​Nasdaq 100 recovers as USD/JPY probes key resistance amid oil price spike

​​​Macro update

​Oil tops $95 after attacks on Gulf shipping:

Brent crude oil surged about 8% to around $95 a barrel after Iranian strikes on vessels and disruption at Iraqi export terminals heightened fears of a major supply shock.

​Asian equities retreat as risk sentiment weakens:

MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan fell roughly 1.6%, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng losing about 1.2%, while US and European futures also signalled further declines.

​Strategic reserve release fails to soothe markets:

The International Energy Agency announced a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 172 million from the US, but traders remained focused on escalating conflict and shipping disruptions.

​Inflation concerns lift bond yields:

Higher energy prices pushed US 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.25% as investors worried that oil-driven inflation could keep global borrowing costs elevated.

​Rate-cut expectations scaled back:

Markets reduced expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year, while traders began factoring in the possibility that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise rates as early as June.

​Dollar firms as energy importers’ currencies weaken:

The US dollar remained near 2026 highs as the euro, Japanese yen and sterling slipped, reflecting concerns that higher oil prices will weigh more heavily on energy-importing economies.

​Nasdaq 100 recovers

​The Nasdaq 100 is expected to revisit its January to March downtrend line at 25,134, a rise above which and Tuesday's high at 25,189 would put the 11 to 25 February highs at 25,343 - 25,382 on the map.

​Minor support may be found at Wednesday's 24,857 low.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 11 March 24,857 low.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral while above the 9 March low at 24,289; failure there would turn the forecast bearish.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

​USD/JPY puts pressure on resistance zone

​USD/JPY's advance has taken it to its 23 January ¥159.22 high which, together with the ¥159.45 mid-January peak, is acting as resistance.

​Were the resistance zone to be breached, the psychological ¥160.00 region with the ¥160.16 - ¥160.21 April 1990 to April 2024 highs may be reached.

​Support may be found between the February, 3 and 6 of March highs and along the February to March uptrend line at ¥158.10 - ¥157.72.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 10 March ¥157.28 low.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 5 March low at ¥156.46.

​USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

​Brent gaps higher

Brent crude oil saw another spike, this time by around 8% to $98.49 per barrel, amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions. While no rise above Thursday's high is seen, though, a retracement to Wednesday's high at $91.58 may ensue. Support sits between this level and the 6 and 10 March highs.

​Were a rise above $98.49 to be seen, the 11 May 2022 low at $100.68 would be eyed and perhaps also the area between the February 2022 high and the March 2022 low.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 10 March $79.74 low.

​Medium-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 10 March low at $79.74.

Brent crude oil daily candlestick chart