Look Ahead 22/9/23: BoJ; UK retail sales; EZ PMIs; oil
After the Fed and BoE signalled the possibility of further 2023 rate hikes, the BoJ could end its negative interest rate policy next year. Brace for UK retail sales and consumer data, and PMIs from the Euro Zone, US and UK.
Sun sinking on ultra-easy monetary Japan
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong and welcome to your Look Ahead for 22 September, 2023. Friday couldn't have come any earlier. It's been such a busy week on the central bank front, but we're not done just yet. We've got Bank of Japan out with its interest rate decision.
Just showing you the dollar versus the yen here because this is a really interesting cross given that the Bank of Japan is expected to end its negative interest rate policy next year. This is according to most of the economists polled in a poll by Reuters.
This is as the market has started to talk about the demise of Japan's ultra-easy monetary settings. It's also an interesting time for this cross because it comes at a time when the US Federal Reserve has kept the door open to another rate hike potentially.
This year, traders' bets on the benchmark rate now remaining unchanged in November and December. They stood at 71% and 54% respectively, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
UK's inflation battle is not yet over - BoE
Also want to quickly check in on cable for you because it's been an interesting day on that front. The Bank of England (BoE) halted its long run of interest rate rises as Britain's economy slowed and inflation fell. However, like the US, the UK is stressing that the job and the fight against inflation is not yet done.
With that, we dovetail nicely to the GFK consumer confidence details and also retail sales data and Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial trends orders that is out on Friday. All this will give us a bird's eye view as to whether the UK consumer is starting to buckle or recover after two years of high inflation.
From the Euro Zone, UK and US, we also have manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs). These are the flash numbers.
And from the US, of particular interest to our clients is the Baker Hughes oil recount because we're seeing a lot of volatility in the oil space, especially in recent sessions, given we've had so much on both the demand and the supply side.
OPEC puts the squeeze on global oil supply
This is a view of US crude for you. This is a daily chart, and as you can see here, we've had higher highs since the middle of June. Prior to that, it has been quite choppy, giving you an hourly view as well, because with the hourly view, you can see how much volatility has been seen in this space.
However, there's probably more to come, given that prices fell in the previous session or post-Fed. This is after the Fed held rates but signalled potential future hikes, and that meant that oil prices fell after posting the biggest decline in a month in the previous session.
At the same time, we've got drawdowns in US crude stockpiles, and we've also got this concern that OPEC plus continues to reign in on the supply side.
So that's it from me for now, but do tune back in at 1.30pm every weekday for Beat the Street, where I give you the heads-up ahead of the Wall Street Open, and IG's Angela Barnes will be on at 7.30am to do the same for the European trading day on Early Morning Call. Until then, do follow us on Twitter at IG.com. This is IGTV.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Start trading forex today
Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market.
- Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse with clear, fast charts
- Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps
See an FX opportunity?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.
- Log in to your demo
- Take your position
- See whether your hunch pays off
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.
Live prices on most popular markets
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.