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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

​​​Ocado set to report first half results on 17 July 2025: what to expect

​​Ocado Group prepares to unveil first half results with analysts forecasting revenue decline but improved earnings performance across key segments.​

Source: Bloomberg images

Written by

Axel Rudolph FSTA

Axel Rudolph FSTA

Senior Technical Analyst

Article publication date:

Key financial metrics and analyst expectations

Ocado Group will issue its first-half (H1) results on Thursday, 17 July 2025, following a prior earnings per share (EPS) beat of 26.1pence (p) versus 31.3p expected. Analysts anticipate a similar H1 performance, with blended forecasts pointing to improvements in both revenue and operating metrics.

Fiscal year 2025 key stats:

  • EPS: -33.2p, +28.2% year-on-year (YoY)
  • Projected revenue: £3.38 billion (+7.1% YoY), driven by the retail segment's steady momentum and measured growth in technology solutions
  • Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: -5.9, signalling an ongoing net loss
  • Dividend yield: 0, as Ocado currently doesn’t distribute dividends.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Data & Analytics, analysts are split with 3 ‘strong buy’, 3 ‘buy’, 4 ‘hold’, 4 ‘sell’, and 1 ‘strong sell’ rating for Ocado, with a mean long-term price target of 287p, 24% above the current share price (as of 16 July 2025).

Ocado historical trends and price targets

Ocado historical trends and price targets chart ​Source: LSEG Data & Analytics
Ocado historical trends and price targets chart ​Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

Ocado has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘1 Underperform’ and is rated as a ‘sell’ with 1 ‘buy’, 0 ‘hold’, and 2 ‘sell’ recommendations (as of 16 July 2025).

Revenue outlook across business segments

For fiscal year (FY) 2025, analysts expect Ocado Group to generate total group revenue in the £3.38 billion range. The second quarter (Q2) is likely to align with this trend, driven by the retail segment's steady momentum.

Measured growth in technology solutions continues to support overall revenue performance. The company's diversified business model provides stability across different market conditions and customer segments.

The retail partnership with Marks & Spencer (M&S) has proven successful, with customers responding positively to the enhanced product range and service quality improvements implemented throughout the collaboration.

Segment performance analysis and growth drivers

The logistics segment should deliver mid- to high-single-digit revenue increases, compounded by margin pressure from higher operating costs. This segment continues to benefit from increased demand for automated fulfilment solutions.

Technology solutions will be under the spotlight, particularly since FY 2025 growth guidance has been trimmed to around 10%, down from 18.9% in the prior year. Investors will look closely at commentary on the timing of the next few fulfilment centre launches.

North American expansion remains a key focus area, including Kroger sites where implementation remains gradual. The pace of international rollouts directly impacts the company's long-term growth trajectory and market penetration strategies.

Shares in technology-focused retailers like Ocado sometimes reflect investor sentiment about automation trends and digital transformation in retail sectors globally.

Profitability metrics and cash flow progression

Analyst consensus forecasts robust FY 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) around £212 million. Markets will scrutinise signs of progression towards Ocado's target of free cash flow positivity by 2026.

Cost reduction initiatives, including approximately 500 research and development (R&D) job cuts, demonstrate management's commitment to operational efficiency. These measures should contribute to improved margin performance across the business.

Any incremental margin improvement within tech or logistics would signal meaningful progress towards profitability targets. The company's technology platform investments are beginning to show returns through improved operational efficiency.

Free cash flow generation remains the ultimate measure of business success. Investors are particularly focused on the realistic pathway to achieving positive free cash flow by 2026 as previously guided.

Market sentiment and technical analysis

Despite improving sentiment by some analysts, JPMorgan recently upgraded Ocado to overweight, critical execution risks remain around technology implementation and international expansion. The company must deliver on ambitious growth targets while managing operational complexities.

The Ocado share price remains in a long- to medium-term downtrend and is seen sliding towards its major 226.1p to 222.1p support zone, which contains the March and June lows.

​Ocado daily candlestick chart

​Ocado daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView
​Ocado daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView

Were the 226.1p to 222.1p support area to give way, the June 2006 low at 203p and the psychological 200p region may be reached.

​Ocado monthly candlestick chart 

​Ocado monthly candlestick chart Source: TradingView
​Ocado monthly candlestick chart Source: TradingView

For the short-term technical picture to become bullish, the Ocado share price needs to rise above its current July high at 247.1p. If so, it would also break through its April-to-July downtrend line and open the way for the mid-June high at 267.8p to be revisited.

Other potential upside targets in such a bullish reversal scenario are the late May 282.5p high, followed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 295.4p and the psychological 300p region.

Trading in Ocado shares requires careful attention to both fundamental developments and technical chart patterns, particularly around results announcements.

Key watchpoints for upcoming results

Are technology launches in North America progressing on schedule, or slipping? The timing of international expansion directly impacts revenue growth and market share gains in competitive markets.

Is the path to break-even free cash flow in 2026 still realistic? Management commentary on cost reduction progress and margin improvement will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence.

Can retail sustain earnings growth in partnership with M&S, and offset pressures elsewhere? The retail segment's performance increasingly supports overall group profitability and strategic positioning.

Technology solutions commentary will be particularly important given the revised growth guidance. Investors need clarity on customer pipeline development and implementation timelines for major contracts.

Share trading around earnings requires careful risk management, particularly given Ocado's history of volatile post-results price movements.

Contract for difference (CFD) trading allows investors to gain exposure to Ocado's results without full capital commitment, suitable for those seeking short-term trading opportunities.

How to trade Ocado results

  1. Research Ocado's business model thoroughly, including retail operations, technology licensing, and international expansion strategies. Understanding these segments helps predict results' impact on share price performance.
  2. Consider both trading and investing approaches based on your time horizon and risk tolerance. Results announcements often create short-term volatility that may not reflect long-term value creation.
  3. Choose whether you want to trade or invest around Ocado's results. Trading platforms provide real-time data and analysis tools for making informed decisions.
  4. Open an account with us to access Ocado shares and comprehensive market analysis. Our platform offers research tools and risk management features for results trading.
  5. Search for Ocado on our platform to monitor pre-results price action and analyst commentary. Consider using limit orders and stop-losses to manage risk around the potentially volatile results announcement period.

Important to know

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.  Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.