US bank earnings preview: what to expect from Q2 2025 results

​​​US banking sector delivers exceptional performance

​American banks have demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth over recent years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The sector has weathered multiple economic storms whilst delivering substantial returns to shareholders through a combination of strategic positioning and operational excellence.

​Bank performance chart

Bank performance chart

​The financial institutions reporting earnings this week have navigated challenging periods including the 2020 pandemic disruption, subsequent inflation concerns, and various geopolitical tensions. Their ability to maintain profitability whilst managing risk has impressed analysts and investors alike.

​Major US banks have benefited from rising interest rates, which typically boost net interest margins and lending profitability. This environment has allowed institutions to expand their earnings whilst maintaining strong capital positions and continuing dividend payments to shareholders.

​The sector's outperformance relative to broader equity markets reflects investor confidence in banking fundamentals. Strong loan growth, disciplined risk management, and diversified revenue streams have positioned these institutions well for continued success in the current economic environment.

​Major US banks set to report earnings this week

​The week beginning 14 July 2025 marks a crucial period for US financial markets, with six major banks releasing their quarterly earnings results. These institutions collectively represent a significant portion of the American banking sector and their results often set the tone for broader market sentiment.

​The earnings season comes at a particularly interesting time for the banking sector. Interest rate expectations have shifted throughout 2025, creating both opportunities and challenges for these financial institutions as they navigate changing market conditions.

​Analysts will be closely watching for commentary on loan growth, net interest margins, and trading revenues. These metrics provide crucial insights into the health of the US economy and the banks' ability to generate profits in the current environment.

​JPMorgan Chase (15 July)

​JPMorgan Chase leads Tuesday's announcements as the nation's largest bank by assets. The institution faces expectations of solid earnings growth despite revenue headwinds, with analysts remaining optimistic about its long-term prospects and market-leading position.

​The bank's technology investments and capital discipline continue to earn praise from Wall Street analysts. However, some market watchers caution that investor sentiment may have become overly optimistic, potentially setting up disappointment if results fall short of elevated expectations.

​JPMorgan's trading division remains a key focus area, with volatile market conditions throughout 2025 creating both opportunities and challenges. The bank's ability to navigate these conditions whilst maintaining strong risk management practices will be closely scrutinised.

​Key stats:

• ​Expected earnings per share (EPS): $4.47 (+1.5% year-on-year (YoY))
• ​Projected revenue: $44.05 billion (-13.6% YoY)
• ​price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 13.7
• ​Dividend yield: 1.98%

 

​Wells Fargo (15 July)

​Wells Fargo is expected to deliver solid earnings growth when it reports on Tuesday, with the bank having demonstrated resilience in recent stress tests. The institution plans to increase its quarterly dividend, similar to its larger competitors.

​The bank's focus on operational efficiency and cost management has impressed analysts throughout 2025. Wells Fargo's ability to maintain strong net interest margins whilst managing credit quality will be key themes for investors to monitor.

​Regional banking exposure provides Wells Fargo with different dynamics compared to its money-centre peers. The bank's commercial lending portfolio and mortgage business continue to be important revenue drivers in the current environment.

​Key stats:

• ​Expected EPS: $1.41 (+6% YoY) 
• ​Projected revenue: $20.75 billion (+0.3% YoY) 
• ​P/E ratio: 14.9 
• ​Dividend yield: 1.96% 

 

Citigroup (15 July)

​Citigroup presents a compelling transformation story, with the bank having recently streamlined its operations to focus on five core divisions. The institution exited 14 consumer markets as part of this restructuring, which analysts believe positions it well for future growth.

​The bank's institutional client business remains a key strength, with corporate banking and investment banking revenues closely watched by analysts. Citigroup's global footprint provides diversification benefits but also exposes it to various international economic conditions.

​Several analysts have raised their target prices recently, reflecting growing confidence in the bank's strategic direction and operational improvements. The market will be looking for evidence that the restructuring is delivering tangible benefits to profitability.

​Key stats:

• ​Expected EPS: $1.61 (+4.5% YoY)
• ​Projected revenue: $20.94 billion (+4% YoY)
• ​P/E ratio: 13.5
• ​Dividend yield: 2.61% 

 

​Goldman Sachs (16 July)

​Goldman Sachs is set to report strong earnings growth on Wednesday, with the investment bank facing particular scrutiny regarding its merger and acquisition outlook. Deal activity has been volatile throughout 2025, making guidance particularly important for investors.

​Asset management performance will also be under the microscope, as this division has become increasingly important to Goldman's overall earnings stability. The bank's wealth management expansion continues to provide more stable revenue streams alongside its traditional trading operations.

​Any guidance on future M&A activity could significantly influence market sentiment around the stock. Goldman's trading revenues remain subject to market volatility, making diversification efforts particularly important for long-term stability.

​Key stats: 

• ​Expected EPS: $9.73 (+12.7% YoY)
• ​Projected revenue: $13.48 billion (-0.4% YoY)
• ​P/E ratio: 16.1
• ​Dividend yield: 1.72% 

 

​Morgan Stanley (16 July)

​Morgan Stanley, the wealth management specialist, is expected to face some earnings headwinds. Despite projected declines, several analysts have upgraded the stock, citing the firm's superior business model and long-term structural advantages.

​The bank's wealth management franchise continues to attract positive attention from investors seeking stable revenue streams. Morgan Stanley's focus on advisory services and fee-based income provides some insulation from interest rate volatility affecting other banks.

​Market conditions for investment banking and trading have been challenging, which may impact overall results. However, the bank's diversified revenue base and strong client relationships position it well for long-term success in changing market conditions.

​Key stats:

• ​Expected EPS: $1.96 (-5.3% YoY)
• ​Projected revenue: $15.99 billion (-1.1% YoY)
• ​P/E ratio: 16.6
• ​Dividend yield: 2.61%

 

​Bank of America (16 July)

​Bank of America is expected to deliver modest earnings growth YoY. The institution recently announced plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 8% following favourable Federal Reserve (Fed) stress test outcomes.

​Analysts project continued earnings growth for 2025 and 2026, suggesting confidence in the bank's trajectory. The bank's large deposit base and retail banking franchise provide stable revenue streams in various market conditions.

​Bank of America's consumer banking division and credit card business remain key focus areas for investors. The bank's ability to manage credit quality whilst growing its loan portfolio will be closely watched by analysts and investors alike.

​Key stats:

• ​Expected EPS: $0.85 (+2.5% YoY)
• ​Projected revenue: $26.67 billion (-0.8% YoY)
• ​P/E ratio: 13.8
• ​Dividend yield: 2.22%