The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 31 August
Chris Beauchamp's insight
US employment data and PMIs from China and the US dominate the week, while the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged. US payrolls are expected to show small positive growth after last month’s losses. Earnings season in the US is now winding down, with just Costco and Lululemon of note, and only a few UK companies report this week as well, marking a slower start after the summer holiday.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
UK August bank holiday
2.30am – China PMI (August): official PMI statistics are expected to show a recovery in the manufacturing PMI from 49.2 to 49.9, while the non-manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 50.4 from 49. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1pm – Germany CPI (August, preliminary): prices expected to rise 3% YoY from 2.8%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.8%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.45am – China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (August): this private-sector survey is expected to see the index rise to 51.2 from 50.9. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (August, flash): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 2.9% and 0.2% respectively. Core inflation expected to rise to 2.6% from 2.5% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (August): index expected to fall to 55 from 55.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.30am – Australia GDP (Q2): QoQ rate expected to be 0% from 0.3%, and YoY to slow to 1.6% from 2.5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (August): 59,000 jobs forecast to have been created, down from 44,000 last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change in rates from current 2.25% expected. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 August): stockpiles rose by 95,000 in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
2.45am – China RatingDog services PMI (August): index expected to rise to 50.8 from 50.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 August): claims expected to be 203K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (August): forecast to fall to 53.8 from 54.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm - US non-farm payrolls (August): 12,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from a loss of 23,000 last month. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wages expected to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, from 0.1% and 3.2% respectively. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment data (August): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (August): index expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.1. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Monday
UK August bank holiday
2.30am – China PMI (August): official PMI statistics are expected to show a recovery in the manufacturing PMI from 49.2 to 49.9, while the non-manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 50.4 from 49. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1pm – Germany CPI (August, preliminary): prices expected to rise 3% YoY from 2.8%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.8%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday
2.45am – China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (August): this private-sector survey is expected to see the index rise to 51.2 from 50.9. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
10am – eurozone inflation (August, flash): prices expected to rise 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 2.9% and 0.2% respectively. Core inflation expected to rise to 2.6% from 2.5% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (August): index expected to fall to 55 from 55.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
2.30am – Australia GDP (Q2): QoQ rate expected to be 0% from 0.3%, and YoY to slow to 1.6% from 2.5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (August): 59,000 jobs forecast to have been created, down from 44,000 last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change in rates from current 2.25% expected. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 August): stockpiles rose by 95,000 in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
2.45am – China RatingDog services PMI (August): index expected to rise to 50.8 from 50.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 August): claims expected to be 203K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (August): forecast to fall to 53.8 from 54.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
1.30pm - US non-farm payrolls (August): 12,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from a loss of 23,000 last month. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wages expected to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, from 0.1% and 3.2% respectively. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment data (August): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (August): index expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.1. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Company announcements
|
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (3 September):
FTSE 100: Admiral, Antofagasta, Aviva
FTSE 250: Rathbones, Hammerson, Vesuvius, Derwent London, Foresight Environmental, Ithaca Energy, Chesnara, Hochschild Mining
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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