An update on recent trade ideas ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls.

Source: Bloomberg

Suggested shorts on EUR/USD (26 March) at $1.0971 are working well and I feel moving stops to breakeven is prudent. Momentum indicators are starting to work in favour of the trade idea again and a break of $1.0813 (38.2% retracement of 25 February to 13 March sell-off) would suggest a move down to the $1.07 area. I continue to look for downside prior to Friday’s non-farm payrolls.


Longs from 27 March (at ¥119.24) are working nicely as well. The pair is now testing trend resistance drawn from the 23 December high, so a daily close above ¥120.22 would be highly positive for the idea and suggests adding to the trade, with stochastics and the 14-day RSI also moving higher. Stops on the idea could be moved to breakeven.

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Spot gold

I looked at spot gold trades on Friday at $1195 and feel the risk of a negative surprise in this Fridays US payrolls report is fairly high. I am happy to hold a short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY trade for now, but feel given the strong inverse relationship between gold and the USD suggests reducing some exposure to Federal Reserve policy. I feel closing the idea at market (now $1186) for a profit of 0.9% is prudent.

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