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Bitcoin halving 2028: what to know

The next bitcoin halving is expected to happen around mid-2028. Discover what bitcoin halving is, why it happens, how you could profit from it, what the associated risks are and more.

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What is bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin halving (or halvening) is an event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur once every 210,000 blocks – roughly every four years – until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network.

Bitcoin halvings reduce the supply of new coins, so prices could rise if demand remains strong. This has happened in the months before and after previous halvings, causing the price of bitcoin (BTC) to appreciate rapidly. However, the circumstances surrounding each halving are different and demand for the cryptocurrency can experience drastic fluctuations.

When is the next bitcoin halving?

The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur mid-2028, when the number of blocks hits 1,050,000. It will see the block reward fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The exact date of the halving isn’t yet known as the time it takes the network to generate new blocks varies, with an average of one block every ten minutes.

Bitcoin halvings; key events

Event Date Block number Block reward New total of coins
Bitcoin launches 3 January 2009 0 (genesis block) 50 BTC 10,500,000 BTC
1st halving 28 Novemeber 2012 210,000 25 BTC 5,250,000 BTC
2nd halving 9 July 2016 420,000 12.5 BTC 2,625,000 BTC
3rd halving 11 May 2020 630,000 6.25 BTC 1,312,500 BTC
4th halving 20 April 2024 840,000 3.125 BTC 656,250 BTC
5th halving Expected mid-2028 1,050,000 1.5625 BTC 328,125 BTC

A bitcoin halving occurs after 210,000 blocks have been mined – this happens approximately every four years. This is expected to continue until around the year 2140, when all 21 million coins have been mined.

How to invest in bitcoin with us

  1. Do research on bitcoin and investing in it
  2. Open a spot crypto account 
  3. Search for ‘bitcoin’ in our platform
  4. Open and monitor your position

With us, you’ll take beneficial ownership of the cryptocurrencies you buy, held by our partner Uphold. You’ll profit if you sell your coins when the price rises beyond your original buy price. If you sell them at a price that’s lower than the original buy price, you’ll incur a loss. 

What happened the last time bitcoin halved?

The last bitcoin halving happened on 20 April 2024 at a block height of 840,000 – this was bitcoin's fourth halving event. Block height is a position in a blockchain, counted by the number of confirmed blocks before it. During this halving, the block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

During the bitcoin halving of 20 April 2024, the cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $64,000. The price was relatively volatile in the weeks leading up to the halving, having reached an all-time high of around $73,000 in March 2024 before experiencing a retracement.

A chart showing bitcoin’s first four halving event dates Source: IG

This data has been sourced from coinmarketcap.com. Please note that all figures refer to the past and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. It’s also worth noting that this chart is in USD (US Dollars), results may be different in other currencies. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

Price of bitcoin during previous halvings

  • 11 May 2020: the coin's price surged from around $6,900 on 11 April (a month before its third halving) to about $8,800 at the time of the event itself. Widespread institutional adoption of bitcoin began to take shape around late 2020. Despite significant volatility, the cryptocurrency’s price continued to rise over the course of the next year, reaching over $60,000 in March 2021
  • 9 July 2016: bitcoin’s second halving occurred at a time when bitcoin was gaining more mainstream attention, even though it was still considered a relatively niche investment. Bitcoin was trading at about $650 per coin during its second halving. By the end of 2017, bitcoin had reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000
  • 28 November 2012: representing bitcoin’s early days, the cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $12 per coin during its first halving. Despite this halving occurring long before bitcoin’s mainstream adoption, the crypto’s price appreciated significantly over the next year, eventually reaching around $1,000 by November 2013

Please note that all figures refer to historical performance, which is not a reliable indicator of future results. All amounts are quoted in US dollars, and outcomes may differ in other currencies. Returns may increase or decrease due to currency fluctuations. This data has been sourced from coinmarketcap.com.

How bitcoin halving affects BTC’s price

It’s not yet clear how the next halving will impact bitcoin’s price. Many commentators believe that the price will follow a similar pattern to the previous four halvings, rising after the event itself as the supply of new coins is constrained.

However, any price rise will depend on how demand for bitcoin shapes up over the course of the halving. Demand is by no means certain to increase – or even remain static – as there are other well-established cryptocurrencies competing for users.

How does bitcoin halving work?

Bitcoin halving is built into the network’s underlying blockchain software, which dictates the rate at which new bitcoins are created. The software requires computers in the network to compete to verify transactions through a process known as ‘mining’.

Transactions are verified in groups called ‘blocks’ and the network is coded to halve the reward received by miners after every 210,000 blocks. The reward is a number of new bitcoins, eg 3.125 BTC per block, when they can prove that the transactions they’ve selected are valid. 

What happens to miners when the bitcoin reward is halved?

When the block reward is halved, some users may calculate that their mining activity will no longer be profitable due to costs such as electricity and hardware. Some users may stop mining altogether if the price of bitcoin doesn’t rise to offset the reward cut.

Having less users leads to a reduction of processing power in the network. But it shouldn’t affect the speed at which blocks are mined, as the software automatically adjusts the difficulty of verifying transactions to maintain a steady rate.

What happens when all 21 million bitcoins have been mined?

When the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been mined, users will no longer receive bitcoins for verifying blocks. However, they’ll continue to receive transaction fees – contributed by those making payments – as an incentive to verify transactions.

It’s estimated that the last new bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. At this point, the cryptocurrency could become deflationary as coins can be ‘lost’ through user error – for example, by sending coins to an invalid address.

Why does bitcoin halve?

Bitcoin halves due to the design of its software, which was created by a mysterious person or group using the assumed pseudonym ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’.

While Satoshi Nakamoto hasn’t explained the reasons behind halvings, many have speculated that the system was designed to distribute coins more quickly at the beginning to incentivise people to join the network and mine new blocks. Under this theory, block rewards were programmed to halve at regular intervals because the value of each coin rewarded was deemed likely to increase as the network expanded.

Another theory is that the halvings were put in place to introduce deflationary measures into the coin, so the number of new coins rewarded per block is pre-determined. In the fiat monetary system, overprinting by central banks can result in sustained reduction in the value of the currency. In bitcoin, this risk is hedged through the fixed total supply available and the pre-determined rate of printing new bitcoins.

One criticism of bitcoin’s design – including halvings and the finite supply of 21 million coins – is that it encourages users to save rather than spend. This may have fuelled boom and bust cycles in the past, with users hoarding coins – in hopes that coins will increase in value over time – only to cash out at key levels. Some have compared bitcoin to pyramid and Ponzi schemes, arguing that the system’s design has disproportionately rewarded users who got in early.

FAQs

Can I make money from the BTC halving?

Yes, it’s possible to make money from BTC halving. Historically, the price of bitcoin has risen significantly after halving events. So, buying and holding bitcoin (to sell at a later date) could be profitable. But, it’s important to note that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

What will BTC’s price be after the next halving?

Many have speculated that BTC’s price will rise in the weeks before and after the next halving event. This is in part because the halving is expected to draw increased attention to bitcoin, but also because it will reduce the supply of new coins entering circulation.

However, any price change will depend on how demand for bitcoin shapes up over the course of the halving. Nevertheless, despite precedent in the first four halvings, there’s no guarantee that the crypto’s price will rise.

How can I invest in the next bitcoin halving?

You can invest in bitcoin with us using a spot crypto account. It enables you to buy and hold coins. So, you’ll use it to take beneficial ownership of cryptocurrencies, with your coins held by our third-party partner Uphold. You’ll profit if you sell your coins when the price rises beyond your original buy price. If you sell them for a price that’s lower than the original buy price, you’ll incur a loss.

How do I reduce the risks of investing in bitcoin?

Like with any investment activity, there’s risk involved when buying and holding bitcoin. Ways in which you can reduce your investment risk include doing research to ensure that you understand how bitcoin works and how different factors could impact its market price.

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Important to know

The footer below includes standard risk disclosures and regulatory information applicable to IG’s broader range of investment services, including regulated financial instruments.

 

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