Nasdaq 100 hits fresh record despite Brent rising for third straight day as USD/JPY hits Y160
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it trades in fresh record highs despite Brent crude rising for a third straight day while USD/JPY flirts with the Y160 region.
Macro update
Oil extends gains for a third consecutive session: Brent crude climbed over 2% to $97.00 a barrel as renewed tensions in the Gulf added to the lack of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations, with recent Iranian missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait either intercepted or missing their targets.
Dollar approaches key intervention level against the yen: The US dollar briefly touched the ¥160 mark before retreating as traders grew cautious about the prospect of Japanese currency intervention, while markets continue to price in a roughly 75% chance of a Bank of Japan rate increase in June.
AI-driven rally lifts Asian markets to fresh records: Japan’s Nikkei 225 surpassed the 68,000 level for the first time, advancing 2.2%, while Taiwan’s market also reached a record high as semiconductor heavyweights Tokyo Electron and Advantest provided a significant boost to gains.
Marvell jumps after praise from Nvidia chief: Shares in Marvell Technology surged 32.5% to an all-time high after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the company as a potential trillion-dollar business, fuelling renewed enthusiasm across the AI sector.
Cryptocurrency markets remain under pressure: Bitcoin slid almost 10% over three sessions to a two-month low of $65.371, amid selling linked to Strategy and speculation that investors are raising cash ahead of potential market turbulence.
US labour market data takes centre stage: Job openings posted their largest increase in five years during April, with investors now awaiting private payrolls and ISM services data ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
Nasdaq 100 trades in record highs
The Nasdaq 100 continues its ascent towards the 100% extension of the April-to-October 2025 advance, projected higher from the March 2026 low, at 32,481.
Potential support may be found along the March-to-June uptrend line at 30,025 and the mid-May 29,678 high.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting new record highs while above the 27 May low at 29,809
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 May low at 28,567
Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart
USD/JPY flirts with the ¥160.00 region
USD/JPY continues to rise and trades in one-month highs while probing the ¥160.00 area and heading towards its April-to-May highs at ¥160.46-to-¥160.72.
Potential support below the May-to-June uptrend line may be found at the late May ¥159.65 high.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 29 May ¥159.10 low
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 20 May low at ¥158.59
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude recovery is ongoing
Brent crude bounce off last week's $89.65 per barrel low is aiming for recent highs at $97.16-to-$97.72. If exceeded , the gap with the 22 May low at $98.49 would be expected to get filled. Further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $100.08.
Minor support may be seen around the 7 May low at $94.64. Further support sits at the 25 May low at $93.29.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the $97.16-to-$100.08 resistance zone
Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 4 May high at $113.54 but above the 17 April $84.20 low
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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