It’s make-or-break for EUR/USD over the next few days. We’ve been tracking this consolidation in for months now and heading into the close of April trade the focus is on a resolution to this near-term consolidation pattern just above former slope resistance (blue) / turned support. Note that daily RSI (relative strength index) has made a break below a three point support trigger and highlights the threat for a downside break.
Bottom line: Last week’s outside-reversal candle does cast a bearish outlook on price but we’ll need to clear this formation to validate. Key support rests at 1.2167- a break below this threshold would be needed to validate a larger-scale reversal in price targeting the 2012 low at 1.2042 and the 2018 opening-range lows at 1.1916. Interim resistance stands with the February trendline – a breach / close above this mark would shift the focus back toward the critical resistance confluence at 1.2598 where the 61.8% retracement of the 2014 decline converges on the 2008 slope line. For now- look for a break of this range.