IBEX 35 break-out confirmed

Price at time of writing - 8735

Two weeks ago I initiated coverage on Spain's benchmark IBEX 35 index, where early indications on the Gann-theory chart had hinted that a potent break-out might lie ahead.

The price of the IBEX 35 at the time of that update was 8376. I offered two alternative scenarios in the summary recommendation: for risk-tolerant traders I suggested immediately buying the index at those levels, while risk-averse investors were recommended to wait for confirmation in a break above 8665. The 359-point (or 4.3%) subsequent gain has indeed confirmed these early indicators, and a full-blown buy recommendation is in now place.

The key to this break-out lies with the ability of the index to sustain its move above the minor triple-top highlighted in my 30 July update. This triple-top is formed along the neckline of a 'reverse-head-and-shoulder' pattern (see the gently declining red line on the chart, initiating from a minor high in February 2012). Further, it aligns with my resistance line reflecting a 16.66% advance from the minor low in November 2012. The 'neckline' currently resides at around 8640, and is declining at the rate of 18 points per month. 

The implication is that this break-out will eventually carry the index to an ultimate target at 11,810, completing a 100% advance from the historic low created in July 2012. A cluster of historic resistance around this level defines the target band as 11,730-11,810.

Recommendation: stay long. Ultimate target 11,810. Profit-taking opportunities will occur along the way at 9435 and 9841, enabling nimble traders to buy back cheaper. Stop-losses can be activated on momentum beneath 7870.

IBEX 35 index chart

 

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