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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Rio Tinto share price testing support after operational update

Rio Tinto Q3 production mostly flat, although copper output has gained.

Source: Bloomberg

Rio Tinto operational review

Rio Tinto, the UK based mining and metals company has released an operation update for the fiscal quarter and nine months ending September 2022.

Salient feature of the update are as follows:

  • Pilbara iron ore shipments down 1% against Q3 and 9 months 2021 comparisons

  • Pilbara iron ore production up 1% against Q3 2021 and 0% vs 9 month 2021 comparisons

  • Bauxite production down 2% against Q3 2021 and up 1% vs 9 month 2021 comparisons

  • Aluminium production down 2% against Q3 2021 and 7% vs 9 month 2021 comparisons

  • Mined copper production up 10% against Q3 2021 and 8% vs 9 month 2021 comparisons

  • IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate production up 28% against Q3 2021 and 8% vs 9 month 2021 comparisons

Forward guidance

Full year production guidance for bauxite, alumina, aluminium, mined copper, diamonds, iron ore pellets and concentrates remain unchanged.

Plibara iron ore shipments are now expected to err towards the lower end of the 320 to 335 previously guided range.

Refined copper production guidance has been lowered to between 190 to 220 from 230 to 290.

Broker ratings and price targets

Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv

Data compiled from Refinitiv Workspace shows the consensus of 25 broker ratings on Rio Tinto to be a hold as of the 19th October 2022.

The long term price target mean of GBP55.97 suggests the current price of the share to be at a 19% discount to what is considered a longer term fair value for the company.

Client sentiment

Source: IG
Source: IG

As of the 19th October 2022, 92% of IG clients with open positions on Rio Tinto expect the price to rise in the near term while 8% expect the price to fall in the near term.

Rio Tinto- Technical View

Source: IG Charts
Source: IG Charts

The share price of Rio Tinto currently trades in a broad range between levels 4420 (support) and 5150 (resistance).

The price is now moving towards tentative trend line support (dotted trend line), a break of which (confirmed with a close below) would suggest 4550 and 4420 as respective downside support targets.

Due to the share price being in a broad rangebound environment and trading closer towards historical support levels, our preference is to wait to enter new long positions on the stock.

Before finding long entry, we would like to see a bullish price reversal at one of our support levels (trend line, 4550 or 4420). In this scenario, the reversal low could be used as a stop loss indication, while targeting a move back towards the 5150-resistance level.

In summary:

  • Full year production guidance for most of the group’s commodities remain unchanged
  • Plibara iron ore shipments are now expected to err towards the lower end of the 320 to 335 previously guided range.
  • Refined copper production guidance has been lowered to between 190 to 220 from 230 to 290.
  • The average broker rating on the stock is ‘hold’
  • Most IG clients with open positions on the stock expect the price to rise in the near term
  • The price is currently testing support while in a rangebound environment

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

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