The potential tapering of quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve, which may come as early as September of this year, does tend to add up to a clear long USD/JPY trade, fundamentally speaking. The notion that the BoJ is a small player when up against the mighty Fed in terms of ability to buy bonds tends to test this theory.
Japan’s machinery orders have disappointed the market, declining by 8.8% versus the 8.6% expected. On the positive side, the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) points to inflation; it was shy of the estimate but still implies that the aggressive tactics employed by the BoJ are taking traction.
To resume the overall bullish trend, I’d ideally prefer to see a rise back towards the 99.00 level; this would bring the longer term trend line back into play. For now, I expect that we will find resistance around 99.90/100.00.
Should the 96.50 fail at this juncture, I would expect the 95.00 level to offer support once again.