US stocks end green on robust earnings as attention turns to in limbo labour market data

US tech stocks rally lifts equity markets

United States (US) equity markets rose on Friday, propelled by a strong performance in tech stocks following a week dominated by mostly positive earnings reports and the US-China trade truce. This enabled key US equity indices to close the week in positive territory, despite a hawkish surprise from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell during last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.97% for the week, theDow Jones added 355 points (0.75%), and the S&P 500 finished 0.71% higher.

Fed officials signal divergent views

Following Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish surprise last week, in which he pushed back against expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, speeches from key Fed officials on Friday underscored divergent views.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocated a cautious approach to monetary policy, stating preference to maintain steady rates this week given persistent high inflation and ongoing uncertainty. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also opposed the recent October rate cut, expressing a preference for holding rates steady. Hammack emphasised that current policy is ‘barely restrictive, if at all’ and argued for maintaining a restrictive stance to curb inflation, pointing out that inflationary pressures extend beyond tariffs and that core services remain robust.

In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller maintained a dovish perspective, suggesting that the Fed should proceed with rate cuts in December, citing potential risks to labour market stability.

Labour market data in focus

With the US Government shutdown set to extend this week – likely putting Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings and Non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on hold – the focus will be on the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report and the employment component within the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) to assess the health of the US labour market.

ADP employment change

Date: Thursday, 6 November at 12.15am AEDT

In September, the ADP employment report showed private business cut 32,000 jobs, following a revised loss of 3000 in August and below expectations of a 50,000 gain. It was the sharpest job decline since March 2023 and the first time since 2020 that the private sector has cut jobs for two consecutive months.

This trend confirmed signs of labour market cooling evident in other key measures of employment, which prompted the Fed to cut rates by 25 bp last week. For October, the primary expectation is for a rise of 24,000 jobs.

The US interest rate market is pricing in 17 bp of rate cuts for the December FOMC meeting and a total of 82 bp of Fed rate cuts between now and December 2026.

US ADP employment rate change chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The rally from the September 22,977 low is viewed as an extending Wave V from the April 16,542 low. Within our preferred Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence.

A solid indication that a Wave V advance is complete and that a deeper correction has begun would be if the Nasdaq 100 were to see a sustained break or close below short-term horizontal and trend line support at 25,000ish. This would warn that a deeper pullback is underway, initially towards a band of support between 24,200 - 23,950.

Aware that while the Nasdaq 100 holds above short-term support at 25,000, allow for the uptrend in the Nasdaq to continue towards the next upside target of 27,000.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

S&P 500 technical analysis

The rally from the 6360 low on 2 September is viewed as an extending Wave V from the 4835 low on 16 April. Within the Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence.  

An initial indication that a Wave V advance is complete and that a correction has begun would be if the S&P 500 cash were to see a sustained break or close below short-term support at 6760 - 6740ish. This would warn that a deeper pullback is underway, initially towards a band of support near 6550.

Aware that while the S&P 500 holds above short-term support at 6760 - 6740ish and medium-term support at 6550ish, allow for the uptrend in the S&P 500 to continue towards the next upside target at 7000.

S&P 500 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 3 November 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}