5% MoM from 0.7%. Core CPI expected to be 2.6% YoY from 2.5%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (May): expected to rise 0.6% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 June): stockpiles fell by 7.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – US Federal Reserve rate decision: rates to be held at 3.75%. Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman is bound to be interesting, as his push to cut rates meets with concerns about rising inflation. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – UK employment data: April unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1%, while average earnings (including bonus) rise by 3.6%, down from 4.1%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12pm – BoE rate decision: rates expected to be held at 3.75%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 June): expected to fall to 226K from 229K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan inflation (May): prices expected to rise 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (May): sales expected to fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (18 June):
FTSE 100: Persimmon, Airtel Africa, Compass, Land Securities, 3i, British Land
FTSE 250: AEP Plantations, Tate & Lyle, GB Group
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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