The rules historically obeyed by gold as to which direction the metal would head in appear to bear increasingly less relevance. The troubles in Syria briefly saw a flight to security by some investors; however, with the picture still far from clear, the effect looks to have already worn off. Markets’ reaction to countries in trouble – whether fiscal, political or military– have been increasingly muted as have they have become more common.
Looking at the performance of the gold price over the last 18 months, even with the impressive rally that it staged between the end of June and the beginning of September, it has still failed to break out of its downward trend. So what will shake it out? The threat of major military action on Europe’s doorstep came close but was not enough. Now that the German general election is out the way, some EU difficulties could come back onto the radar and provide a boost. It is almost certain that Greece will require bailout money in the next couple of months as it has failed to impose nearly enough austerity or GDP growth to appease the demands of the troika. Could this be the catalyst?