The next three days could see less directional influence over the Brent crude from Asia, as China starts a three-day bank holiday to celebrate the Dragon Boat Festival. Without Asia to set sentiment, responsibility now falls with either Europe or the US.
This weekend saw French president Francois Hollande stating that he felt that the eurozone crisis was now over. Certainly the confidence figures that came out of the eurozone in the first quarter suggested that it was making progress; however, the second quarter has failed to maintain that momentum. Without confidence that the eurozone economy is ready to recover, it is difficult to anticipate a catalyst that could push Brent crude through the current glass ceiling.
The more problematic oil-producing regions have had several calm months, passing this stagnation on to the markets. History would dictate that this is unlikely to last for too much longer before perception changes, but for the time being, with a steady supply and no struggling demand, we are not seeing too many factors to boost the price higher.