US bank earnings: what to expect from Q2 2026
JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Q2 results on 14 July. Here is what to watch.
When do US banks report Q2 earnings?
The four big US lenders open the Q2 reporting season on 14 July. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report before the US market opens, and traders will treat the numbers as a read on the wider earnings season.
Banks are cyclical businesses, so the results carry weight beyond the sector itself. When lenders sound confident on loan demand and credit quality, it usually says something reassuring about the broader economy.
This year the group has had a decent run, if not a spectacular one. Some of the geopolitical risks that hung over the sector earlier have eased, and that easing has fed through to share prices and analyst estimates alike.
Total Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to rise 23.9% on 11.7% higher revenues, up from an 18% growth estimate at the start of April. The banks sit at the front of that queue, so their tone matters.
What the numbers say
JPMorgan is forecast to report adjusted earnings of $5.62 per share on revenue of $49.5 billion, with the consensus EPS estimate revised up 3.7% over the past four weeks. The bank has beaten on earnings in each of its last eight quarters, and shares sit near $338 against an average analyst target of $350.
Bank of America is expected to earn $1.12 per share on $30.7 billion in revenue, with year-on-year growth of around 25% and an estimate lifted 2.2% over the past month. Like JPMorgan, it has beaten on earnings eight quarters running, with shares near $60 and a target of $64.
Citigroup and Wells Fargo report the same day. Consensus points to modestly higher Q2 estimates at Citi over the past three months, while Wells Fargo estimates have been trimmed by around 1%, reflecting some margin pressure as it pivots towards expansion.
Across the investment banks and managers group, Q2 earnings are expected to grow 10.4% on 10.7% higher revenues. Most of that comes from core banking and trading, with investment banking broadly stable rather than booming.
The trading and credit picture
Trading desks look to have had a solid quarter, with mid-quarter updates pointing to revenue growth in the 10% to 15% range. That has been a reliable earner for the larger banks and should support the headline numbers again.
On the deal side, the story is more mixed. Equity capital markets activity has been healthy, helped by a livelier pipeline of listings, but merger and acquisition work has stayed underwhelming as geopolitical uncertainty lingers.
Credit quality remains benign. Household and commercial delinquencies, bankruptcies and debt-service metrics have all behaved, which removes one of the usual worries hanging over bank earnings.
The area drawing more scrutiny is private-credit exposure. The space has been in the spotlight for its links to the software and data-centre industries, and investors will want reassurance that the banks are not overextended there.
Do bank shares still look cheap?
The sector has performed well. The KBW Bank Index is up around 12% year to date, ahead of the S&P 500, while smaller regional lenders tracked by the KBW Regional Banking Index have climbed roughly 19% as money rotated out of AI-driven technology names.
Regional peers such as Fifth Third and Citizens have led the way, both up more than 20%, helped by improving loan growth and steady asset quality. Among the money-centre banks, Citi has fared best as confidence in its profitability builds.
The laggards tell their own story. Capital One has slipped as it digests the Discover and Brex deals, Wells Fargo has trailed on margin contraction, and even JPMorgan has lagged the wider rally despite its bellwether status.
On valuation, banks trade at around 12 times earnings against 22 times for the S&P 500. Consensus points to 11% earnings growth for the sector in 2026, so the discount does not look stretched, though a cheap multiple is never a guarantee of anything on its own.
Bull and bear cases
For the bulls, the setup is straightforward: accelerating loan growth, resilient credit, robust trading revenue and higher capital returns, all available at a valuation well below the index. Rising estimates suggest analysts are warming to the story rather than cooling on it.
The bears will point to a flatter yield curve squeezing margins, sluggish M&A, and the private-credit question mark. Wells Fargo's trimmed estimates are a reminder that not every lender is pulling in the same direction.
The most likely outcome is that the results confirm the constructive trend rather than upend it. Banks have beaten expectations consistently, and the revisions trend is pointing the right way into the print.
Either way, the 14 July numbers should set the tone for the rest of the season, given the sector is the second-largest earnings contributor to the S&P 500 behind technology.
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