S&P 500 resumes its ascent as EUR/GBP, silver price hover above support

Macro update

Asian equities cap a record-breaking quarter: Japan's Nikkei was on course for its strongest quarterly gain since 1965, rising more than 38%, while South Korea's KOSPI looked set to deliver a near 71% advance, led by robust gains in semiconductor stocks.

Yen falls to a 40-year low: The widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, alongside increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, pushed the dollar to ¥162.41, prompting Japan's finance minister to reiterate that authorities remain prepared to intervene in currency markets.

Oil prices continue to retreat from conflict-driven highs: Brent crude eased towards $72 a barrel, close to pre-conflict levels, as investors priced in the prospect of de-escalation ahead of potential US-Iran talks in Doha, despite renewed missile exchanges over the weekend testing the ceasefire.

Wall Street reaches fresh record highs: The Dow Jones closed at a new all-time high, while the Nasdaq gained more than 2%, supported by strength in technology stocks, including SpaceX's debut in the Nasdaq 100 and Alphabet's first trading session as a Dow constituent.

Dollar heads for a fourth consecutive quarterly gain: Investors continued to build bullish positions on the US dollar throughout the first half of the year, although BlackRock strategists warned that much of the currency's strength is already reflected in current valuations.

Foreign investors scale back exposure to Asia's technology rally: Around $17.3 billion has flowed out of South Korean equities this year as portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking offset the region's strong performance, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng underperformed with a 7.5% decline over the quarter.

S&P 500 resumes ascent

The S&P 500's recovery from Friday's 7,294 low has so far taken it to Monday's 7,444 high, a move above which would push the 9 June high at 7,483 and the mid-May peak at 7,517 to the fore. Together with the 22 June 7,530 peak these highs may act as resistance, though.

Below last week's low at 7,294 lies the 9 June trough at 7,238.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 26 June low at 7,294

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 7,238

S&P500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP hovers above key support

EUR/GBP remains under pressure but so far manages to hold above last week's ten month low at £0.8603. Failure there would probably lead to the August 2025 low at £0.8597 being reached. Further down lies the 23 June 2025 high at £0.8575 which may also offer support.

Minor resistance sits in the £0.8620-to-£0.8632 region and more significant resistance at £0.8651-to-£0.8656.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 26 June high at £0.8651

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while trading between its August 2025 to June 2026 £0.8597-to-£0.8789 boundaries

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver price tries to stabilise above key support

The price of Silver has so far managed to hold above last week's $55.5967 low, a fall through which may provoke a further descent towards the mid-October 2025 high at $54.4852, though. Together with the mid-November 2025 high at $54.3935 it may act as support.

Initial resistance may be spotted between the 12 December 2025 low at $60.7996 and the 23 March low at $61.0065. Further minor resistance lies at the 11 June trough at $61.5050.

Short-term outlook: neutral while above the 24 June low at $55.5967

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 17 June high at $71.5641

Sliver daily candlestick chart