Trade of the week: long gold

(Partial video transcript)

This week's trading opportunity

Axel Rudolph: Hello and welcome to "Trade of the week" on the last day of 30 June, 2025. And I'm going to talk about gold. Why do I want to look at gold? Because I do think, and I might be completely wrong here, that we've seen a corrective move in gold coming down from the mid-June highs. It's a, sort of, zigzag correction, a three wave correction down here. And basically, we have held above the previous low from late May, which comes in at $3,245.00 per troy ounce on this Daily Financial Bet (DFB).

So, because I believe that to be corrective, it is possible that now that we've seen this bullish candle forming. I mean, it hasn't formed yet, we haven't seen a close today. But I do think that we will see a close here above Sunday high and also above the lows seen on Friday. So, for that reason I think we could go long gold here from a technical perspective, if you believe this to be a correction that has now held above the previous support and that, basically, would be my Trade of the week.

Previous weeks' trading outcomes

I'd now like to talk about last week's "Trade of the week", which was to go short USD/JPY. And what we did there is just follow the trend. And you can see, we were heading up and everybody was looking towards for an upside. And I said we should perhaps go short around ¥147.50 to ¥148.00. The high was made literally at ¥148.00 and then we came all the way down again.

Why did I do that? Because we were approaching previous resistance, as I showed you. We were still in a downtrend and also, fundamentally, I still expected the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike its rates and the Fed to cut its rates. And this is basically what the markets are now thinking as well, because we've come off all the way from that area around ¥148.00 down to, at the moment, ¥144.00. If you want to, you can cash in your profits here, or you can let it run down towards the ¥140.00 area, which is my longer term target.

Either way, what I would do personally, but obviously I'm not giving any advice here, is move my stop-loss to my entry level. So basically, when short at ¥148.00, move your stop down to that level so it's, in theory, a free trade and you're not risking anything on that position anymore. So, that's what I would do.

And then also I wanted to mention that we went long Cable (GBP/USD), you may remember, on the 19th May. So all the way down here, back here when we broke through this resistance line and we had an upside target of $1.4850. It didn't do much for quite a while, but now we've got another nice upswing. But that is starting to lose upside momentum, so maybe it's a good idea to, sort of, cash in your profits around $1.37.

Because, after all, we went long, I believe around $1.33-something. So, that's not a bad trade at all. And we did come quite close to getting stopped out at our entry level, but in the end that didn't really happen.

This week's trade in summary

Coming back to this week's Trade of the week, we will go long gold, with a stop stop-loss below the 29th May low at $3,245.00 per troy ounce and an upside target around the $3,400.00 to $3,450.00 area.