S&P 500, EUR/GBP and silver price rise at start of week

Macro update

Nikkei breaks above 72,000 for the first time: Japan's benchmark index reached a record intraday high above 72,200 as enthusiasm surrounding AI-related investment continued to drive markets higher, supported by government plans for approximately ¥370 trillion of public and private spending on AI and semiconductor development by 2040.

Brent crude declines as US-Iran negotiations make progress: Oil prices moved lower after Iran announced it had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, as well as access to some frozen assets, raising expectations that sanctions relief could eventually bring up to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude back to global markets.

Dollar remains firm amid optimism over a US-Iran agreement: The greenback held steady as mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed a roadmap towards a final settlement within 60 days, including measures to end hostilities in Lebanon and safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Yen remains under pressure near multi-decade lows: USD/JPY traded around 161.67, close to its weakest levels in decades, with investors continuing to focus on the wide interest rate gap between a hawkish Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Sterling weakens amid political uncertainty in Westminster: The pound slipped to around $1.3200 after Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced renewed political scrutiny following Andy Burnham's strong by-election victory, although analysts suggested any impact on fiscal policy expectations would likely be limited.

US Treasury yields continue to climb: Two-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since early 2025 at 4.23%, with markets now pricing around 43 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening this year and fully discounting a 25-basis-point rate increase by September.

S&P 500 remains close to record highs

The S&P 500's swift recovery from last week's 7,403 low has so far taken it to Thursday's 7,511 high, a rise above which would lead to last week's peak at 7,578 being in sight. Further up sit the early June record high at 7,620 and a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 7,722.

A slip through last week's low at 7,403 may provoke a retest of the March-to-June uptrend line at 7,352.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 17 June low at 7,403

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 7,238

S&P500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP rallies

EUR/GBP is seeing another swift rally which has so far taken it to a one-month high at £0.8690. Further up meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8700 and sits the May peak at £0.8730, both of which represent potential upside targets.

Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8662 may be found around the 4 June high at £0.8656.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 March £0.8612 low

Medium-term outlook: neutral while trading between its March £0.8612-to-£0.8789 extremes

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver price tries to regain recently lost ground

The Silver price is expected to recover further from last week's $63.2870 low towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $69.0848 and its May-to-June resistance line at $69.2885. Further up potentially beckons last week's high at $71.5641.

Support below last week's low at $63.2870 lies at the 11 June trough at $61.5050.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 19 June low at $63.2870

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish undertone while above the March $61.0065 low but below the 19 May high at $78.8949

Sliver daily candlestick chart