EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH post ECB rate hike and amid encouraging China data
Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH following ECB’s rate hike and dovish outlook while China data surprises to the upside.
EUR/USD trades in 3 ½ month lows post ECB rate hike and dovish outlook
EUR/USD briefly slid below its $1.0636 May low on Thursday following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) tenth rate hike in a row to 4.00% on its deposit rate and its dovish outlook.
A drop through and daily chart close below Thursday’s low at $1.0632 could lead to a tumble towards the January and March lows at $1.0516 to $1.0484 taking place.
For now, the cross seems to hold, though, and while it does, last week’s low at $1.0687 may be revisited. Provided the currency pair remains below the last reaction high at $1.0769, seen on Tuesday, the July-to-September downtrend remains very much intact.
USD/JPY nears its 10-month high
There is no stopping USD/JPY's ascent with the cross approaching its 10-month high at ¥147.87.
A rise above this level could lead to a move towards the ¥150.00 region where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to intervene, though.
Immediate upside pressure should be maintained while USD/JPY stays above its July-to-September uptrend line at ¥146.92. While Monday’s ¥145.91 low underpins, the July uptrend remains valid.
USD/CNH consolidates below 11-month high
USD/CNH’s sell-off from its 11-month high at CN¥7.3681 last Friday, made marginally below its October 2022 peak at CN¥7.3773, has taken it back towards its early-September low at CN¥7.2392. China retail sales growth at three-month highs and its industrial output growth beating estimates have helped to push the cross lower.
The next downside target is the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at CN¥7.2444 ahead of the CN¥7.2392 low. Only if the latter were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, would an interim top be formed.
Minor resistance can now be spotted around the CN¥7.3106 late-August high.
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