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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Look Ahead 20/10/23: UK consumer confidence; Japan CPI; oil; Schlumberger; American Express

Inflation and the consumer will be major themes on Friday when we get consumer confidence, retail and inflation data from the UK and Japan. And oil remains a focus with rising Middle East tensions and Schlumberger results.

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(Video Transcript)

Sterling starting to stumble

Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and this is IGTV. This is your Look Ahead to 20 October 2023. Now, inflation and the consumer and oil will be key in the coming session.

Just want to check on sterling first, because we have consumer confidence numbers out of the UK, along with retail sales and public sector net borrowing, which will be key because it gives us an idea of how the UK economy is faring.

I can tell you that sterling has stumbled in recent sessions as traders remained at risk of us and continue to look towards more UK inflation data, which is unexpectedly sticky, holding at 6.7% in September. And that has renewed concerns that perhaps the Bank of England might have it in them for yet another rate hike.

US Fed comments eagerly awaited

But of course, things brewing and developing in the Middle East are tempering those sources from expectations, if you like; same in the US as well. We're waiting for more comments out from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers a little later in the week.

And much of this will give us an insight as to how they're feeling in terms of what's happening in the Middle East and how they are responding in terms of weakening consumption in those home markets as well.

Further on during the week, we'll also be looking out for inflation numbers out of Japan in the form of core consumer price index (CPI) growth, expected to actually be at 2.7% in September.

China’s kick-start yet to happen

And after that, we are also keeping an eye out for numbers from China because that we've got the loan prime rates there. Many analysts have been hoping for a reopening to kick start out of China, which was meant to boost the rest of the world economy.

But that hasn't happened. Instead, there are cracks emerging in its own property markets. We'll be keeping an eye on loan prime rates very closely.

Further along, as I mentioned earlier, oil has been dominating headlines this week, given what's been happening in the Middle East. Brent was down slightly this session because there is this expectation that the Venezuela's energy sector, we're going to start seeing more oil from there.

Venezuelan oil to bring relief

The US has issued a six-month licence authorising transactions in Venezuela's energy sector, and that is expected to come online soon and ease the supply side in the oil market.

The deal is not expected to quickly expand Venezuela's oil output, but it could boost profits by returning some foreign companies to its oil fields and providing its crew to a wider set of cash paying customers.

And as I mentioned earlier, the consumer is also going to be in focus. And this remains key in the US, especially as we count down to the holiday shopping season.

Just bringing up American Express for you, because American Express is an all-session stock on the IT platform and gives many clients and analysts a bird's eye view to how many of the sectors are progressing across the United States.

American Express is expected to show a rise in quarterly revenues when it reports results in the coming session. Earnings of $2.94 a share are expected. The current average analyst rating on a share is buy, and the breakdown of recommendations is 15 strong buys or buys, nine holds and four sells or strong sells.

Wall Street's need in 12-months price target for American Express is 17,850. It's currently at 15,080. That's a wrap of your Look Ahead to the coming session. Tune in to Beat the Street at 1.30pm and Early Morning Call at 7.30am every weekday for a view ahead of the markets. For more analysis, do check out IG.com. This is IGTV.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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