The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 6 April
Chris Beauchamp's insight
March’s US inflation hits markets this week, as the Iran war drives up energy prices around the globe. This sets the scene for a fresh round of anxiety around surging prices and potentially weaker economic growth. While core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to be steady, it seems likely that the rest of the economy will be affected in due course.
Earnings season in the US really kicks off in the following week, but oil giants Exxon and Shell are both reporting this week. Given the surge in oil and gas prices over the last month, these will both be worth watching.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
Easter Monday – UK markets closed
3pm – US ISM services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 56.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (February): forecast to rise 0.6%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (March): activity expected to slow, as the index falls to 51 from 56.6. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 3 April): stockpiles rose by 5.5 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed minutes: the committee left rates unchanged at its meeting, but the discussion around the Iran war will be of interest to markets looking for clues about whether the committee is shifting towards a more hawkish posture. Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 4 April), PCE price index (February): claims forecast to be 215K. PCE prices expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, in line with February. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.30am – China inflation (March): prices forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US consumer price inflation (March): inflation forecast to surge to 0.8% MoM from 0.3%, and 3.1% from 2.4% due to the surge in energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is expected to be 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, compared to 0.2% and 2.5% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (April, preliminary): index expected to fall to 52.9 from 53.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
Easter Monday – UK markets closed
3pm – US ISM services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 56.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (February): forecast to rise 0.6%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (March): activity expected to slow, as the index falls to 51 from 56.6. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Wednesday
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 3 April): stockpiles rose by 5.5 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed minutes: the committee left rates unchanged at its meeting, but the discussion around the Iran war will be of interest to markets looking for clues about whether the committee is shifting towards a more hawkish posture. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Thursday
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 4 April), PCE price index (February): claims forecast to be 215K. PCE prices expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, in line with February. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
2.30am – China inflation (March): prices forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US consumer price inflation (March): inflation forecast to surge to 0.8% MoM from 0.3%, and 3.1% from 2.4% due to the surge in energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is expected to be 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, compared to 0.2% and 2.5% last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (April, preliminary): index expected to fall to 52.9 from 53.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (9 April):
FTSE 100: Lloyds, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC, Centrica, Croda, Haleon, Howden Joinery , Rentokil, Reckitt Benckiser, Standard Life
FTSE 250: Man, Morgan Advanced Materials, ITV, Harbour Energy, Serco, Hunting, TP ICAP, Savills, Softcat
Index adjustments
|
Monday 30 March |
Tuesday 31 March |
Wednesday 1 April |
Thursday 2 April |
Friday 3 April |
Monday 6 April |
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 1.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |
| China H-Shares | 2.3 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 3.9 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| France 40 | 7.8 | |||||
| Stoxx 600 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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