The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 30 June
Chris Beauchamp insight
A shortened week for United States (US) markets is ahead due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. This means that payroll data has been brought forward to Thursday, which is a half-day for US markets. Also on the agenda this week are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from China, both the official and private sector versions, along with the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMIs, plus German and Eurozone inflation data. Speeches by several Federal Reserve (Fed) members, including Jerome Powell, will be closely monitored as the likelihood of a September interest rate cut increases. Perhaps the only major company update of note will be Sainsbury's in the United Kingdom (UK), which will release a trading update.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
2.30am – China PMI (June): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 50.4, back in expansion territory, from 49.5, while non-manufacturing forecast to rise to 50.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1pm – German CPI (June, preliminary): prices expected to be 2.2% higher YoY in June, from 2.1%, and 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) from 0.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (June): expected to rise to 44 from 40.5. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – speech by Fed member Bostic. Markets to watch: USD crosses
6pm – speech by Fed member Goolsbee. Markets to watch: USD crosses
12.50am – Japan Tankan index second quarter (Q2): activity expected to slow in Q2, with the index falling to 10 from 12. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (June): this private sector survey is expected to show a rise in activity, as the index rises to 49.8 from 48.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
6am – Japan consumer confidence (June): expected to rise to 33.5 from 32.8. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.55am – German unemployment (June): rate forecast to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (June, flash): headline inflation expected to rise to 2% from 1.9%, and 0.3% MoM from 0%. Core CPI to rise to 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) from 2.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – speech by Fed chair Jerome Powell. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (June): index forecast to rise to 50 from 48.5. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): payrolls forecast to rise by 90,000, from 37,000. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 June): Markets to watch: stockpiles fell by 5.84 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 28 June): payrolls forecast to be 100,000 from 139,000, and unemployment rate to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings to rise 3.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 3.9% and 0.4%. Claims forecast to rise to 240K from 236K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (June): index expected to rise to 50.4 from 49.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm – speech by Fed member Bostic. Markets to watch: USD crosses
US Independence Day – US markets closed
Monday
2.30am – China PMI (June): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 50.4, back in expansion territory, from 49.5, while non-manufacturing forecast to rise to 50.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1pm – German CPI (June, preliminary): prices expected to be 2.2% higher YoY in June, from 2.1%, and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (June): expected to rise to 44 from 40.5. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – speech by Fed member Bostic. Markets to watch: USD crosses
6pm – speech by Fed member Goolsbee. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
12.50am – Japan Tankan index (Q2): activity expected to slow in Q2, with the index falling to 10 from 12. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (June): this private sector survey is expected to show a rise in activity, as the index rises to 49.8 from 48.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
6am – Japan consumer confidence (June): expected to rise to 33.5 from 32.8. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.55am – German unemployment (June): rate forecast to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (June, flash): headline inflation expected to rise to 2% from 1.9%, and 0.3% MoM from 0%. Core CPI to rise to 2.4% YoY from 2.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – speech by Fed chair Jerome Powell. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (June): index forecast to rise to 50 from 48.5. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): payrolls forecast to rise by 90,000, from 37,000. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 June): Markets to watch: stockpiles fell by 5.84 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 28 June): payrolls forecast to be 100K from 139K, and unemployment rate to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings to rise 3.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 3.9% and 0.4%. Claims forecast to rise to 240K from 236K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (June): index expected to rise to 50.4 from 49.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm – speech by Fed member Bostic. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
US Independence Day – US markets closed
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Full-year earnings |
|
Baltic Classifieds, Currys, Watches of Switzerland |
|
||
Half/ Quarterly earnings |
Constellation Brands |
|
|
||
| Trading update | Sainsbury’s |
|
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (3 July):
FTSE 100: Next, F&C Investment Trust plc
FTSE 250: Murray International Trust plc, ICG Enterprise Trust, Big Yellow Group, Atalaya Mining, Paragon Banking Group, Workspace Group, Liontrust Asset Management, Safestore Holdings, FirstGroup, PayPoint, Primary Health Properties, NCC Group
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 June |
Tuesday 1 July |
Wednesday 2 July |
Thursday 3 July |
Friday 4 July |
Monday 5 July |
| FTSE 100 | 0.82 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.1 | 0.3 | ||||
| Wall Street | 16.2 | |||||
| US 500 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.98 | 0.08 | 0.03 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 1.63 | 2.16 | 0.17 | 0.12 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 3.0 | 19.3 | 2.0 | |||
| Singapore Blue Chip | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 5.8 | 37.1 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | 30.0 | |||||
| France 40 | 5.0 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 3.4 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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