ASOS (full-year results 17 October)
GBP’s weakness continues to drive performance at ASOS, which reported international growth of 54% back in April when it unveiled interim results. Smaller rivals such as boohoo.com have yet to make much of a dent in the alternative investment market (AIM) titan, and with sales guidance increased to a 30-35% range, more good new appears to be on the way. New investment, such as a second distribution hub in Europe, and a variety of website and logistic improvements are matched by technology upgrades designed not just to improve the shopping experience, but also to increase the average spend per customer. At 119 times current earnings there isn’t much room for disappointment, however, any earnings missed or a cautious outlook could prompt a period of heightened volatility.
The steady rise in ASOS since 2015 has seen the shares recover much lost-ground, but the sequence of higher highs and higher lows has been disrupted, with the price faltering and heading below £60.00. A downtrend from the May high continues to hamper progress, and we would need to see a break above £61.00 to be sure that the rally is back on in earnest. A drop back would encounter support at the rising trendline from the 2016 low, and it would require a daily close below the September low of £55.15 to confirm that a bearish move is underway.