The week ahead: 14-18 July

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

Google headquarters: Google announces Q2 results next Thursday
Source: Bloomberg

It was a week of equity losses, as the eurozone crisis exploded back onto screens with reports of problems at Portugal’s Espiriton Santo. At the end of the week indices seem calmer, holding above key support, but the damage to confidence has been done.

Gold surged, however, pushing through $1330 as the ‘flight to safety’ trade was reignited. Meanwhile, the euro fought hard to hold $1.36 against the dollar, even as the pound refused to move lower despite no change from the Bank of England.

Economic reports

Tuesday

BoJ meeting (July), tentative: This is not expected to see any change, but watch for commentary around deflation issues.  Market to watch: USD/JPY, Nikkei 225

RBA minutes (July), 2.30am: All eyes shift to the RBA as they publish their latest set of minutes. Market to watch: AUD/USD

UK CPI (June), 9.30am: Price growth in the UK should rise to 1.6%, from 1.5% in May year-on-year, although it is expected to hold steady at -0.1% month-on-month. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD

German ZEW (July), 10am: This should see an edging back of readings from the previous month, in line with the weakening of the German economy. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US retail sales (June) and Empire manufacturing (July), 1.30pm: Sales in the US are forecast to rise to 0.6% MoM, with the Empire manufacturing index expected to weaken to 17 from 19.28. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Wednesday

Chinese retail sales & industrial production (June), GDP (2nd quarter), 3am: All these gauges should increase, reinforcing the idea that the Chinese economy is rebounding. Market to watch: China A50, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, copper

UK unemployment figures (May/June), 9.30am: These figures are expected to show further improvement in the UK economy, with the ILO rate dropping to 6.5% from 6.6% in April. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US PPI (June), 1.30am: Price growth should rebound in June from May, hitting 0.2% MoM from -0.2% a month ago, although the YoY figure is expected to drop to 1.9% from 2%. Market to watch: Dollar crosses

Bank of Canada rate decision (July), 3pm: The RBC is forecast to leave rates on hold at 1%. Market to watch: CAD/USD

US Beige Book (July), 7pm: This informal survey of the US economy helpes to gauge the economic situation. Markets to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Thursday

Eurozone CPI (June), 10am: While YoY figures are not expected to change from 0.5%, the MoM growth rate should rise to 0.1% from -0.1% in May. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US housing starts, building permits (June), jobless claims (week of 10 June), 1.30pm: Housing starts and building permits should rise from the previous month, but jobless claims are forecast to rise to 310,000 from 304,000. Market to watch:  US indices, dollar crosses

Phildelphia Fed (July), 3pm: This index is expected to fall to 16 from 17.8, but it tends to be quite volatile so the reading may well be markedly different. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Friday

Canadian CPI (June), 1.30pm:  Growth YoY is forecast to rise to 2.4% from 2.3% in May YoY, although MoM price growth is expected to slacken to -0.2% from 0.5%. Market to watch: USD/CAD

University of Michigan confidence (July, preliminary), 2.55pm: This confidence reading is expected to rise to 83, from 82.5 for the final June reading. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

 

Company announcements

Monday

Aveva, Citigroup

Tuesday

Michael Page, Dairy Crest, ITE, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, CSX, Intel, Yahoo!, Johnson & Johnson

Wednesday

London Stock Exchange, Fresnillo, Rio Tinto, BTG, RPC, Evraz, Severn Trent, British Land, US Bancorp, BlackRock, Bank of America, eBay

Thursday

Land Securities, Computacenter, SSE, Philip Morris, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Schlumberger, Google, AMD

Friday

Honeywell, General Electric, BNY Mellon, American Airlines

 

US earnings season begins in earnest this week, after a good start from Alcoa. After a weaker first quarter, this set of earnings needs to be encouraging to avoid worrying investors. 

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