FTSE 100 finds support as EUR/USD, WTI look bid
FTSE Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 as it finds interim support while EUR/USD and WTI rise.
Macro update
Oil rises on stalled talks: Brent crude edged up around 1% to above $101 per barrel as US-Iran peace efforts faltered and disruption to Middle East supply persisted.
Hormuz disruption continues: Shipping through the strait remains severely constrained, with Iran effectively shutting the route and the US maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports, tightening global supply.
War premium builds: Escalating rhetoric from Washington and ongoing uncertainty around the conflict have kept a substantial geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
Goldman lifts outlook: Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90, highlighting upside risks from supply shocks, low inventories and refined product shortages.
Equities supported by AI: Asian indices including the Nikkei, Kospi and Taiwan benchmarks reached record highs, driven by semiconductor strength and optimism around AI demand.
Central banks in focus: The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan are all expected to hold rates this week, as markets reassess rate cut expectations amid oil-driven inflation concerns.
FTSE 100 finds interim support
The FTSE 100 is trying to level out above its 7-to-23 April lows at 10,339-to-10,329. As long as this support zone holds on a daily chart closing basis, another up leg may be formed.
A daily chart close below 10,329 may trigger a deeper correction towards the 13 March low at 10,198, though.
Short-term outlook: consolidating while below the current April high at 10,724 but so far holding above the 7 April 10,329 low
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 10,329, failure there may push the 9 March low at 10,079 to the fore.
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD bounces off support
EUR/USD is seen bouncing off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1675 towards the $1.1766-to-$1.1776 region. If overcome, the early March high at $1.1822 may also be reached.
Were a slip through last week's low at $1.1669 to be seen, though, the 17-to-20 March highs at $1.1648 would be back in the picture.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 23 April low at $1.1669, failure there would eye the $1.1648 support level
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 April $1.1506 low
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI remains bid
Heightened tensions in the Middle East bid the crude price up with a rise above last week's high at $98.39 potentially putting the 16-to-23 March highs at $101.67-to-$102.44 back on the cards.
Potential slips may find support around the 8 April low at $91.05.
Short-term outlook: bullish while below the 23 April $92.30 low
Medium-term outlook: toppish while below the 13 April high at $105.63
WTI daily candlestick chart
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