The markets’ general perception last week was that Crimea would vote to rejoin Russia in this weekend’s referendum. Of course, considering there was no option on the ballots to keep the current status quo, this was a bit of a forgone conclusion. Arguably the more important issue on top of the referendum vote was the avoidance of any military action taken by any of the involved parties. The US has taken a very public and moral high stance over developments in Crimea; however its European counterparts, more directly linked with Russia, have been less inclined to do so.
The markets will also be focusing some of their attention to the economic data releases this week, and today’s confirmation that EU inflation has once again dropped to 0.7% will bring fresh issues to the desk of European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. The longer inflation remains below 1%, let alone the targeted 2%, the more likely that he will be forced into action. Tomorrow will also see the release of the latest German ZEW confidence figures, one of the more valued barometers of EU sentiment.
The DAX has once again bounced back above the 200-day moving average, but still sits down 5.25% from the start of the year. Having recently emerged from oversold territory the index could stage an effort to reclaim some of this year’s lost ground, assuming that Black Sea developments don’t interfere.