Bitcoin tests key resistance as ETF inflows and institutional demand drive rally

​​​Bitcoin tries to break through key resistance

​Bitcoin has experienced a dynamic start to March, with price action shaped by a mixture of geopolitical developments, institutional flows and positioning shifts across derivatives markets. After a volatile beginning of the year, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has been attempting to stabilise since early February, only to encounter another period of relatively sharp swings before staging a renewed recovery.

​Since its 9 March low, Bitcoin has been gradually rising each day and is on track for its eight consecutive day of gains, something not seen for many months. At the same time the cryptocurrency is testing resistance at its early March high.

​Underpinning this drive higher are re-emerging institutional demand and renewed inflows in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after a period of outflows earlier in the year, signalling that large investors were once again adding exposure. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs alone attracted roughly $500 million in a single day in early March, breaking a five-week streak of withdrawals and indicating a shift in market sentiment.

​More broadly, ETF flows across the month have remained robust. By mid-March, Bitcoin funds had absorbed roughly $2.8 billion in net inflows, one of the strongest months since the launch of spot products. These inflows helped tighten supply conditions in the market and provided a structural underpinning for the price recovery even as volatility remained elevated.

​Corporate demand has also played a role in shaping the narrative. One of the most prominent Bitcoin-focused companies, Strategy, announced that it had purchased approximately $1.28 billion worth of Bitcoin between 2 March and 8 March, adding nearly 18,000 BTC to its holdings. The move reinforced the perception that certain institutional players remain committed to accumulating the asset during periods of market weakness.

​As the month progressed, Bitcoin began to climb steadily back towards the low-$74,000 mark. The rebound was helped by improving sentiment across the broader crypto market and a gradual rebuilding of demand from both institutional and retail investors. Analysts also noted that spot demand conditions improved compared with the start of the year, with selling pressure moderating and US buying activity strengthening.

​Geopolitical developments have been another important driver of Bitcoin’s behaviour this month. While heightened global tensions initially triggered risk-off selling, the cryptocurrency later began trading more like a defensive asset as the situation evolved. Investors once again increasingly view digital assets as a potential hedge against geopolitical instability and market uncertainty.

​Derivatives positioning has amplified several of these moves. In early March, funding rates in Bitcoin futures markets had cooled and leverage had been reduced following the earlier sell-off. When prices began to rebound, short positions were squeezed and traders rushed to close bearish bets. This wave of short covering accelerated the recovery and helped push Bitcoin higher towards resistance levels that had capped earlier rallies.

​Despite the rebound, Bitcoin’s trajectory through March has not been entirely smooth. Each rally attempt has encountered selling pressure near previously established resistance zones as traders lock in profits after rapid gains. This has produced a pattern of advances followed by consolidation phases as the market searches for a clearer directional trend.

​Underlying fundamentals have remained relatively stable throughout this period. Long-term holders have largely maintained their positions, and exchange balances have not surged dramatically, suggesting that the volatility has been driven more by trading dynamics than by widespread distribution from core investors.

​Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s direction for the remainder of March will likely depend on whether institutional inflows continue and whether geopolitical developments remain supportive of the asset’s evolving “digital safe-haven” narrative. If demand from ETFs and corporate buyers remains strong, Bitcoin could attempt to push decisively above recent highs. Conversely, renewed macro uncertainty or a rebuilding of excessive leverage could once again introduce volatility.

​For now, Bitcoin’s performance since the beginning of March illustrates a market in transition. Institutional infrastructure and large-scale investment vehicles continue to provide structural support, yet the asset remains highly responsive to global events and shifts in investor sentiment, factors that are likely to keep volatility elevated even as adoption deepens.

​Bitcoin bullish case:

​As long as Bitcoin remains above its 24 February low at $62,527.40, upside pressure is expected to dominate with a break through the key $70,040.75 - $74,071.02 key resistance area remaining on the cards.

​A rise above the 4 March high at $74,071.02 has already gotten close to the April 2025 low at $74,441. This resistance area needs to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis for the March 2025 low at $76,702.93 to be reached next, ahead of the $80,000 region.

​Bitcoin bearish case:

​While the area around the April 2025 low at $74,441.20 caps, another down leg may ensue with the 10 March high at $71,792.52 representing the first downside target ahead of the late February high at $70,057.25. Further down lie the 12-to-19 February lows at $65,631.93 - $65,107.17 as well as the 24-to-28 February lows at $63,046.65 - $62,527.40 ahead of the early February trough at $60,132.75.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 11 March low at $68,983.33.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral while below the April 2025 low at $74,441.20; if bettered on a daily chart closing basis, though, our forecast would turn bullish, targeting the November low at $80,619.71.

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart