First 100 days of Trump set for worst market performance in half a century...but there are ‘defensive stock’ winners amid tariff turmoil

London, Tuesday 29th April - The US stock market is on course to suffer its worst performance in the first 100 days of a President in almost half a century, but for opportunistic investors, there have been some major winners.

Analysis from trading and investing platform IG shows how traditional ‘defensive’ stocks have held up well – with healthcare, big tobacco and budget retailers offering investors some refuge amid the tariff-fuelled market pullback (See Table 1), whilst gold miners and defence companies have also seen siginficant gains.

As of Monday 28th April, the US’ leading stock index, the S&P 500, is down 7.8% since President Trump was sworn into office, with only Richard Nixon’s first 100 days in 1973 surpassing Trump, with a 9.7% market slump.

While there have been few hiding places for investors, certain stocks have seen huge outperformance since early in the year. One common theme has been defence – with Donald Trump’s anti-European shift helping to power a European defence spending surge with the FTSE 100's BAE Systems (36%) and Babcock International (60%) seeing high returns.

With gold reaching record highs this month as investors sought safe havens, mining and gold companies have also significantly outperformed in Trump's first 100 days, with the FTSE’s Endeavour Mining (33%) and Fresnillo (46%) seeing large share price gains, whilst across the pond, Newmont Corp has also jumped (29%).

Commenting, Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG, said: “Far from being a golden age for US stocks, Trump’s first 100 days have resulted in huge volatility for global markets, but especially for Wall Street, which has become a victim of its own success due to the expensive nature of US stocks. Priced for perfection, US stocks have taken a tumble, and the outlook remains remarkably uncertain due to the administration’s flip-flopping on tariffs.

“However, Trump’s chaotic first 100 days have lit a fire under classic defensive stocks. Investors have rushed to the old reliables - healthcare, tobacco, and gold - as the market has taken a pounding. Meanwhile another big winner has been defence, as European governments seem set to shed their parsimonious ways and finally start spending money on their militaries.”

With recession fears increasing during Trump’s first few months in the Oval Office thanks to his unpredictable tariff agenda, budget stores in the US have also outperformed, on the assumption that consumers will trade down during hard times. Retailer Dollar General is up 37% since January 20, with Kroger & Co also performing strongly over the same period.

Meanwhile big tobacco and telecommunications - both traditional defensive plays – have produced some Trump winners with Philip Morris climbing (40%) while Airtel Africa and AT&T are up 34% and 20% respectively.

Beauchamp adds: “In past downturns, consumers have traded down - and markets are betting the same will happen again if we do slip into a recession. Budget chains are seen as winners when wallets get squeezed. Meanwhile, in uncertain times investors tend to head to stocks that pay solid dividends, helping to cushion the blow of capital loss with regular income.

“Given the uncertainty around the outlook for the global economy and the potential for an extended trade war between the US and China, the recent falls in global stock markets, particularly in the US, may be just the beginning. This could make so-called defensive stocks even more attractive.”

Table 1: Shows biggest stock market winners since Donald Trump’s 20 January inauguration

*Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Data from Reuters/IG on 28.04.2025

 

Table 2: Ranks Presidents by worst market performance in first 100 days since WW