The Week Ahead
Week commencing 5 January
Axel Rudolph's insight
The first week of January includes a plethora of manufacturing and services purchasing managers indices (PMIs), European consumer price index (CPI), retail sales, factory orders and consumer confidence data. Towards the end of the week US employment data will be closely watched as it may give clues as to the future direction of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. On the corporate front, trading statements by NEXT, Sainsbury, Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Greggs could provide a good indication of UK consumer spending in the crucial Christmas trading period.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
4pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): index forecast to slip to 48.0 from 48.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2pm – German inflation rate (December, Preliminary): CPI expected to slow to 2.2% from 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) but to rise to 0.4% versus -0.2% month-on-month (MoM) previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses, indices
10.30pm – US API crude oil stocks change (w/e 2 January): previous reading at 1.7M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
8am – German retail sales (November): expected to rise by 0.6% versus -0.3% MoM and by 1.2% versus 0.9% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.55am – German unemployment change, rate (December): expected to rise by 5k versus 1k and to remain stable at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses, EU indices
11am – Euro Area inflation rate (December, Flash): CPI expected to fall to 2.0% from 2.1% YoY, core to 2.3% from 2.4% YoY and to rise by 0.3% versus -0.3% MoM in November. Markets to watch: EUR indices, EUR crosses
2.15pm – US ADP employment change (December): forecast at -5k versus -32k previously. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US ISM services PMI (December): expected to fall to 52.0 versus 52.6 previously. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm – US JOLTs job openings (November): forecast to drop to 7.6M versus 7.670M previously. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US factory orders (October): forecast at -0.3% versus 0.2% MoM previously. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4.30pm – US EIA crude oil stock change (w/e 2 January): stockpiles fell by 1.934 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
6am – Japan consumer confidence (December): confidence index expected to rise to 37.9 from 37.5. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.00am – German factory orders (November): factory orders expected to rise by 0.5% versus 1.5% MoM previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
8am – UK Halifax house price index (December): expected to grow by 0.1% versus 0% MoM following a 0.7% YoY rise in November. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 3 January): claims are expected to rise to 205k versus 199k in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
8.00am – German industrial production (November): expected to rise by 0.4% versus 1.8% in October. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
11:00am – Euro Area retail sales (November): retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.5% MoM versus 0% previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – Canada unemployment rate (December): expected to rise to 6.7% versus 6.5% previously. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
2.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) (December): expected at 12k versus 64k previously, unemployment rate to rise to 4.7% from 4.6% and average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2% MoM versus 0.1% previously and to remain at 3.5% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4.00pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (January, Preliminary): expected to slip to 52.7 from 52.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
4pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): index forecast to slip to 48.0 from 48.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
2pm – German inflation rate (December, Preliminary): CPI expected to slow to 2.2% from 2.3% YoY but to rise to 0.4% versus -0.2% MoM previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses, indices
10.30pm – US API crude oil stocks change (w/e 2 January): previous reading at 1.7M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Wednesday
8am – German retail sales (November): expected to rise by 0.6% versus -0.3% MoM and by 1.2% versus 0.9% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.55am – German unemployment change, rate (December): expected to rise by 5k versus 1k and to remain stable at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses, EU indices
11am – Euro Area inflation rate (December, Flash): CPI expected to fall to 2.0% from 2.1% YoY, core to 2.3% from 2.4% YoY and to rise by 0.3% versus -0.3% MoM in November. Markets to watch: EUR indices, EUR crosses
2.15pm – US ADP employment change (December): forecast at -5k versus -32k previously. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US ISM services PMI (December): expected to fall to 52.0 versus 52.6 previously. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm – US JOLTs job openings (November): forecast to drop to 7.6M versus 7.670M previously. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US factory orders (October): forecast at -0.3% versus 0.2% MoM previously. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4.30pm – US EIA crude oil stock change (w/e 2 January): stockpiles fell by 1.934 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
6am – Japan consumer confidence (December): confidence index expected to rise to 37.9 from 37.5. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.00am – German factory orders (November): factory orders expected to rise by 0.5% versus 1.5% MoM previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
8am – UK Halifax house price index (December): expected to grow by 0.1% versus 0% MoM following a 0.7% YoY rise in November. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 3 January): claims are expected to rise to 205k versus 199k in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
8.00am – German industrial production (November): expected to rise by 0.4% versus 1.8% in October. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
11:00am – Euro Area retail sales (November): retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.5% MoM versus 0% previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – Canada unemployment rate (December): expected to rise to 6.7% versus 6.5% previously. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
2.30pm – US NFPs (December): expected at 12k versus 64k previously, unemployment rate to rise to 4.7% from 4.6% and average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2% MoM versus 0.1% previously and to remain at 3.5% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4.00pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (January, Preliminary): expected to slip to 52.7 from 52.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
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Full-year earnings |
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| Half/ Quarterly earnings |
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| Trading update | NEXT, |
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Dividends
Index adjustments
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Monday 5 January |
Tuesday 6 January |
Wednesday 7 January |
Thursday 8 January |
Friday 9 January |
Monday 12 January |
| FTSE 100 | ||||||
| Australia 200 | ||||||
| Wall Street | ||||||
| US 500 | ||||||
| Nasdaq 100 | ||||||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | ||||||
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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