EasyJet half-year earnings preview: Can strong demand offset rising fuel costs?
EasyJet reports half-year results on 21 May, with investors focused on whether resilient travel demand can maintain margins despite surging oil prices.
EasyJet half-year earnings preview: Can strong demand offset rising fuel costs?
easyJet is set to report its half-year 2025/26 results on 21 May, with investors focused on whether the airline can maintain strong travel demand and pricing momentum while navigating rising fuel costs and continued operational pressures across the European aviation sector.
The airline is expected to grow revenue by around 13% to £4.0 billion, but show a pre-tax loss of £554.0 million, down around 40% from its SAN1 2025 results.
Strong demand supports revenue growth
easyJet enters the results period with solid momentum following a robust winter trading update earlier in the year. The airline reported that bookings for both winter and summer seasons remained strong, supported by resilient leisure travel demand and continued consumer appetite for holidays despite broader economic uncertainty.
The company previously indicated that it expected to deliver another year of profit growth, underpinned by higher passenger volumes, stronger ticket yields and expanding contribution from its holidays business. easyJet Holidays has become an increasingly important earnings driver, benefiting from demand for package travel and helping diversify the group beyond short-haul airline revenues.
Recent trends across the European airline sector suggest that consumers are still prioritising travel spending, particularly for leisure destinations around the Mediterranean and southern Europe. This has supported fare strength and load factors across major carriers.
Fuel prices and costs become bigger concern
However, the backdrop has become more challenging in recent weeks due to the sharp rise in oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude prices typically feed directly into jet fuel costs, which represent one of the largest operating expenses for airlines.
For easyJet, this creates pressure on margins, especially if fuel costs rise faster than ticket prices. While the company benefits from hedging arrangements that help smooth short-term volatility, sustained high oil prices could weigh on profitability later in the financial year.
Alongside fuel inflation, the airline sector continues to face elevated labour, maintenance and airport costs. Investors will therefore be closely watching commentary around cost guidance and unit cost performance in the upcoming results.
Operational reliability and capacity expansion
Operational performance will also remain a major focus. European airlines experienced widespread disruption during previous summer seasons due to air traffic control constraints, staffing shortages and airport bottlenecks.
easyJet has invested heavily in operational resilience and fleet planning, and investors will want reassurance that disruption levels remain manageable heading into the key summer travel period.
The airline has also continued expanding capacity selectively, particularly on profitable leisure routes and through additional package holiday offerings. Passenger numbers are expected to show healthy year-on-year growth in the half-year update, reflecting this expansion strategy.
EasyJet Holidays continues to shine
One of the strongest areas of the business remains easyJet Holidays, which has consistently outperformed expectations and delivered higher margins than the core airline operation.
The package holiday division has benefited from consumers seeking value and convenience, while also giving easyJet greater control over customer spending and profitability.
Investors will be watching for further growth in holiday bookings and profitability, as management increasingly positions the division as a central part of the long-term strategy.
Balance sheet and shareholder focus
easyJet’s balance sheet has improved considerably since the pandemic period, supported by stronger cash generation and profitability recovery. The upcoming results are expected to provide updates on liquidity, debt reduction and capital allocation priorities.
Although the airline sector remains cyclical and vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, improved financial stability has strengthened investor confidence in easyJet relative to several years ago.
Analyst ratings and technical analysis of the easyJet share price
According to LSEG Data & Analytics analysts rate easyJet as between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ with a mean long-term price target at 455.63p, 30% above current levels (as of 15/05/2026).
TipRanks has given easyJet a ‘3 Underperform’ Smart Score and rates the airline’s shares as a ‘hold’.
The easyJet share price - down around 33% year-to-date – remains close to this year’s key March-to-May support at 341.2p-to-337.1p.
easyJet monthly candlestick chart
A slip through the March low at 337.1p would likely engage the December 2022 low at 320.5p. Further down lies the post-pandemic October 2022 trough at 276.9p.
For a bottom to be formed a break through the February-to-May resistance line, a rise above the 7 May high at 381.9p and, most importantly, a rise and weekly chart close above the April peak at 415.7p would need to be seen. Only then could a gradual advance towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 456.2p be envisaged.
easyJet daily candlestick chart
What investors will watch on 21 May
The market will focus closely on passenger volumes, ticket yields and summer booking trends, alongside fuel cost guidance and overall profitability. Investors will also assess operational performance, particularly around disruption levels and capacity utilisation, as well as the continued growth trajectory of easyJet Holidays.
What the results mean for investors
easyJet heads into its half-year results with strong consumer demand and improving operational momentum, but faces a more difficult cost environment due to rising oil prices and broader inflationary pressures.
If the airline can demonstrate continued pricing strength, resilient bookings and disciplined cost management, confidence in the recovery story is likely to strengthen further.
However, any deterioration in margins or weaker summer demand guidance could raise concerns that the sector's post-pandemic rebound is beginning to moderate.
How to invest in easyJet shares
Investors interested in European aviation exposure through easyJet have several options. Here's how to approach investing:
Research easyJet's latest results, airline sector trends and fuel market dynamics thoroughly. Understanding aviation economics helps inform decisions. How to invest in stocks provides background.
Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account to access UK-listed shares. easyJet trades under ticker EZJ.
Search for easyJet plc shares on the trading platform. Review pricing, fuel exposure and analyst recommendations.
Choose the number of shares or investment value based on your portfolio strategy. Consider whether to hold shares in a general account, ISA or SIPP for tax efficiency.
Place your trade and monitor your investment over time. easyJet provides half-yearly results and quarterly updates.
Remember airline stocks are cyclical and sensitive to fuel prices and economic conditions. Diversification reduces concentration risk whilst maintaining exposure to European aviation and trading leisure travel recovery.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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