Fresnillo full-year results preview: Can gold offset weaker silver production?
Fresnillo reports preliminary 2025 results on 3 March 2026, with investors focused on gold performance compensating for lower silver output amid strong precious metals prices.
Fresnillo full-year earnings forecast ahead of 3 March 2026 results
Fresnillo- the world’s largest primary silver producer and a leading gold miner - is poised to release its 2025 preliminary full-year results on 3 March 2026, offering investors the first comprehensive financial snapshot after a year of mixed production trends offset by strong precious-metals prices and disciplined operational execution.
Fresnillo 5-year total return graph
Fresnillo is expected to report significantly higher revenue, pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) compared to full-year 2024 results.
Revenue:
$4.36 billion, 24.7% above its FY 2024 $3.50 billion result.
Pre-tax profit:
$1.88 billion, over twice as high as a year ago ($926.18 million).
EPS:
$1.62, 4.5 times higher than a year ago.
The upcoming figures are expected to reflect a continuation of the company’s earlier guidance and production patterns, with silver output weaker than prior years but gold performance helping to sustain revenue and cash flow momentum.
Production guidance maintained through year
Operationally, Fresnillo has maintained its production guidance for 2025, anticipating attributable silver production - including Silverstream - in the range of approximately 49.0 million to 56.0 million ounces, underpinned by a framework of mine sequencing and asset optimisation rather than volume expansion.
Attributable gold production is guided between roughly 525,000 and 580,000 ounces, while base-metals output (lead and zinc) is expected to contribute meaningfully to overall silver equivalent volumes under the existing plan.
Management reconfirmed these outlooks mid-2025, signalling confidence in the company’s ability to manage operational lags and grade variability across its major assets.
Mixed production profile through 2025
The backdrop to these estimates has been a mixed production profile through the year. A third quarter (Q3) production report showed that silver output lagged earlier periods, primarily due to lower ore grades and mine-specific constraints, including the cessation of mining at San Julián DOB and throughput challenges at Saucito and Ciénega.
Nonetheless, gold production remained resilient, trending towards the upper end of the guidance range and helping to cushion the impact of softer silver volumes on total output.
Precious metals prices support revenues
With precious-metals prices remaining robust through 2025 - especially for gold and silver - Fresnillo’s revenue outlook should benefit from favourable market conditions.
Throughout 2025, the silver price saw an exponential rise of around 150% while the gold price increased by around 65%, its strength having a disproportionate impact on cash flow and profitability due to stronger margins on gold streams.
Analysts therefore expect Fresnillo’s full-year revenue growth to outpace production declines, while Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) and margins could hold up well relative to peers.
Consensus forecasts compiled ahead of the results point to continued earnings expansion and dividend growth, with dividends expected to rise meaningfully compared to prior years.
Having said that, according to LSEG Data & Analytics analysts rate Fresnillo as a ‘hold’ with a mean long-term price target at 3622p, around 15% below current levels (as of 27/02/2026).
Fresnillo LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Although TipRanks rates Fresnillo as a ‘9 Outperform’, their analyst consensus in the past three months also points to a ‘hold’.
Fresnillo TipRanks Smart Score chart
Investors will also be watching closely for commentary on cost management, cash flow generation and capital allocation in the context of the Silverstream contract adjustments Fresnillo executed during the year.
While the buy-back of Silverstream obligations reduced future committed production, it also clarified the company’s future attributable output profile and reduced pricing overhang tied to streamed ounces.
Against this backdrop, Fresnillo’s balance-sheet discipline - including free cash flow strength and dividend policy - is likely to remain a central theme of the results narrative.
Operational detail shapes forward outlook
On the operational side, any detail on ore-grade trends and mine sequencing will be material for forecasting beyond 2025. Although 2025 guidance has been reaffirmed, underlying variability in grades and productivity at specific mines (such as Juanicipio, Fresnillo and Saucito) will shape expectations for 2026 and 2027.
With existing guidance unchanged for the next two years, sustained consistency in execution could bolster confidence in Fresnillo’s medium-term outlook.
Market consensus relatively constructive
Market consensus is relatively constructive heading into the 3 March 2026 release, with analysts forecasting meaningful earnings and revenue growth for the fiscal year and solid forward momentum driven by precious-metals prices and disciplined operational management.
However, investors will assess whether the company can translate production guidance into financial results that meet or exceed forecasts, particularly given silver’s weaker production trend and the importance of gold in the earnings mix.
What the full-year results mean for investors
In summary, Fresnillo’s FY2025 preliminary results are expected to reflect a company navigating operational headwinds in silver while capitalising on strong gold fundamentals and robust pricing.
The balance of production performance, cost control and cash-flow generation will determine whether Fresnillo can deliver on market expectations and set a firm platform for growth in 2026 and beyond.
Technical analysis of the Fresnillo share price
Over the past year the Fresnillo share price has risen by a staggering 450% and year-to-date by around 27%, significantly outperforming other UK blue chip stocks as well as precious metal prices.
Fresnillo weekly candlestick chart
The miner’s share price is seen heading back up towards its late January record high at 4472p and may reach a new record high around the 4500p mark ahead of earnings on the 3rd of March.
Fresnillo daily candlestick chart
In case of record highs being seen, the psychological 5000p mark may be reached this year.
The medium-term uptrend is deemed to remain intact while the early February low at 3,344p underpins on a daily chart closing basis.
How to invest in Fresnillo shares
Investors interested in precious metals exposure through mining equities have several options for investing in Fresnillo. Here's how to approach investing:
- Research Fresnillo's operational performance, precious metals market fundamentals and Mexican mining sector thoroughly. Understanding mining economics and commodity price drivers helps inform investment decisions.
- Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account to access UK-listed shares.
- Fresnillo trades on the London Stock Exchange under ticker FRES.
- Search for Fresnillo plc shares on the trading platform. Review current pricing, production reports and analyst recommendations before making investment decisions.
- Choose the number of shares or value of money you'd like to invest based on your portfolio allocation strategy. Consider whether to hold shares in a general account, individual savings account (ISA) or self-invested personal pension (SIPP) for tax efficiency.
- Place your trade and monitor your investment over time. Fresnillo provides quarterly production updates and semi-annual financial results, offering regular insight into operational performance.
Remember that mining stocks are volatile and influenced by precious metals prices, operational factors and geopolitical risks. Diversification across multiple holdings reduces concentration risk in individual mining companies.
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