Skip to content

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Oil market outlook 2025: what to expect for crude prices​

Global oil markets face potential oversupply in 2025 as non-OPEC+ production grows. Here's what traders need to know about price forecasts and market dynamics.

Oil Source: Adobe images

Supply and demand outlook for 2025

​The International Energy Agency projects global oil supply will exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day in 2025. This forecast assumes OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts throughout the period.

​Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the United States, Canada, and Guyana, are expected to drive the surplus through increased production. This additional output could challenge OPEC+'s ability to maintain market balance.

​The post-covid-19 pandemic demand rebound has largely played out, with growth rates expected to moderate. China's economic slowdown remains a key concern for demand projections, potentially limiting upside pressure on prices.

​Economic headwinds in major economies could further impact consumption patterns, with the transition to cleaner energy technologies also affecting demand growth rates in developed markets.

Price forecasts and market expectations

​Major investment banks have provided conservative price outlooks for 2025. Trading commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast Brent crude oil averaging $76.00 per barrel.

​J.P. Morgan takes a more bearish stance, projecting Brent at $73.00 per barrel and WTI at $64.00. These forecasts reflect expectations of ample market supply and moderate demand growth.

​The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates increasing global inventories will pressure prices. Their analysis suggests Brent could average $74.00 per barrel in the latter half of 2025.

​These projections indicate a relatively stable price environment, though geopolitical events and OPEC+ decisions could create significant volatility.

Impact on energy trading strategies

Oil trading strategies in 2025 will need to account for potential supply surpluses and price pressures. Risk management becomes crucial in this environment.

​Traders should monitor OPEC+ compliance with production agreements, as any breakdown in unity could accelerate price declines. The group's response to market oversupply will be critical.

​Technical analysis of key support and resistance levels will help identify entry and exit points. The $70.00-80.00 range for Brent crude appears significant based on current forecasts.

Commodity trading platforms offer various tools to manage exposure to oil price movements, including stop losses and limit orders.

Key factors to watch

​Geopolitical developments remain crucial for oil markets. U.S. energy policy changes could significantly impact global supply dynamics and price movements.

​Chinese demand growth will be essential for market balance. Any significant economic stimulus measures could boost consumption and support prices.

​The pace of energy transition and electric vehicle adoption could affect demand projections. However, the impact may be limited in the 2025 timeframe.

Trading signals and market indicators will help traders navigate these complex dynamics.

How to trade oil markets in 2025

How to trade oil successfully requires understanding both technical and fundamental factors. Start by thoroughly researching market conditions.

​Consider whether you want to trade oil through spread betting or CFD trading. Both offer ways to profit from rising or falling prices.

​Use technical analysis tools and economic calendars to time your trades. Keep updated with OPEC+ meetings and major economic data releases.

​Open a demo account to practice your trading strategy without risking real capital.

Risk management considerations

​Always use stop loss orders to protect against adverse price movements. The oil market's volatility requires careful position sizing.

​Consider using trading alerts to stay informed of significant price movements and market developments.

​Diversification across different energy markets can help manage risk. Don't concentrate all positions in a single commodity.

​Keep abreast of market news and analyst reports to adjust your strategy as conditions change.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

React to volatility on commodity markets

Trade commodity futures, as well as 27 commodity markets with no fixed expiries.1

  • Wide range of popular and niche metals, energies and softs
  • Spreads from 0.3 pts on Spot Gold, 2 pts on Spot Silver and 2.8 pts on Oil
  • View continuous charting, backdated for up to five years

1In the case of all DFBs, there is a fixed expiry at some point in the future.

See opportunity on a commodity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Try a risk-free trade
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • Get spreads from just 0.3 points on Spot Gold
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Equities
  • Indices
  • Forex
  • Commodities


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.