XRP rises towards key resistance as risk-on sentiment fuels rally

​​​XRP rises towards key resistance

​XRP is on track to deliver one of its strongest weekly performances in the past couple of weeks, but remains below key technical resistance. Nonetheless this week's rally has been notable not only for its magnitude but also for the speed with which sentiment shifted from cautious consolidation to aggressive upside momentum.

​A central catalyst behind the move has been renewed optimism around cryptocurrencies in general and regulatory clarity in the United States. Market participants reacted positively to fresh commentary and procedural developments linked to Ripple’s long-running legal overhang, with traders interpreting recent signals as reducing tail risk. Even incremental progress has tended to have an outsized impact on XRP, given how closely its valuation has historically been tied to legal uncertainty. This week’s developments revived the narrative that XRP could operate in a more clearly defined regulatory framework, unlocking broader institutional participation over time.

​Speculation around spot XRP exchange-traded products also intensified. Reports of continued engagement between asset managers and regulators, alongside renewed filings or amendments, reinforced the idea that XRP could eventually follow Bitcoin and Ether into a more structured exchange-traded fund (ETF) ecosystem. While no definitive approvals were announced, the mere perception that the process is advancing helped attract fresh capital. For a token where access channels have historically been constrained, the prospect of easier institutional exposure remains a powerful narrative driver.

​Flows reflected the shift in tone. XRP-linked investment products recorded their strongest inflow sessions in weeks, reversing a period of largely tactical allocation. While volumes remain smaller than those seen in Bitcoin vehicles, the directional change was important. The re-emergence of sustained buying interest, rather than short-lived dip accumulation, contributed to the rally’s persistence.

​Positioning dynamics amplified the move. In the lead-up to the breakout, derivatives data showed that open interest had been rebuilding gradually but without extreme funding levels. As XRP began to push towards near-term resistance, short positions were squeezed and stop-losses on the upside were triggered. The liquidation of bearish bets accelerated momentum, creating a feedback loop that lifted prices more rapidly than spot demand alone would likely have achieved. XRP’s historically high beta meant that once momentum took hold, price gains expanded quickly.

​On-chain metrics have also supported the strength. Large wallet accumulation increased in recent sessions, suggesting that some longer-term holders added exposure during the short-term bullish reversal rather than distributing into strength. Exchange balances did not spike materially, implying that the rally was not met with heavy profit-taking. While retail participation rose, the absence of disorderly selling helped sustain upward pressure.

​Broader ecosystem narratives provided additional underpinning. Ripple continued to highlight expansion in cross-border payments corridors and new integrations with financial institutions in emerging markets. While such developments are typically incremental rather than explosive catalysts, they reinforce the structural use case that differentiates XRP from purely speculative tokens. In a week where sentiment turned positive, these fundamentals offered reinforcement rather than resistance.

​Importantly, the rally in XRP has occurred alongside strength in Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, but with greater relative intensity than BTC. Historically, XRP tends to lag during early phases of broader market recoveries and then outperforms once confidence spreads. This week appears to follow that pattern, with capital rotating into higher-beta assets after initial strength in the larger cryptocurrencies.

​Despite the momentum, sustainability will depend on whether regulatory optimism translates into tangible milestones and whether inflows remain consistent. Funding rates, while elevated compared with earlier in the month, have not yet reached extremes, suggesting that leverage is building but not yet overheated. A continuation of balanced positioning could allow the rally to consolidate rather than immediately reverse.

​For now, XRP’s surge reflects a convergence of regulatory relief, ETF speculation and improved flows. The speed of the move underscores how quickly sentiment can reprice when a long-standing overhang begins to lift. Whether this marks the beginning of a more durable trend or a powerful short-covering rally will hinge on follow-through in both regulatory developments, sustained capital allocation and whether technical resistance levels can be overcome.

​XRP bullish case:

​If XRP were to see a rise above this year's downtrend line and this week's $1.4923 high, the late January low and 6 February high at $1.5082 - $1.5406 may be revisited. If overcome,  the 15 February high at $1.6698 may be reached as well. Slightly further up lies the 1 February high at $1.6778.

​XRP bearish case:

​While XRP remains below its 25 February high at $1.4923 on a daily chart closing basis, overall downside pressure may retain the upper hand with the mid-February to this week's lows at $1.3477 - $1.3125 low perhaps being revisited. Failure there may engage the early February trough at $1.1188.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 24 February low at $1.3125.

​Medium-term outlook:

Bearish while below the 15 February high at $1.6698, targeting the $1.3724 - $1.3125 support area.

XRP daily candlestick chart