Skip to content

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Risk Event for the week starting 4 September: RBA rate decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold at its next meeting.

Video poster image

Given this, and the more hawkish European Central Bank, Zain Vawda, FX analyst at Daily FX, looks at a potential deeper retracement for EUR/AUD from which to go long going into the rate announcement.

(Video Transcript)

The Reserve Bank of Australia

Let's take a look at the risk event for the week, starting Monday the 4th of September. And for this, we're joined by Zain Vawda, who's joined us now from Johannesburg, New Zealand. Zain, what have you got for us? Let us know more about the trade you're looking at. Hi, Jeremy. Thank you for having me, sir. The risk event I will be focused on in the week ahead will be the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision with a potential long position on the EUR/AUD.

Now, obviously, looking at the Reserve Bank of Australia interest (RBA)'s position heading into the meeting, and we have obviously seen significant progress on the inflation front with the recent inflation trend coming in below the 5% mark for the first time since the highs of December 2022. Now, obviously, that coupled with a slight increase in unemployment, as well as the current situation in China, I do expect the RBA to keep rates on hold at the upcoming meeting.

The European Central Bank

Now, in contrast, if we look at the European Central Bank (ECB)'s position, yesterday we did have ECB and Euro area inflation data. And obviously, we saw a slight uptick there in terms of the headlining figure, as well as the month-on-month figure, even though we saw a slight drop-off in the core inflation number. Now, that also, we did hear some comments from ECB members who do feel that they are approaching the peak rate. However, they're not here yet.

EUR/AUD

So, I do think that we still will get at least one more rate hike from the ECB before the year is out. And obviously, looking at that picture on the macro side, I do think that there is still potential upside for EUR/AUD looking ahead. So, I mean, if we can take a look quickly at the chart and see what the technicals are telling us. I mean, if we look at the technicals here, we can see that we have been, you know, staircasing our way higher since the lows of August 2022, and, you know, making higher highs and higher lows up until two weeks ago when we reached the year-to-date high around the 170-60 mark.

RBA rate decision

Now, obviously, since then, we are seeing a slight replacement here, which is something I actually prefer. I am looking for a bit of a deeper replacement next week ahead of that RBA decision, and potentially looking at that 50% Fib replacement level, or potentially a bounce off that ascending trend line again, which would obviously provide the best risk-to-reward opportunity for potential longs.

Now, obviously, having said that, like I say, I do think this is a really interesting opportunity. I would be looking for fresh highs in weeks, and obviously, this is what I will be focused on in the week ahead. Sam, thanks very much indeed. That's Risk Advice for the week, starting Monday, the 4th of September.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Start trading forex today

Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market.

  • Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse with clear, fast charts
  • Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps

See an FX opportunity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Equities
  • Indices
  • Forex
  • Commodities
website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

" >


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.