US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview – October 2025: More Labour Market Weakness In Store?
Friday's employment report has taken on heightened significance as Fed officials signal labour market risks may now outweigh inflation concerns in determining policy direction.
Markets eye October’s jobs data for confirmation of a further slowdown
The October US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, due Friday 3 October, possible US government shutdown permitting, is expected to reinforce signs of cooling in the labour market. Consensus forecasts point to 52,000 new jobs, slightly above September’s 22,000 but notably below all of this year’s gains.
May 2022 – September 2025 US Non-Farm Payrolls
Unemployment is projected to hold steady at 4.3%, extending the gradual drift higher from post-pandemic lows. This trend reflects growing employer caution as economic headwinds weigh on multiple sectors.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), keeping annual wage growth at 3.7%. While still above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% inflation target, this marks a moderation from the peak wage pressures seen in 2022-2023.
May 2021 – September 2025 Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month
Labour market becomes Fed policy fulcrum
Markets are entering Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) release amid intensifying debate about whether the US labour market is merely cooling or showing deeper signs of strain. Recent commentary suggests growing concern that employment is now a fulcrum for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next moves.
Vice Chair Michelle Bowman has publicly flagged labour market risks as now outweighing inflation concerns, arguing for more decisive rate cuts to offset signs of fragility.
Meanwhile, Chair Jerome Powell has described current policy settings as "modestly restrictive" while leaving open the possibility of further easing should labour conditions soften further.
This shift in Fed rhetoric represents a significant change from earlier in the year when inflation remained the primary policy concern.
Government shutdown adds uncertainty
Investors are also watching for external amplifiers to the data's impact. A looming risk of a US federal government shutdown has fed uncertainty into markets, even stirring speculation that a shutdown could delay the release of official jobs figures.
In the wake of that concern, Treasury markets have already started to rally, as investors reposition toward safe assets in anticipation of weaker outcomes.
The potential for delayed data release adds an unusual layer of complexity to an already highly-anticipated economic report.
This uncertainty has contributed to cautious positioning across multiple asset classes as markets await clarity on both the data release timing and the underlying employment trends.
NFP print could reshape rate expectations
Against this backdrop, the NFP print will be a pivotal test. The degree to which job creation continues to ease - or unexpectedly holds up - could reshape expectations for the Fed's rate path.
Recent quarterly projections and forward markets imply that one or two further quarter-point cuts remain on the table for later this year.
If Friday's report confirms a softening labour market, it would bolster those expectations and could even shift market participants toward earlier easing expectations.
But the risk of a surprise rebound in wages or hiring would complicate that narrative and potentially push back timeline expectations for Fed policy accommodation.
Currency markets position ahead of release
Currency markets are already positioning ahead of the release. The US dollar has shown resilience since mid-September, even as broader sentiment wavers amid economic data uncertainty.
Forex positioning suggests that traders are preparing for potential volatility across major currency pairs as the employment data could significantly shift interest rate expectations.
The dollar's recent strength despite dovish Fed rhetoric suggests that markets are waiting for data confirmation before fully committing to expectations of aggressive policy easing.
Asset class implications of different scenarios
As for market reaction, a weak NFP number could reinforce the flight to fixed income and weigh on the dollar, while boosting expectations of policy accommodation.
Equity markets might initially receive the data with caution over economic growth concerns, but could pivot if the easing narrative gains traction and lower rates improve valuation support.
On the flip side, an unexpectedly strong report could trigger a reassessment of rate cut timing, heavier selling in bonds, and short-lived strength in the dollar.
Though that scenario would raise the stakes for equities sensitive to interest rates, as it would suggest tighter financial conditions for longer than currently anticipated.
Critical inflection point for markets
At its core, Friday's payrolls release is shaping up to be much more than a routine data point. It may represent a critical inflection for whether markets consolidate expectations of imminent easing or begin to question whether the window for cuts is narrowing.
The heightened significance reflects the unusual combination of factors including shifting Fed rhetoric, government shutdown risks, and elevated market positioning around policy expectations.
This creates conditions where the NFP report could trigger significant volatility across multiple asset classes as market participants reassess their assumptions about economic trajectory and policy response.
The data's impact will likely extend well beyond the immediate market reaction, potentially influencing Fed decision-making and market positioning for weeks to come.
Trading opportunities around employment data
For traders looking to position themselves around this potentially market-moving economic release, several approaches merit consideration given the elevated uncertainty and potential volatility.
- Research the relationship between employment data, Fed policy expectations, and market reactions to understand potential scenarios and their implications.
- Consider how different asset classes might respond to various employment outcomes and position accordingly based on your market views.
- Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
- Access relevant markets through our platform, including currency pairs, equity indices, and interest rate products sensitive to employment data.
- Implement robust risk management given the potential for sharp moves in either direction based on the employment report and any guidance complications.
Forex trading offers opportunities around NFP releases, particularly in dollar pairs that often see significant movement following employment data surprises.
Spread betting and CFD trading provide flexible approaches for expressing views on how markets might react to employment data across multiple asset classes.
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