S&P 500 trades in record highs while EUR/GBP bounces off support and silver drops

Macro update

Global equities mixed as investors await macro catalysts: Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached another record high following gains in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, though broader Asian markets traded unevenly overnight while US futures were little changed ahead of key economic data releases.

Oil prices remain firm amid supply and geopolitical risks: Crude prices stayed relatively supported as traders continued to monitor Middle East tensions and broader concerns around global supply disruption.

Bond markets steady as rate expectations adjust: Government bond yields moved modestly as investors reassessed the timing and magnitude of future central bank easing cycles.

Dollar stable while yen remains under pressure: The US dollar traded within tight ranges against major peers, while the yen stayed weak amid persistent policy divergence and elevated global yields.

China data points to industrial stabilisation: Recent producer price data and activity indicators suggest improving momentum in parts of China’s manufacturing sector, supported by an AI-driven surge in industrial profits.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps rates unchanged: The RBNZ left rates on hold at 2.25% but signalled that higher oil-driven inflation pressures could lead to earlier and larger rate hikes than previously expected despite the still-fragile economic recovery.

S&P 500 trades in record highs

This week the S&P 500overcame last week's 7,517 record high and made a fresh high at 7,539.

Above this level a 161.8% Fibonacci extension may be found at 7,722. It represents another potential upside target.

The March-to-May uptrend line at 7,445 may offer support, as may the 11 May high at 7,429.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 May low at 7,334

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 23 April low at 7,047

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP bounces off support

EUR/GBP for the fourth time in as many months bounced off its £0.8620-to-£0.8612 support zone which has held since February. While it continues to do so, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8669 and the 23 March high at £0.8679 may be reached.

Further up beckon the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8701 and the current May peak at £0.8730.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 19 March £0.8612 low

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while trading between its March £0.8612-to-£0.8789 extremes

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver remains under pressure

The Silver price seems to resume its recent descent, having topped out at $78.8260 on Monday.

It is currently slipping towards last week's low at $73.0919, a fall through which may engage the 4 May low at $72.2045 and also the late April trough at $70.8656.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 19 May high at $78.8949

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 13 May high at $89.3797 but above the 29 April low at $70.8656

Sliver daily candlestick chart