GBP/USD bounce looks to be short-lived
Yesterday saw the Monetary Policy Committee confirm the voting at the last interest rate decision meeting. Unsurprisingly, the vote remained 9-0 against any change. However, the minutes of this meeting did reveal that two members have voiced their thoughts on the possibility of raising the rate.
The currency markets are still factoring in the first US interest rate rise for September 2015, and for the UK they are looking toward either Q2 or Q3 2016. For the time being, these two timelines look unlikely to change. The big unknown in this equation remains to be when the UK will hold a referendum on its inclusion in the EU and how close the results are.
The inflation picture for the UK still remains clouded but this morning’s much better-than-expected retail sales figures might well help it move closer to the targeted 2% level.
GBP/USD has bounced in the last 24 hours as we have once again heard from the US Federal Reserve. However, the reasons for optimism still remain stacked in favour of the dollar and last week’s high could well be a barrier that GBP/USD finds too tough to break.