Ocado H1 2026 preview: investors look for retail momentum to offset technology questions

Investors look for retail momentum to offset technology questions

Ocado is due to report its interim results on 16 July, with investors set to focus on whether continued growth in its UK retail joint venture can outweigh ongoing questions surrounding the pace of its technology business expansion.

For the full year to November 2026 analysts expect a 9.5% rise in revenue to £1.49 billion and an approximate 12% decline in pre-tax losses to £219.57 million.

The online grocery and warehouse automation specialist enters the results having seen a 27% decline in its share price this year to date, despite improving retail performance and renewed optimism that higher-margin technology revenues could begin to accelerate. However, investors remain keen for evidence that Ocado's Solutions division is winning new international customers after a prolonged period of slower deal activity.

Retail expected to remain the bright spot

Ocado Retail, the company's 50:50 joint venture with Marks & Spencer, has continued to outperform the broader UK grocery market.

The UK retail joint venture enters the first-half results after delivering double-digit revenue growth in FY25, driven by higher active customer numbers and increased order volumes. Investors will now be looking for evidence that this momentum has continued into FY26.

Investors will be looking for another period of market share gains alongside updates on average orders per week, active customers and average basket values, all of which have become key indicators of consumer demand.

Technology division remains under scrutiny

While the retail business has delivered consistent progress, attention is likely to centre on Ocado Solutions.

The technology arm designs and operates highly automated fulfilment centres for grocery retailers around the world and remains central to the company's long-term investment case. However, the pace of signing new international partners has slowed over the past two years as many supermarkets have delayed large capital expenditure projects amid higher interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Any update regarding discussions with prospective customers, additional customer fulfilment centres (CFCs), or expansion plans with existing partners could have a significant impact on investor sentiment.

Management is also expected to provide an update on the rollout of its latest robotic technologies and artificial intelligence initiatives aimed at improving warehouse productivity and lowering fulfilment costs.

For those looking to gain exposure to Ocado ahead of the results, you can buy shares through IG Invest or our share dealing service.

Cash flow and profitability remain key themes

Although Ocado has made significant progress in reducing losses over recent years, investors continue to focus on the path towards sustainable positive cash generation.

The company has been working to improve operating leverage by increasing throughput at existing fulfilment centres while reducing capital expenditure following several years of heavy investment.

Markets will closely examine adjusted EBITDA performance, free cash flow, capital expenditure and any changes to management's profitability guidance for the remainder of the financial year.

Competitive landscape

The UK grocery sector remains intensely competitive, with supermarkets continuing to invest heavily in pricing while expanding their online offerings.

Despite this, Ocado Retail has continued to benefit from demand for premium groceries and larger online baskets, helped by its exclusive partnership with Marks & Spencer. Investors will want reassurance that consumer spending has remained resilient despite ongoing pressure on household budgets.

Meanwhile, improving inflation dynamics and easing supply chain pressures could provide a more supportive backdrop for both the retail and technology businesses during the second half of the year.

Those who want to trade around the results rather than invest can do so through spread betting or CFD trading, both of which allow you to go long or short on Ocado shares.

What investors will watch on 16 July

Key areas of focus include:

• Revenue growth across both Ocado Retail and Ocado Solutions
• Active customer numbers and weekly order growth
• Progress towards higher profitability and positive free cash flow
• New technology partnerships or customer fulfilment centre announcements
• Updates on warehouse automation and AI initiatives
• Full-year guidance for revenue, EBITDA and capital expenditure

While Ocado Retail continues to demonstrate encouraging operational momentum, the company's valuation still depends heavily on the long-term growth potential of its technology platform. As a result, investors will likely judge the interim results not only on near-term earnings but also on management's confidence that demand for automated grocery fulfilment is beginning to recover.

With the shares remaining highly sensitive to news flow, any indication of accelerating Solutions revenues or new customer wins could provide the next catalyst for the stock during the second half of 2026.

Ocado analyst ratings and technical analysis of its share price

Analyst sentiment towards Ocado remains mixed. According to LSEG Data & Analytics, three analysts rate the stock as a 'strong buy', four as a 'buy', four as a 'hold', while two have a 'sell' rating and one recommends 'strong sell'. The mean consensus 12-month price target stands at 258.27p, around 51% above the current share price (as of 10 July 2026).

LSEG Data & Analytics

Market sentiment is similarly cautious on TipRanks, which assigns Ocado an overall rating of '4 Neutral' alongside a 'buy' recommendation.

The cautious outlook is reflected in the share price performance. Ocado shares have practically given back all of their near 70% December 2025-to-January 2026 gains and are trading back at levels seen towards the end of last year, marginally above the June 2026 low at 165.7 pence – a 13-year low. This level will remain in sight as long as no bullish reversal takes the Ocado share price above its early July 189.5p high.

Ocado daily candlestick chart

A fall through the June trough at 165.7p - which sits marginally below the November-to-December 2025 lows at 167.5p-to-165.9p - and weekly chart close below this potential support would lead to levels last seen in May 2013 being traded. In this scenario the area between the March 2012 high and the October 2010 low at 134.1p-to-120.9p may be revisited.

Ocado monthly candlestick chart

Only a bullish reversal and monthly chart close above the May 2026 peak at 240.0p may point to a longer term bottom being formed.

How to invest in Ocado shares

1. Do your research on Ocado and the key themes ahead of the interim results on 16 July
2. Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account with us
3. Search for Ocado (OCDO) in our platform or app
4. Choose the number of shares or value of money you'd like to invest
5. Place your trade