The Week Ahead
Week commencing 28 July
Chris Beauchamp insight
The final days of July go out with a bang, being full of key data for investors to monitor. The week includes a decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of Canada, although all three are expected to leave policy unchanged, along with the latest US payroll numbers, Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI) figures and the latest US ISM manufacturing PMI.
Earnings are plentiful on both sides of the Atlantic, including tech heavyweights like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, following on from Tesla and Alphabet last week, but also bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). FTSE 100 titans GSK, AstraZeneca and HSBC also report figures, along with a range of others from across the index.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
None
3pm – US consumer confidence (July): expected to rise to 95 from 93. Markets to watch: USD crosses
9am – German gross domestic product (GDP) (Second quarter (Q2), flash): Quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rate forecast to be 0.1%, down from 0.4%, and year-on-year (YoY) to rise to 0.1% from 0%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, flash): QoQ rate expected to be 0.1%, down from 0.6%, and YoY to slow to 1.2% from 1.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (July): 20,000 jobs expected to have been created, from June’s 33,000 drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (June): sales forecast to rise 1.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 25 July): stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – US Fed rate decision: rates expected to be left unchanged at 4.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.30am – China purchasing managers index (PMI) (July): manufacturing index to move back into expansion territory, at 50.2, from 49.7. Non-manufacturing index forecast to rise to 50.8 from 50.5. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
4am – BoJ rate decision: rates expected to rise to 0.75% from 0.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.55am – German employment (July): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German inflation (July, preliminary): prices expected to rise by 1.9%, a slowdown from June’s 2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 26 July), personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index: claims expected to rise to 219K while prices to rise 0.3% from 0.1% month-on-month (MoM). Core PCE to be 0.3% from 0.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (July): index expected to rise to 43 from 40.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45am – China Caixin manufacturing (July): index expected to rise to 50.8 from 50.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (July, flash): prices expected to rise 1.8% YoY and fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) (July): payrolls forecast to be 110K, down from 147K last month. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings expected to be 3.6% higher, down from 3.7% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (July): activity expected to improve slightly, though remaining in contraction territory at 49.4 from 49 in June. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
None
Tuesday
3pm – US consumer confidence (July): expected to rise to 95 from 93. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
9am – German GDP (Q2, flash): QoQ rate forecast to be 0.1%, down from 0.4%, and YoY to rise to 0.1% from 0%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, flash): QoQ rate expected to be 0.1%, down from 0.6%, and YoY to slow to 1.2% from 1.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (July): 20,000 jobs expected to have been created, from June’s 33,000 drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.75%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (June): sales forecast to rise 1.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 25 July): stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – US Fed rate decision: rates expected to be left unchanged at 4.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
2.30am – China PMI (July): manufacturing index to move back into expansion territory, at 50.2, from 49.7. Non-manufacturing index forecast to rise to 50.8 from 50.5. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
4am – BoJ rate decision: rates expected to rise to 0.75% from 0.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.55am – German employment (July): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German inflation (July, preliminary): prices expected to rise by 1.9%, a slowdown from June’s 2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 26 July), PCE price index: claims expected to rise to 219K while prices to rise 0.3% from 0.1% MoM. Core PCE to be 0.3% from 0.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (July): index expected to rise to 43 from 40.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
2.45am – China Caixin manufacturing (July): index expected to rise to 50.8 from 50.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (July, flash): prices expected to rise 1.8% YoY and fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (July): payrolls forecast to be 110K, down from 147K last month. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings expected to be 3.6% higher, down from 3.7% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (July): activity expected to improve slightly, though remaining in contraction territory at 49.4 from 49 in June. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Full-year earnings |
|
|
|
||
Half/ Quarterly earnings |
HSBC, Meta, Ford, |
International Consolidated Airlines Group, IMI, |
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| Trading update | Entain |
|
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (31 July):
FTSE 100: Lloyds
FTSE 250: MONY, Brunner Investment Trust, HICL Infrastructure
Index adjustments
|
Monday 28 July |
Tuesday 29 July |
Wednesday 30 July |
Thursday 31 July |
Friday 1 August |
Monday 4 August |
| FTSE 100 | 3.01 | |||||
| Australia 200 | ||||||
| Wall Street | ||||||
| US 500 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.55 | 1.64 | 0.77 | 0.30 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | 1.1 | |||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.10 |
| China H-Shares | 2.0 | |||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.74 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | 1.0 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 | 1.6 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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